- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
The decider of the 2017 State Of Origin series between Queensland and New South Wales takes place tonight from Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, and is one of the most anticipated Origin matches in recent memory.
In the 111th match in the history of State Of Origin, the Maroons are going for their 60th State Of Origin victory, and if they were to achieve this, Queensland would claim their 21st series victory in 36 years. The Blues are going for their 50th victory in the history of State Of Origin, and their 14th series victory.
The 2017 State Of Origin series has been a very interesting one, as it always is, with the away teams winning both of the first two games of the series.
However, in Origin series where one state hosted two matches, the last (and only) time that all three matches of an Origin series were won by the away team was back in 1998, where Queensland won Game 1 and Game 3 at the Sydney Football Stadium to take the series after losing Game 2 at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.
New South Wales have never achieved this feat, but will have to complete the seemingly impossible task of winning two games in Queensland in one State Of Origin series to avoid losing their 11th series in 12 years.
The Blues started the 2017 State Of Origin series in impressive fashion, scoring a 28-4 victory over the Maroons in what was their most dominant performance since Game 1 in 2002. It was an extraordinary display inspired by the performance of Andrew Fifita, whose 18 hit-ups for 183 metres, 21 tackles, two offloads and a try assist brought back memories of Queensland’s first-ever State Of Origin captain in Arthur Beetson. They crushed an inept Maroons team that was seemingly past its use-by-date.
Changes had to made for Queensland, and they were!
The returns of Billy Slater, Johnathan Thurston, and Gavin Cooper, combined with the debuts of Valentine Holmes, Jarrod Wallace, Coen Hess, and Tim Glasby was the tonic that the Maroons needed in Game Two.
However, an insipid performance from New South Wales in the last 30 minutes of Game 2, combined with one of the most courageous performances by a player in an Origin game from Thurston – who played the vast majority of the match with a badly-injured shoulder – inspired Queensland to a famous victory to set up a decider up at Suncorp Stadium.
However, the bad news for the Maroons and the game of rugby league is that Thurston won’t be playing in Game 3 tonight in what would have been his final appearance on arguably rugby league’s grandest stage.
Thurston’s career in the Origin arena comes to an end after 37 appearances for Queensland, scoring a total of 220 points, including five tries, 99 goals, which leaves him one short of becoming the first player in Origin history to kick 100 goals, two field goals, and countless amounts of match-winning plays and awe-inspiring moments.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
Darius Boyd will also be missing Game 3 with a broken thumb, while the Blues are set to field the same team for all three games of a State Of Origin series for the very first time.
There is also speculation among many people that Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, and/or Cameron Smith could all retire from State Of Origin after Game Three.
Slater has returned to top form in 2017 after missing the vast majority of 2015 and 2016 with a shoulder injury, an injury that he had to have operated on twice, and could be looking for a fitting send off tonight.
Cronk is leaving the Melbourne Storm at the end of 2017 to be closer to his partner up in Sydney. However, he hasn’t signed with any NRL club in Sydney, or close to Sydney, such as the Newcastle Knights, or decided whether or not he wants to continue playing rugby league in 2018.
Smith, while he is expected to play on, has had two below-par performances, by his standards in the first two games, and will be looking for a strong performance in Game 3 tonight to reaffirm to himself that he is still the best hooker in the game today.
So, we have a very interesting match-up that is very hard to pick!
However, in the 21 matches when a State Of Origin series is tied at one-all, Queensland have won 12 of those matches, with New South Wales winning seven, and there have been two draws.
However, when you include just the matches at Suncorp Stadium/Lang Park when a State Of Origin series is level at one-all, in those nine matches, the Maroons have won six of those, the Blues just two, and there has been a draw in those nine.
Queensland have won the last three Game 3 matches when the series has been level at one game a piece. The last time New South Wales have won a live Game 3 was back in 2005, when the Blues romped to a 32 to 10 victory over the Maroons at Suncorp Stadium in the last Origin match for the great Andrew Johns.
In Game 3 deciding matches, only seven out of those 21 matches have had a total match points score of 40 points or more, including three of the last four deciders of an Origin series.
However, in Game 3 deciding matches at Suncorp Stadium/Lang Park, five out of those nine matches have had a total match points score of 40 points or more, including the last four Game 3 deciders at Suncorp Stadium/Lang Park.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Looking at the margins of previous deciders in a State Of Origin series, 11 out of those 21 Game 3 deciders have been decided by a margin of 0-12 points, including five of the last six.
However, five of the nine deciders of a State Of Origin series at Suncorp Stadium/Lang Park have been decided by a margin of 0-12 points.
So, we have a potential epic in store for us tonight, and one that is going to be hard to pick for anyone not supporting one particular state.
For me, I am going to tip Queensland to win their 11th series in 12 years, by a point, possibly with a Cooper Cronk field goal either late in regulation time, or in extra-time.
Reckon you can pick the winning team? Build your own dream team with Draftstars daily fantasy and compete on any match. For great odds on the NRL head on over to PlayUp. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.