Does anyone remember what they were doing on 31 March 2013? I do.
It was Easter Sunday, and those who embrace the narrative would have likely been gathered with friends and family for a celebration.
Port Adelaide fans would have been celebrating, too, but for different reasons.
On a drizzly, overcast afternoon at the MCG the men from Alberton thrashed a hapless Melbourne side by 79 points. It marked a successful coaching debut for Ken Hinkley and saw a star in Ollie Wines announce himself to the competition with 24 touches, seven marks, six inside 50s and a goal.
As for the Dees, the disappointment was simply a case of rinse and repeat – 2012 saw them finish 16th and ahead of only the two expansion clubs, which were very much in their infancy. The next season would see them win just two games and end Mark Neeld’s tenure as senior coach after just five wins in 33 matches.
Fast-forward four and half years, and while some things have changed, some have stayed the same.
Ollie Wines continues to be a wrecking ball in midfield, posting career-high averages in disposals, marks, uncontested possession and inside 50s this season.
What is remarkably different, however, is the significance behind tomorrow’s clash. Whereas the aforementioned game in 2013 was between two likely bottom-four clubs, tomorrow will see one side further enhance their claims for a top-four finish and the all-important double chance.
Tactically, it’s a fascinating battle.
Both sides are strong at the coalface, with Melbourne ranked second and Port third in contested possession per game – Melbourne averages one more per game than the Power – while Port are ranked second and Melbourne fourth for clearances, with Port holding a +2 advantage.
This is intriguing in itself. Where Port have welcomed back Paddy Ryder from his doping suspension in arguably career-best form, Melbourne have been running with a makeshift ruck combination of Cam Pedersen, Tom McDonald and occasionally Jack Watts for the majority of the year after 2016 All-Australian ruckman Max Gawn missed nine games with a hamstring injury sustained in Round 3.
The arsenal of Nathan Jones, Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, Jordan Lewis, Christian Petracca and Dom Tyson proved that they can hold their own without Gawn, winning five games out of nine. Most notable of those wins was the murder of the Crows in Adelaide where they finished ahead on clearances (+11) contested possession (+16) uncontested possession (+21) tackles (+18) and inside 50s (+4) despite winning 47 fewer hit-outs.
(Image: AAP Image/David Mariuz)
It’s how the two sides move the ball that provides a contrast.
Port Adelaide aren’t as ruthless, aggressive and breathtaking as they were in 2013 and 2014, but they still play an attacking brand of footy. They lead the league in points (104.1) and inside 50s per game (70), and boast the second-highest percentage behind cross-town rivals, the Crows.
People can throw the ‘who have they beaten’ argument up as much as they like, but numbers like these, along with their midfield prowess, are hard to ignore – and compared to Melbourne they average seven more inside 50s and nine more points per game.
By comparison, Melbourne play a possession-based game, the team sitting second for disposals per game and fifth for uncontested possession per game. This is not to say that they are indirect or wasteful with ball in hand – they rank sixth for inside 50s per game – but they opt to restrict the opposition by not allowing them possession of the ball. Melbourne have a +23 advantage in disposals +22 advantage in uncontested possession in tomorrow’s clash.
While offensively both teams are quite strong, it’s the defensive battle that could prove the difference.
The Power boast the tightest defence in the league, conceding just 76 points per game. This is largely due to their ability to win the ball and keep it inside their forward half as well as the unsung heroes in Tom Jonas, Tom Clurey, Darcy Byrne-Jones, Jack Hombsch and Dan Houston playing their roles. By contrast Melbourne’s leaky defence concedes 89 points per game, the seventh most of any side.
This is what makes the midfield battle so crucial. Should Port gain the upper hand in the middle of the ground, their efficiency and offensive potency could cause Melbourne headaches.
The Dees welcome back Viney, Watts, Tyson, Christian Salem and Jack Trengove for the crucial clash, all of whom were absent for last week’s loss against the Crows in Darwin. On paper it’s arguably the strongest side that they have named all year, with Nathan Jones the only notable absentee.
Port have bizarrely omitted Jasper Pittard after last week’s belting of North Melbourne, making way for Matthew Broadbent.
The match-ups alone are mouth-watering. Ryder, Wines, Travis Boak, Brad Ebert, Sam Powell-Pepper, Chad Wingard and Jared Polec versus Gawn, Oliver, Viney, Tyson, Petracca, Lewis and Jake Melksham in the middle.
Robbie Gray versus Neville Jetta at one end, Tom Jonas on Jesse Hogan at the other.
Charlie Dixon versus Sam Frost.
Justin Westhoff versus Watts.
Following tomorrow’s game the Power face St Kilda (home), Adelaide and Collingwood (home), the Bulldogs (away) and the Suns (home) to finish the year. All games are winnable, with the showdown in Round 20 shaping as a mini final.
Melbourne have North (away in Hobart), GWS (away), St Kilda and Brisbane (home) and Collingwood to finish the year.
On the face of it both sides have fairly straightforward finishes to the year, meaning the race for a top four will only get tighter, but as this season has proven, we can never truly know what to expect in this great game of ours.
I’m backing the Power in a tight one.
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