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Cancel your weekend plans: Round 20 is going to answer plenty of 2017's AFL questions

Dustin Martin is on fire at the moment and is a hot property. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
1st August, 2017
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2210 Reads

Can a round of football live up to the madness of late June’s four-day barnstormer? We’re about to find out. The AFL’s Round 20 slate is juicy from go to woe, a festival of football worthy of our full attention.

Saturday night might be the opportunity for a reprieve. North Melbourne host Collingwood at Etihad Stadium, while Fremantle host Gold Coast at Subiaco Oval. Neither game has material finals implications, even if the maths says they may.

Use this time to get off the couch, talk to your loved ones, take your dog for a walk, check the world hasn’t been blown to pieces by a mad dictator – the things that are important most every other weekend of the year.

Otherwise, you will be watching football. This is not a prediction, it is a demand.

You will be watching football, because you have to. It will be every bit as compelling, tense, unpredictable and as glorious as practically each day of football since Round 14.

While Saturday night may be on the slower side of the spectrum, the other seven games on the slate all have material implications for ladder positions, from first through to 12th. In 48 short hours, there are 21 hours of meaningful, end-of-season football to be broadcast.

If you’re a sap like me, you will record one of the overlapping games and watch the other live with a couple of old bank cards covering the score update widget in the bottom right-hand corner of the screen. I have done this less in 2017, but the now-redundant Qantas Frequent Flyer card and the pre-children Medicare card have been brought out with increased frequency of late. Madness is the price you pay for addiction, people tell me.

Rather than go deep on one team or issue, the spectre of the weekend to come looms so large that it is appropriate to take a more short-term, blinkered view of the world.

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We will run the gauntlet in priority order, from what looms as the most boring and mundane game to most interesting and important.

Honestly, no game can be written off completely these days – Adelaide just came back from a 50-point deficit and tied the game with a park mark and goal right on the siren. But if you don’t feel like making that indent in your couch just that little deeper, skip ahead to the appropriate number of games that you can reasonably get away with sitting through.

Priority #9: Fremantle versus Gold Coast
Subiaco Oval, Saturday, 7:40pm (AEST)

The runt of the litter, the only material thing that is worth watching out for in this game is the continued re-emergence of Nat Fyfe as one of the best midfielders in the competition.

After a slow start, Fyfe is back to his claw-hammering best having averaged 29 disposals, eight clearances, 18 contested possessions and almost eight score involvements a game in the past month. Those are strikingly similar to his 2015 Brownlow year averages on all counts.

Against a weakened Gold Coast midfield, which will surely be missing Gary Ablett Junior once again, Fyfe could run riot. That’s always worth the price of admission.

Fyfe-Fremantle-AFL

AAP Image/Julian Smith

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Priority #8: North Melbourne versus Collingwood
Etihad Stadium, Saturday, 7:25pm (AEST)

The other Saturday night game has some very vague finals relevance – Collingwood can make eighth spot if they win out and almost every team above them wins one game or less for the remainder of the year. Vague might be generous. North Melbourne cannot make the final eight, given eighth spot is five wins ahead of them and there are only four games remaining.

Instead, we can see if last weekend’s win against the Dees was all a ruse by North to lose the stench of a hard tank. Collingwood’s midfield has been on fire the past few weeks, and when it is up and running – even without its maestro Scott Pendlebury – magical things can happen.

Adam Treloar is sure to strap on his rocket boots at least four times with the ‘Roos allowing a wide open stance through the middle of the ground.

Priority #7: Brisbane Lions versus Western Bulldogs
Gabba, Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)

This is a measure of how ridiculous this weekend looks on paper: the Western Bulldogs can genuinely launch their name back into the conversation for seventh or eighth spot with a percentage-boosting win against the fading Lions.

The Dogs haven’t blown out a team all season, and with a percentage of just over 100 will be looking to back up their strong scoring display against Essendon from the weekend just past. Brisbane represent a solid opportunity to do so, given they’ll likely leave the field as open as the Dons did.

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It will be a challenge, but the Dogs could overtake West Coast (all things being equal) with an 89-point victory. That’s not going to happen, but it could, and would add another layer of complexity to the finals puzzle.

Brisbane are a fun watch for their youth, Dayne Zorko and that they leave the ground wide open and allow incisive, attacking football. They’re like a slice of artisan toast at breakfast; Brisbane helps make great things happen.

Dayne Zorko of the Brisbane Lions AFL

AAP Image/Dan Peled

Priority #6: Essendon versus Carlton
MCG, Saturday, 2:10pm (AEST)

Carlton’s season is tailspinning as it did last year, the Blues on a six-game losing streak and conceding three of their six largest scores of the season in the past four weeks.

This is fine and understandable given Carlton has added more and more youth to its team by the week. They’ve also gone to market without Patrick Cripps since Round 17, which is not helping.

Essendon are still my pick for eighth spot, with this weekend’s game the start of their relatively weak run home. Pending next weekend’s game against the Crows, the Dons should not see their eighth-ranked percentage fall from here, meaning it’s all about the wins.

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Zach Merrett will continue his 2016 All Australian Snub Revenge Tour, Joe Daniher will stomp all over the young Carlton defence, and Michael Hurley might set a new record for intercept possessions.

This one is worth the watch for the Daniher show alone. Add in the traditional rivalry element, and… wait this is only number six on the list?

Now it gets really tough.

Priority #5: Greater Western Sydney versus Melbourne
Manuka Oval, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)

The Giants are still in a funk, and it’s impossible to tease out whether this is form, coaching or the constant forced chops and changes to the line-up due to injury. On their home away from home, where they’ve won seven of their past eight outings, and against an opponent who itself has found the going a bit tougher of late, this is the chance GSW have been looking for to improve sentiment towards them.

In their favour too is the looming inclusion of Brett Deledio for his first game as a Giant. He looks set to take the place of injured Jeremy Cameron in the forward line. As the weeks go by we get closer and closer to a ‘full strength’ GWS line up, whatever that means in 2017.

For the Dees, a win in what is by far their toughest remaining game will put them firmly in the frame for a top-four spot. With matches against St Kilda, Brisbane and Collingwood to come – all in their home town – Melbourne are already looking like a good shout for the double chance. Victory against a potential finals match-up would almost guarantee it.

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This game is priority number one for me, but that’s because Melbourne are vying for the number two spot on my football fan ticket behind West Coast. The Dees haven’t quite dislodged the Giants yet, but every time I see Jayden Hunt kick 60 metres on the run to Christian Petracca, they get a little closer.

Christian Petracca Melbourne Demons AFL 2017 tall

AAP Image/Tony McDonough

Priority #4: St Kilda versus West Coast
Etihad Stadium, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST – or 2pm WST if you don’t have Foxtel)

Sunday’s matinee performance – which is actually an afternoon full-tape delay replay if you are in the west and don’t want to shell out $60 a month for pay TV access – is high on leverage but more middling on quality football potential.

It looms as an elimination game for the Saints, given they still have Melbourne and Richmond to come (both at the MCG). With nine wins and a middling percentage, a lot would have to go right for them to leapfrog somebody and work their way into the bottom half of the eight.

A win against the Eagles opens up that possibility a smidge, although St Kilda would still have to win two of their last three and hope two of their fellow nine or ten win teams fail to break above 11. The Saints are at mathematical-chance stage, which is football speak for finished.

Meanwhile, West Coast can move to 11 wins with a date against the fading Carlton at home the week after. We have learnt not to count eagles before they hatch this season, but four points against the Blues on West Coast’s home deck should be written in a very dark pencil. From there, the Eagles likely need to win one of their remaining two games to lock themselves into the final eight, or drop both by moderate margins and hope their percentage gets them in.

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Stakes are high. Quality of football may be more middling. The Saints and Eagles have had a torrid month or so respectively – but someone has to win, right?

Priority #3: Geelong versus Sydney
Kardinia Park, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)

This week’s Friday Night Forecast will be a little longer than usual. We’ll deal with Cats-Swans then, but suffice to say this game will either significantly boost Geelong’s claim on a top-two spot or keep the Swans in the hunt for a top-four spot.

We will also get to see just how important Patrick Dangerfield is to the Cats, with the reigning Brownlow medallist missing his first game since crossing to Geelong in the 2015 off season.

Priority #2: Adelaide versus Port Adelaide
Adelaide Oval, Sunday, 4:40pm (AEST)

A Showdown is always must-watch football theatre. The early season South Australian derby was one of the better games of the first half of the season – it confirmed Port Adelaide were going to be a player in the 2017 season, and was an early season test of Adelaide’s number one seeding.

This time around, the stakes are high. The Crows can practically sew up a home qualifying final with victory, given they’ll either maintain their 1.5-game lead over third place (if GWS win) or move to 2.5-win buffer (if GWS lose). Conversely, a Port Adelaide win keeps their double-chance chance alive for another week, while closing the gap between the Crows and chasing Cats and Giants.

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We don’t need no more leverage.

In a narrative sense, Port Adelaide is still considered one of this season’s pretenders – along with another top-ranked team who we’ll get to in a moment. That’s understandable, given Port’s form against teams in the top eight versus the rest of the competition is so radically different.

It is partly because the Power play such an aggressive press that the worst teams in the competition struggle to break through; equally the best teams can cut them up.

Adelaide are one of those teams. The Crows carry depth on their half back line which will make them a challenge to contain. In Round 3, Port Adelaide won the territory (58-53 inside 50s) battle, but the Crows held the ball for much longer (+10 minutes) and were able to break through for enough quality entries to score 100 points.

Neither team has made many macro-level changes since that outing, so we can expect more of the same, and a likely Adelaide victory.

Charlie Cameron Adelaide Crows Showdown AFL 2015

AAP Image/Ben Macmahon

Priority #1: Richmond versus Hawthorn
MCG, Sunday, 3:20pm (AEST)

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If you are going to watch one game of football this weekend – and you aren’t, remember? – I implore you to make it the Sunday afternoon match up between Richmond and Hawthorn. Why?

Hawthorn has won five and drawn one of its past seven games, with a percentage of 120 per cent. If any one of half a dozen scoring opportunities they manufactured in the final quarter of their Round 17 game against Geelong had dropped, the Hawks would potentially be playing for a spot in the top eight (pending other results this round).

Their form is sustainable, Alastair Clarkson is a genius, and all of a sudden Jaeger O’Meara looks like a tasty helping of icing rather than a badly burnt sponge cake.

Richmond are yet to convince the football community of their credentials, despite winning 12 of 18 games and losing four of their seven others by less than 12 points. The league’s scepticism would seem rooted in Richmond’s lack of scoring punch – they have 11 wins despite a net margin after schedule strength is taken into account of 5.1 points.

Both teams have plenty to prove, and plenty to play for. The Hawks and their odd number of wins still have a chance to sneak into the final eight if they get to 12 wins – given they’re currently on eight it would require them to win out. Such are the fine margins of this season, 11 wins will not get them there even with the draw eliminating their meagre percentage.

By contrast, a Richmond victory propels them to 12 wins and a potential top-four spot come the end of the round. With Geelong, Fremantle and St Kilda to come, a win now is extraordinarily important.

Luke Hodge won’t be there, but Richmond’s likely Brownlow medallist, Dustin Martin, provides enough entertainment on his own. And there’s the key position battles at both ends – the wily Jack Riewoldt against the young Hawks, and Hawthorn’s renovated forward line against the best key defender duo, of Alex Rance and David Astbury.

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There it is, your weekend laid out like a fine, nine-course French banquet for your culinary pleasure.

Have I got the order right? It likely doesn’t matter – almost every game this weekend is appointment viewing, and come Monday we might finally know a little bit about the order of things in this incredible season of football.

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