Back in 2001 in his ESPN.com column, Bill Simmons introduced a concept he called the Ewing Theory.
In basic terms, the Ewing Theory is when a team is inexplicably better with their star player out of the game or gone from the team altogether. Simmons says a friend first noticed the phenomenon in the 90s, when Patrick Ewing’s teams improved without him on the court, and that they’ve been developing the idea ever since.
In the ensuing years, they added two elements that they say are necessary for the Ewing Theory to be in effect. First, that the star receives a lot of attention from the media and fans, despite never winning anything substantial; and second, that the team is immediately written off when said star player leaves.
Now think about this NBA offseason. Is there a team that had a superstar, both highly scrutinised and widely praised, that was automatically assumed to make his team better? Did that superstar never win a title, or even better, never make it past the second round of the playoffs? And to top it off, has that player now abandoned ship, with his former team forgotten and disregarded from the NBA elite?
When it comes to teams treading water in the good-but-not-great level of the NBA, there’s really only one choice. Chris Paul and the Los Angeles Clippers tick all the boxes of the Ewing Theory, as Simmons observed in his podcast earlier this week. It remains to be seen if Paul can shake the postseason jitters he and his teams have long suffered, or if the Clippers can thrive, or even survive, now that he’s gone. But is there a chance they could be better without him this season?
The short answer is yes. The long answer is a little more complicated.
This season’s Clippers are equal parts intrigue and uncertainty, and yet they’ve been lost in the shuffle of a wild NBA offseason.
(Wiki Commons)
Their roster is surprisingly well-stocked despite the loss of their star. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are still there as the centrepieces. Danilo Gallinari was signed over the offseason, and when healthy he could be the floor-spacing forward the Clippers have long been yearning for.
Milos Teodosic was an under-the-radar good signing, until his early pre-season performances put him front and centre on every fan’s radar.
Why do all the best passers in the world come from Serbia? pic.twitter.com/Trb4FpnVKZ
— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) October 4, 2017
The return haul in the Paul trade may not have replaced his star power, but it did add some much-needed depth. Patrick Beverley is one of the best defenders in the league, Lou Williams is a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate, and Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell are high-upside youngsters who can contribute right away.
The overhaul doesn’t end with their personnel – the Clippers should also undergo a stylistic change this season. While Paul is a phenomenal player, he is a classic slow-down point guard. He needs the ball in his hands to be most effective, with plenty of pick-and-rolls and half-court sets.
This meant that, despite having one of the league’s most explosive transition duos in Jordan and Griffin (Jordan was in the 98th percentile in the league for transition scoring efficiency last season, Griffin the 77th), the Clippers ranked 16th in the league for pace. They got out and ran the fast break when it was wide open, but once in the half court they ran a lot more long sets than you might expect.
With Paul, that was the most effective way to play. Without him that should change, and the ball movement should increase. Coach Doc Rivers even said as much in a July press conference shortly after Paul’s departure. Rivers has never been a high-pace, non-stop ball movement style of coach, but if his words this pre-season are to be believed then he’s at least willing to try and adapt.
An up-tempo offense with constant ball movement should bring out the best in Griffin. He is one of only 13 players in NBA history to be 6-foot-9 or taller and have an assist rate higher than 25 per cent. That’s an incredible stat, and with the freedom to now run the team’s offense, Griffin could have an incredible season.
Rivers has hinted that Griffin could be the team’s de-facto point guard at times this season. A line-up with Griffin, Jordan and three shooters could cause some serious problems for opponents.
Just imagine Griffin running a pick and roll with Jordan. The triple threat of Jordan rolling to the basket, Griffin dishing to an open shooter or just taking it to the rim himself would leave little room for error for defenders.
Teodosic could also be a key to the team’s new identity. He has long been regarded as one of the best players outside of the NBA, playing professionally in Russia, Greece and Serbia over the past 13 years.
During that time, he dazzled with his penchant for flair over simplicity and his extraordinary passing vision. NBA fans have already seen glimpses of those traits in his pre-season play, but what they may be less familiar with is his solid shooting (career 38.5 per cent three-point shooter) and overall scoring ability (16.1 points per game over the last two seasons).
Pre-season games are a very small and unreliable sample size, but Teodosic appears willing to embrace a lesser role in the NBA. He should start immediately, and he’ll ensure the Lob City moniker doesn’t leave Los Angeles just yet.
Enough highlight plays and high-assist games could even have him challenging for Rookie of the Year by the end of the season.
Beverley is generally seen as a point guard, but he spent last season playing alongside James Harden in Houston as an elite three-and-D specialist. He should play the same role for the Clippers, but will also see more playmaking opportunities without such a ball-dominant presence alongside him.
Jordan is one of the league’s elite rim protectors, rebounders and above-the-rim finishers. He and Beverley will give the team their defensive identity, and he’ll still have a steady diet of lobs from Teodosic and Griffin to keep him motivated and running the floor offensively.
A Clippers starting five of Teodosic, Beverley, Gallinari, Griffin and Jordan would not only be extremely fun to watch, but also has the potential to be very successful. They have more bench depth than in previous years, as well as plenty of line-up versatility and skilled multi-positional players.
Health will be a major concern. Griffin hasn’t played a full season since his rookie year, with various knee, back and leg injuries keeping him off the court. Gallinari has never done so, missed a whole season in 2013-14 with a knee injury, and has missed at least 19 games every year since. Patrick Beverley’s bulldog mentality has led to a slew of niggling injuries over his career, and Teodosic isn’t used to the physicality and extra athleticism of the NBA.
And then there’s the biggest problem, the same one that’s looming over every other team in the league; the Warriors. The Clippers can’t compete with them, but in all likelihood, neither can anyone else.
But the Clippers have enough firepower and versatility to fight it out with the next tier of teams, and in the current NBA climate, after losing the best point guard of this generation, that’s an achievement in itself.
None of this is to say that the Clippers will be better without Paul. It’s hard to quantify the impact of such a great player until he’s gone, and a lot will depend on how the new faces fit in and how the old faces adjust. But a new system may be enough to keep them relevant in the loaded Western Conference.
The Clippers lost Chris Paul. They won’t be leaving the playoffs. They won’t be taking a step back. And they’ll be a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
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