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Opinion
Depending on who you believed last season, Canberra over-achieved to make the second round of the finals or should have been contenders in the top four.
Raiders coach Ricky Stuart reckoned they would have been in the upper echelon if not for an early season-ending injury to hooker Josh Hodgson and halfback Jamal Fogarty missing the first half of the year with a knee complaint.
They enter 2023 with a clean bill of health and lofty aspirations but there are still question marks over whether the Green Machine is powerful enough to be considered a genuine premiership possibility.
The Raiders will go as far as five-eighth Jack Wighton takes them – if he displays the form that took them to the 2019 Grand Final and earned him the Dally M Medal the following season, they could be in contention come the pointy end of the season.
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Whether he and Latrell Mitchell were play-wrestling or actually fighting when they were arrested on the weekend will be for the courts to decide but it is the kind of incident which could lead to a ban of a game or two based on NRL sanctions handed down in recent years.
Wighton was rubbed out for 10 weeks by the NRL and fined $30,000 for a much more serious matter after he pleaded guilty to five counts of assault and public urination after an incident outside a Canberra nightspot.
Two incidents in five years hardly makes him a serial offender but if he is unavailable for whatever reason or unable to produce peak form on a consistent basis, Canberra are destined to finish on the fringe of the top eight without being a legit title threat.
Jack Wighton of the Raiders (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Lightning doesn’t strike twice so the first thing Raiders fans should do is to forget about their memorable surge to the 2019 decider and expect it to happen again. Parramatta fans drove themselves madder than usual a decade earlier thinking Jarryd Hayne and the Eels would be able to replicate a similar purple patch.
The centre of the Canberra universe is Wighton and their spine has been built around supporting his game-busting ability.
They have an organising halfback in Jamal Fogarty who will look after the bulk of the playmaking duties then take a back seat to Wighton in the big moments.
Their fullback is a work in progress in young gun Xavier Savage but if he continues his upward trend, his attacking spark can produce plenty of points from the back.
Hooker is well covered but not necessarily well. They have three options – Zac Woolford, who cemented a starting spot midway through last season; bench specialist Tom Starling, their best offensive option and recent recruit Danny Levi, the most experienced and perhaps best all-round candidate.
(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
One of these three will need to stand out for Canberra to rise up the ladder.
Elsewhere on the park, Stuart’s side is stacked with forward strength in the form of Joseph Tapine, Josh Papali’i, Hudson Young and Elliott Whitehead, a capable backline and a decent amount of depth in a year where it has been diluted competition wide due to the expansion into Redcliffe.
Canberra’s attack was average at best last season and with Levi and Knights forward Pasami Saulo their only recruits wth NRL experience, any improvement in the team’s scoring ability will have to come from within.
Last season they were eighth in points scored, eighth in tries and 11th in line breaks. If they were any more middle of the road they’d be a median strip.
Xavier Savage. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
And it’s not like their defence was elite – they were 11th for points conceded.
Savage, not just because of his first name, brings the X-factor. He’s quick, elusive and plays off-the-cuff. Apart from Starling, the Raiders have very few other options who can create an attacking raid out of nothing.
Not enough raid in the Raiders, who would have thought?
They are still a very big pack, perhaps not mobile enough.
Young is a dynamic edge runner, Tapine is coming off a career-best year and Corey Harawira-Naera has his moments but Canberra don’t have many members of their pack who are nimble enough to keep up with the more compact, agile forwards in the Cameron Murray/Reuben Cotter style who shone last year.
Only one match in the national capital in the first month with lengthy trips to Townsville, Redcliffe and Newcastle.
They have lucked out overall with six of the eight teams they play once are 2022 finalists – Cowboys, Panthers, Eels, Storm, Rabbitohs, Roosters – as well as the Sea Eagles and Titans.
Of the sides they play twice, Cronulla – who they beat both times last year – are the only club coming off a finals campaign.
Wighton is no spring chicken after turning 30 on the weekend in rather inauspicious circumstances.
If he is to cement a legacy as a Raiders legend up there with the great names of the 1990s, he needs a premiership ring.
He’s a much better player when he’s taking the line on – he hasn’t run the ball as much the past two seasons compared to his two career-best years prior. Stuart needs Fogarty feeding him in the right spots to power through gaps.
Tapine was arguably the top of the NRL props last year and caused havoc through the middle of the ruck, running for 165m per game, 40m more than his previous best effort in a season.
Savage is still learning the ins and outs of being an NRL fullback at 20 with only 22 matches under his belt but after bulking up to add a few more kilos to his frame in the off-season, can give Canberra a point of difference in attack if he can stay injury free.
He was barely used at Origin time by Queensland and has been overtaken by Tapine as the club’s spearhead of the pack. Although it feels like he’s been around forever, he’s still only 30 but after his worst season for running metres per game since 2016, he needs to reassert his position as one of the NRL’s top props.
Young centre Harley Smith-Shields impressed with three tries in seven games late in 2021 to look like a star of the future but a torn ACL early last year wiped out an entire season.
He re-signed last July until the end of 2025, that will make it 12 seasons in the role if he sees out that deal. It would take a disastrous campaign this year for the Raiders to punt one of the club’s favourite sons.
Ricky Stuart (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
The Raiders are a lowly ninth at $21 to win the title with PlayUp, behind all the other finals sides from last season, as well as Brisbane.
On the fringe of the top eight again looks their destiny for 2023. They’re solid across the park but don’t appear to have the attacking firepower to keep pace with the best teams in the league.
1 Daine Laurie
2 Charlie Staines
3 Tommy Talau
4 Brent Naden
5 David Nofoaluma
6 Adam Doueihi
7 Luke Brooks
8 Stefano Utoikamanu
9 Apisai Koroisau
10 David Klemmer
11 John Bateman
12 Isaiah Papali’i
13 Joe Ofahengaue
Interchange
14 Jake Simpkin
15 Shawn Blore
16 Alex Twal
17 Alex Seyfarth
Other squad members: Fonua Pole, Apisalome Saukuru, Brandon Tumeth, Junior Tupou, Justin Matamua, Ken Maumalo, Rua Ngatikaura, Sione Fainu, Starford To’a, Asu Kepaoa, Triston Reilly, Tukimihia Simpkins.
| Round | Opponent | Date | Time | Venue |
| 1 | Cowboys | Saturday, March 4 | 5.30pm | QCB Stadium |
| 2 | Dolphins | Saturday, March 11 | 5.30pm | Kayo Stadium |
| 3 | Sharks | Sunday, March 19 | 6.15pm | GIO Stadium |
| 4 | Knights | Sunday, March 26 | 4.05pm | McDonald Jones Stadium |
| 5 | Panthers | Friday, March 31 | 6pm | GIO Stadium |
| 6 | Broncos | Saturday, April 8 | 7.35pm | Suncorp Stadium |
| 7 | Dragons | Sunday, April 16 | 2pm | GIO Stadium |
| 8 | Bye | |||
| 9 | Dolphins | Saturday, April 29 | 3pm | McDonalds Park, Wagga |
| 10 | Bulldogs | Friday, May 5 | 6pm | Suncorp Stadium |
| 11 | Eels | Saturday, May 13 | 7.35pm | GIO Stadium |
| 12 | Sea Eagles | Sunday, May 21 | 4.05pm | GIO Stadium |
| 13 | Rabbitohs | Saturday, May 27 | 7.35pm | Accor Stadium |
| 14 | Tigers | Friday, June 2 | 8pm | Campbelltown Sports Stadium |
| 15 | Warriors | Friday, June 9 | 6pm | GIO Stadium |
| 16 | Bye | |||
| 17 | Roosters | Sunday, June 25 | 6.15pm | Allianz Stadium |
| 18 | Titans | Saturday, July 1 | 3pm | GIO Stadium |
| 19 | Dragons | Friday, July 7 | 8pm | WIN Stadium |
| 20 | Bye | |||
| 21 | Warriors | Friday, July 21 | 6pm | Mt Smart Stadium |
| 22 | Knights | Saturday, July 29 | 3pm | GIO Stadium |
| 23 | Tigers | Sunday, August 6 | 4.05pm | GIO Stadium |
| 24 | Storm | Sunday, August 13 | 2pm | AAMI Park |
| 25 | Bulldogs | Sunday, August 20 | 4.05pm | GIO Stadium |
| 26 | Broncos | Saturday, August 26 | 7.35pm | GIO Stadium |
| 27 | Sharks | Sunday, September 3 | 4.05pm | PointsBet Stadium |