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For those who like to analyse trends in the game, the notion of ‘forward dominance’ is one which attracts a great deal of interest. That notion has changed considerably from the days of the 1970s and ’80s to the current, professional era.
Corris Thomas, the well-known IRB statistical consultant, reckons that the proportion of scrums to breakdowns, which he calculated at 2:3 in the mid-80s, had changed to 2:9 by the turn of the millennium, and now runs at 2:15 in the current era.
Where front rows were direct contact for a full eleven minutes of the famous 1973 game between the Barbarians and All Blacks, during the 2007 World Cup that average was down to a mere 154 seconds.
His study revealed that, when the number of free kicks and penalties were deducted from the average of 15 scrums per game, there were only eight bits of usable possession likely to be made available, in total, to the two scrum-halves during a game.
Corris came to the conclusion that the scrum had a much-diminished actual role in the game, but the new reality was often slow to be reflected in the attitudes of modern coaches – most of whom had, after all, been brought up in the amateur game.
The exceptions to the rule were (1) the evident strength needed at five-metre scrums either near your own goal-line or that of the opposition, and (2) the ability to influence refereeing perception and win the penalty or free-kick lottery that can derive from scrums.
This new understanding received a vigorous road-test in two big internationals over the weekend, between Australia and Italy at Suncorp Stadium, and the first Test between the British and Irish Lions and New Zealand in Auckland.
At Eden Park, both sides won all of their own scrums (eight by the All Blacks and four by the Lions), while the All Blacks lost five of their own lineout throws – a 61.5 per cent win rate compared to the Lions’ 92.9 per cent (13 out of 14) percentage.
In the old days, that would have been a conclusive victory for the Lions tight forwards. Not so in the modern game. The critical evidence was buried deep in the ball-carrying and breakdown stats:
| Team | Forward ball-carries | Total Metres | Average metres-per-carry |
| New Zealand | 83 | 210 | 2.53 |
| British and Irish Lions | 52 | 99 | 1.9 |
Based on the work of their forwards, the All Blacks kept the ball at 127 of their own 131 breakdowns, for a 97 per cent retention rate and overall 61 per cent possession ‘dominance’.
By way of contrast, in the backs, the Lions came out statistically on top, with a 5.1-metre average-per-carry compared to New Zealand’s 4.1.
Therefore, despite the memorable visual impact of the All Blacks’ one dominant scrum of the game, which led to their second try scored by Rieko Ioane, it was their domination on the carry and in the contact zone, not at set-piece, which gave real meaning to ‘forward dominance’ on the day.
The scrums from the Australia-Italy match also supported Corris Thomas’ argument about the relative importance of five-metre scrums and the need to win the ‘penalty lottery’.
The Wallabies conceded seven penalties (and one yellow card for persistent infringement by Toby Smith) at scrum time without winning any themselves, and four of those (including the yellow card) occurred at scrums five metres out from either goal-line.
At the same time, the game included four tries from scrums (two to each side), and three of those came from first phase:
Three of the tries derived from scrums where the referee ‘saved’ the set-piece, twice by allowing the ball to be played at collapsed scrums (35th and 44th minutes), once by allowing a quick play-the-ball after a free kick had been awarded (14th minute).
At the penalty scrums, the Wallabies had real problems down their left side, whether it was starter Scott Sio or his replacement Toby Smith packing against the magnificently-named Azzurri tight-head prop Simone Ferrari.
Ferrari’s ability to maintain a dynamic low position, and then move inside off the loosehead’s shoulder, forcing either a hinge or a collapse, magnified the scrum’s importance in the match as a whole.
At Australia’s very first feed, Ferrari won the battle of refereeing perception by forcing the scrum forward on his side:
Technically Ferrari has popped out of the top of the set-piece first, but because the Azzurri scrum has moved forward half a metre and the Wallabies have been unable to hook the ball back from the tunnel, it is Sio who is penalised for pulling out of the scrum and dropping to his knees.
As so often happens, the first scrum sets the pattern of decision-making for the rest of the game. At the first set of scrums near the Wallaby goal-line, Ferrari is very flat and low, but Sio’s shoulders are marginally higher than his hips. At the same time, his left (binding) arm is low and this gives Ferrari the opportunity to manipulate his body height and angle.
As Ferrari shifts inside in the second frame, Sio’s hips start to ride up and kick out, his left leg straightens and his head drops lower. He has lost all dynamism, all the flex and power in his body shape. Ferrari is able to continue his ‘journey’ through on to hooker Stephen Moore unimpeded.
Matters did not improve when Toby Smith came to replace Scott Sio in the 48th minute – if anything they got rather worse. As soon as he trotted onto the field, Smith suffered the same woes that had befallen his teammate:
It is very much the same picture as Sio’s – shoulders slightly out of the same plane as the hips, a low left arm bind which forces instability and a ‘hinge’ when the pressure is applied by Ferrari.
Two Italian feeds later, and the degree to which Toby Smith’s tribulations had increased were obvious:
Smith’s hips are once again on a lower plane than his shoulders, and his head has worked its way further outside the set-piece to ease the pressure from Ferrari.
This is a sign that the loosehead can no longer defend his hooker adequately, and that the opposing tighthead is getting an easy ride. All he can do is pull further away from Moore as the pressure increases – his head is resting on Ferrari’s right hip and his own backside has drifted out to the point where it can no longer transmit the force applied by the men behind him.
The final and unkindest cut of all arrived in the 74th minute, at a scrum close to the Australian goal-line.
Here Smith has his head in the scrum, but it is positioned directly underneath his shoulders and he is bent double with his chin stuck to his chest. His spine is nowhere near being a straight line from the base, to the top of his neck, and there is nowhere else for Smith to go but down under pressure.
You can almost feel the blowtorch heat coming on in the second frame as his chin is welded down onto his chest!
Having already warned Sio and Smith so many times for repeated infringements, referee Matthew Carley had no option but to send the latter to the bin. With Italy only 28-27 behind on the scoreboard at the time, it could easily have cost the Wallabies the game.
Summary
In Corris Thomas’ view, the scrum has diminished in importance as ball-in-play time has grown and the ratio of scrums to breakdowns has changed in the professional era.
Now it ranks behind several other elements of ‘forward dominance’ such as the ability to claim the ball at lineouts and restarts, and above all, the ability to win collisions and control the contact zone.
You can see his point. In the first Test at Eden Park, the All Blacks didn’t achieve superiority in the scrum except for one example, and they lost 40 per cent of their own lineout throws, but they dominated the breakdown and the area of the Lions’ defence they had selected to attack with their forwards (the first four defenders closest to the ruck) on the carry.
That was forward dominance and it was not related to set-piece.
The ratio of scrums to breakdowns in the Australia-Italy game was much higher – one scrum to every seven breakdowns as opposed to 1:17 at Eden Park.
The game was slower, the quality was lower and the scrum came back into its own – particularly with play encouraged from broken set-pieces (collapses) and a high proportion of scrums near the goal-line.
The value of having a Ferrari rather than a Ford was fully pointed in those situations, and the Wallabies need to find some models with more horsepower under the bonnet urgently if they are to contest the forthcoming Rugby Championship on even terms.