Tipping the finalists in this year’s Super 14
Roar Guru By Greg Russell, 7 May 2009 Greg Russell is a Roar Guru
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The Waratahs' Tatafu Polota-Nau is tackled determined Western Force defence during the Super 14 match between the Waratahs and the Western Force at the Sydney Football Stadium, Saturday, April 18, 2009. Western Force beat the Waratahs 15-14. AAP Image/Dean Lewins
For weeks now, the refrain from the pundits has been, “This is the most even Super 14 competition ever, the coming weekend’s matches are crucial.” Last Friday, in a moment of clarity, I realised that last weekend’s matches really could have settled everything.
What was my reasoning and was I correct?
Firstly, I realized that two teams at the top of the table and in very strong form, the Hurricanes and Bulls, were hosting hot-and-cold contenders just outside the top four, the Blues and Western Force respectively.
So on the basis of form and home-ground advantage, it seemed reasonable to conclude that the Hurricanes and Bulls would consolidate their positions in the top four and end the chances of the teams from Auckland and Perth.
Correct!
Similarly, it always seemed likely that the Sharks, at home to the admirable but limited Highlanders, would consolidate their position.
Also correct.
Then there was a series of matches featuring top four contenders away from home against teams mostly in good form: Waratahs against the Cheetahs, who had just beaten the Crusaders; the Chiefs against the Stormers, who had just had a good win in Dunedin; the Brumbies against Queensland, who were coming off a top-class triumph in Auckland; and the Crusaders in Johannesburg.
Given the law of averages, and the well-known advantages of playing at home, it seemed a reasonable bet that there would only be one or two away wins in these four matches. This would leave the winner(s) well placed to make the top four and the losers either out of the running or struggling.
As it turns out, all four of these potentially decisive matches were won by the away team, in three cases in emphatic, bonus-point fashion.
This, incidentally, suggests that psychologists may well be correct when they state that home-ground advantage is almost entirely a mental phenomenon: the away team accepts that defeat away from one’s home fans is tolerable, while vice versa for the home team.
In the above cases, the away teams knew that defeat was intolerable, and they played accordingly.
Whatever, the result of all these away wins is that my moment of clarity did not come to fruition, and we still have a log jam.
Here are table positions and remaining matches for teams in contention:
1. Hurricanes (39 points): Chiefs (away), Reds (home)
2. Chiefs (37 points): Hurricanes (home), Brumbies (home)
3. Bulls (37 points): Cheetahs (home), Sharks (away)
4. Sharks (35 points): NSW (home), Bulls (home)
5. NSW (32 points): Sharks (away), Lions (away)
6. Crusaders (32 points): Reds (home), Blues (away)
7. Brumbies (32 points): Blues (home), Chiefs (away)
8. Blues (31 points): Brumbies (away), Crusaders (home)
Several things stand out about this situation:
1. Of the top four teams, only the Hurricanes and Bulls are to face what can be considered a relatively easy opponent, the Reds and the Cheetahs respectively. Thus, they can be regarded as top four certainties and top two probables.
2. Chiefs Vs Hurricanes and Sharks Vs Bulls are intra-country, intra-top four, blockbuster clashes that will be decisive in determining positions in the top four.
Because there can only be one winner in each of these matches, they make it highly likely that the top two at the end of the competition will consist of a New Zealand and a South African team (most likely the Hurricanes and Bulls), and thus that the final will be a New Zealand-South Africa affair.
3. Of the top four teams, the Sharks are the most vulnerable.
Yes, they are at home, but they have difficult opponents, their form has been very ordinary for a month, and they have lost half their backline to injury (Jacobs, Steyn) and suspension (Kockott).
4. The Brumbies and Blues are coming from furthest behind, have difficult draws, and are showing inconsistent form. So they are unlikely to make the top four.
5. Most likely to supplant the Sharks in the top four are the Waratahs and the Crusaders. And, of these, two the Crusaders are the more likely, because they at least have a match that can be considered relatively easy to win, hosting the injury-ravaged, lowly Reds.
6. Sharks Vs Waratahs is a pivotal match, not just for both teams, but also for the Crusaders. An irony is that the Waratahs winning this match might end up enabling the Crusaders to make the top four instead.
Here are some tips:
1. The Hurricanes and Bulls will win both their remaining matches and finish as the top two
2. The Chiefs will beat the Brumbies, who are poor travellers to New Zealand, and thereby finish third
3. The Sharks or the Crusaders or Waratahs will finish fourth, but I cannot foresee which team it will be
4. The best tip of all: not all my tips will be correct!
Bearing in mind the above constraints, what are Roar readers tipping?
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The Crowd Says (8) | Page 1 of Comments
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May 7th 2009 @ 11:24am
eric said | May 7th 2009 @ 11:24am | Report comment
Not sure why you say the Sharks consolidated their position. Like you, I think the top three look safe, but there are 6 teams that could finish fourth. 9th place is only one win behind fourth place. I think whoever wins two games out of two of the Sharks, NSW, Brumbies, Blues, Force, Crusaders will come fourth. (Mathematically, most of those teams could still get a home semi!)
The Force probably have the two easiest matches and the Sharks the two hardest. The Force also have the current best +/- of the fringe contenders. That will count.
When you consider that the following games are yet to be played, the comp is wide open. 1 v 2, 3 v 4, 4 v 5, 2 v 7, 6 v 7 & 6 v 8.
If the Force beat the Stormers, they’re in I reckon, but will have to go to Pretoria for semi.
What really would throw a spanner in the works is if the refs decide to say “Hands off, it is a ruck”, or “tackler roll away” or “defender in front of last foot” and give penalties. I think they have gone soft on penalties at the breakdown.
May 7th 2009 @ 11:30am
eric said | May 7th 2009 @ 11:30am | Report comment
Woops, make those last two 6 v 8 & 7 v 8, ie Auckland v Brumbies & Crusaders.
May 7th 2009 @ 3:08pm
Spiro Zavos said | May 7th 2009 @ 3:08pm | Report comment
In the past the final composition of the finals side in the Super 14 competition has come down to the last match of the last match. This time the match is between the Bulls playing at home against the Sharks. What are the odds that this match decides which teams are in the finals?
I enjoyed Greg’s analysis, and also his concession that he may be wrong in some of his assumptions. Part of the fun in trying to work out what is going to happen is the realisation that the future rarely emerges as we think it will be, even when, like Greg, we have been assiduous in covering many possiibilities. This will probably be true for the 2009 Super 14 tournament.
One consideration Greg mentioned in passing, in reference to the Sharks, is the effect of injuries. The Bulls will be gravely damaged by the loss for the rest of the tournament of Fourie Du Preez, the best halfback in the world by the length of the street, and arguably the best player. Will the Bulls be as clinical in attack and on defence without him? I don’t think so. Will this have a big impact on their challenge for the Super 14 title? I think so. But how much of an impact? The future will tell us, I guess … .
May 7th 2009 @ 3:45pm
Greg Russell said | May 7th 2009 @ 3:45pm | Report comment
I agree with Spiro 1000% about the quality of Fourie Du Preez. I had no idea about his injury when I made my tips. Thus I am already going to invoke my last tip …
If the Bulls do struggle without FdP, then this opens up the possibility of the Hurricanes and Chiefs finishing 1-2 (or 2-1), and thus of another all-NZ climax. Yawn. And not bad for a country that for many weeks was looking like it was having a bad year in S14!
Incidentally, on the topic of an all-NZ final: in the hundreds (literally) comments on Spiro’s article on the SANZAR alliance, has there been any comment made on how it feels for South Africans that almost every year they are shut out of the S14 finals? I have noticed that Australian and NZ S14 followers have no tendency to think of how the competition feels for South Africans. And what I imagine they must feel is: “I quite like the idea of this competition, but what I don’t like is that almost every year it is won by a NZ team beating either an Australian or a NZ team.”
One can debate why this is the case – too many South African teams, the month away in Australasia is too long, etc. But the fact is that a 3-nations competition needs regular finals participation from all 3 countries in order to be healthy. So the S14 in its current state is not healthy (let’s be honest: it is basically a NZ benefit). I believe this is a major factor in a lot of the South African posturing over recent months – they simply want a competition in which they can hold the trophy aloft more than once every 13 years!
May 7th 2009 @ 7:51pm
sheek said | May 7th 2009 @ 7:51pm | Report comment
Greg,
Looking at the table the top 4 teams should all win (at least) one of two remaining games, thus confirming their top 4 position. The only unknown is who will be first, 2nd, 3rd, 4th.
The only team ranked 5-8 who might win both games is the Crusaders, but they will need at least one bonus point as well, to upset any of the top 4.
Each of the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Bulls & Sharks is capable of winning the tournament, but where the semi-finals are played will have a massive bearing on each team’s chances.
On the other hand, back in 1999, Crusaders went to Brisbane & knocked over the top-placed Reds, while the Highlanders did even better, travelling to Cape Town to beat the Stormers. The Crusaders then travelled down to Dunedin to beat the Highlanders for their first S12/14 win.
I think the Crusaders in 1999 remain the only team to win the S12/14 from 4th spot.
May 11th 2009 @ 1:46pm
Jameswm said | May 11th 2009 @ 1:46pm | Report comment
The Tahs now need a good bonus point win in the last round, but unless the Reds or Blues can find some form at home, which at the moment looks unlikely, they will miss out regardless.
Would they be the first team to win all 3 matches in the Republic yet still not qualify for the finals?
Those home ganes where they battled for bonus point tires – that will come back to haunt them, as will insipid home displays against the Force and Bulls.
May 11th 2009 @ 9:01pm
Greg Russell said | May 11th 2009 @ 9:01pm | Report comment
An article on The Roar today (“Glimmer of hope remains for Waratahs”) says that a win by NSW “would complete the first-ever hat-trick in the republic by an Australasian team in Super rugby.”
Assuming this is true, it additionally follows that NSW would “be the first team to win all 3 matches in the Republic yet still not qualify for the finals”. (This is in answer to Jameswm).
May 12th 2009 @ 8:17pm
katzilla said | May 12th 2009 @ 8:17pm | Report comment
Hmm didn’t the Poosaders go unbeaten one year? 2002? If they only played two does their next game in the next season count as a carry over hat trick? as it does with overs in cricket?