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Collingwood and Richmond have both registered nine wins this season. Yet while the Tigers have been lauded for their efforts, the Pies have been torched by the critics.
As Richmond’s top four prospects were being spruiked last week after its 64-point caning of St Kilda, pundits and fans were reading Collingwood its last rites.
A six-goal loss away from home to finals contenders Port Adelaide was deemed adequate evidence the Pies had capsized thanks to coach Nathan Buckley’s shoddy navigation.
The reality is Richmond have not been that great and the Pies have not been that poor. A little context is needed when considering the seasons of both sides.
The Tigers are yet to encounter either of last year’s grand finalists, Sydney or Hawthorn, and the highest ranked opponent they have slain is eighth-placed Port Adelaide.
Collingwood’s results have been no more commendable but the Pies have managed to entrench themselves in the top eight despite a frightful spate of injuries.
Lynchpins Dale Thomas, Heath Shaw, Darren Jolly, Dayne Beams, Luke Ball and skipper Nick Maxwell have all had their seasons curtailed by injury. Faced with such a health crisis, many teams would collapse.
Collingwood, meanwhile, remain an outside chance of earning a top-four spot. Their next three matches – Adelaide at home, Gold Coast away, and GWS at home – are against struggling sides.
After Round 18, Collingwood could well boast an enviable win-loss record of 12-5. The Pies will desperately require such impetus as they then tackle heavyweights Essendon, Sydney and Hawthorn in consecutive weeks.
Each of those sides dismantled Collingwood in their earlier encounters this season. Buckley would undoubtedly be distressed by his side’s performances in those games.
But also he would be optimistic that, with 2012 best and fairest winner Beams and warrior ruckman Jolly to return to the side in coming weeks, they are in a solid position to make an impact in September.
The raft of injuries has allowed the Pies to foster the gifts of greenhorns Kyle Martin, Josh Thomas, Jamie Elliott, and Marley Williams, advancing the team’s depth.
This greater spread of youth may help explain Collingwood’s recent inability to maintain its performance across all four quarters.
Aside from its sporadic endeavour, the Pies next most pressing concern is their reliance on power forward Travis Cloke. No player in the competition is more often the target of his side’s kicks inside 50.
Pies forward Quinten Lynch’s form has evaporated the past month, heightening the focus and burden on the hulking Cloke.
Contrastingly, the Tigers this year have moderated their dependence on their number one forward. They have created a greater spread of goal kickers by extending their vision beyond spearhead Jack Riewoldt when in offence.
Richmond likely need to triumph in just three of its final eight matches to make the finals. This would appear to be a straightforward task but the Tigers are unpredictable.
They made a barnstorming start to the season, winning their first four games, before slumping to three losses on the trot. Their Round 10 decimation of West Coast at Subiaco Oval kick started a four-game winning streak which came to a shuddering end at the weekend against a mediocre North Melbourne.
Just as it seemed they had matured into a side capable of causing upsets in September, the Tigers of old resurfaced. They were lazy, listless and lacking in leadership as the Kangaroos trounced them by 62 points.
The troubling loss pulled focus on what is perhaps the Tigers’ greatest deficiency – their lousy defensive work ethic. Richmond rank dead last for tackles this season, averaging just 55 per game, more than 20 a match behind reigning premiers Sydney.
Considering the exaggerated pressure and accountability in finals football, it is difficult to imagine the Tigers playing deep into September. That is, if they qualify for finals at all.
Richmond must travel to the Gold Coast this weekend, followed by pivotal clashes with top-four teams Fremantle, Sydney and Hawthorn the next three rounds.
For all the talk of them being finals ‘certainties’, the Tigers could conceivably be 9-9 with four games to play.
In all likelihood, both Richmond and Collingwood will suit up in September. But there is little doubt which team is better equipped to succeed.
Sorry Tigers.