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The AFL season starts in two days time, and the excitement is palpable across the nation. Yesterday I had a look at the sides I’m tipping to miss out on finals action, and today we get to those I think will be there at the pointy end of the season.
West Coast is an enigma wrapped in a riddle, only this one is surrounded by the mystery of a new coach appointment in Adam Simpson.
Group-think can sometimes take over the football landscape, and it was likely the case before 2013 when the Eagles were widely tipped to be either winning the premiership or at least playing off for it.
They did have a poor run with injury last year, and will be gaining from full seasons out of players that could be elite or close to it like Luke Shuey, Mark LeCras, Sharrod Wellingham, Shannon Hurn and Nic Naitanui.
Most galling for fans though, was how often they were torn apart at home, exposed by opponents’ leg speed and quick ball movement on the bigger ground.
The return of experienced heads will help control the ball when West Coast are in possession, but will they still be blitzed when they aren’t?
Richmond and North Melbourne represent the new wave of clubs looking to pose a top-four threat, while Collingwood and Geelong are the old guard.
The latter two have missed one finals series between them over the last eight years, while the Tigers and Roos have one finals win between them in that time.
Collingwood has the best group of three midfielders in the competition in Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan and Dayne Beams, as well as the most powerful forward in Travis Cloke.
Add in a handful of other All-Australians, some excellent role-players, astute recruiting and a batch of exciting youth, and it’s a recipe that should see the Pies remain around the mark.
The Magpie backline currently looks a little workmanlike and one-paced with the departure of Heath Shaw, turmoil surrounding Marley Williams and the forward-line defection of Ben Reid, so this will be an area opposition teams will look to expose.
Last year’s eighth might just be them bottoming out, but they may require another year at that level. 2015 and beyond is looking strong, but they should still be a major player in 2014.
Geelong just keeps on keeping on. People have long since stopped predicting they’ll slide, and instead marvel at a system that sees a production line of young talent seamlessly step into the breach when the next premiership hero is gracefully shown the exit.
The Cats’ depth will be tested like never before though, with the end-of-season exodus of several key players combined with injuries to a couple of their most important runners in Steven Motlop and Allen Christensen.
Much will be asked of veterans and the inexperienced alike, and doubtless, much will be delivered.
Scoring might be an issue for them. Motlop will start late and surely be required more in the midfield, so last year’s 44 should be beyond him. James Podsiadly takes his 33 to Adelaide, and Christensen was sixth in their goal-kicking with 23, and will be missing half the season.
Joel Selwood kicked 30, double his previous best season haul. Can he be relied upon to do so again?
Geelong don’t have the most difficult start to the season, so might be able to ease their way into the year.
The Tigers were one of last year’s bolters, catapulting from 12th on the ladder to fifth at the end of the regular season. This was achieved off the back of a fast, high-possession game that first disoriented the opposition, then cut a swathe through them.
Richmond’s main problem was applying their own brakes, rather than capitalising on their momentum. They would then cede control to the opposition, who often made them pay, most noticeably in the elimination-final humiliation at the hands of Carlton, turning a 32-point third-quarter lead into a 20-point loss.
The Tigers’ biggest asset is a deepening list of improving talent. You’d be lucky to find two or three players who definitively have their best football behind them. It’s a good position to be in for a side knocking on the door of a top-four position.
With a relatively easy draw on top of all of this, anything less than a sixth-placed finish must be seen as a fail at Tigerland.
I touched on North Melbourne’s virtues a few weeks ago on this site, but in a nutshell, they include a talented core reaching the perfect blend of age and experience, older guns still at their peak, a friendly draw, and a proven ability to match it with the competition’s best.
If Brad Scott can instil resilience enough for the Roos to overcome their propensity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, a top-four finish beckons.
And then there were three.
This is the prediction time of year, and no matter where you look at the moment, everyone seems to have settled on the same top three, the teams that have played in the last two grand finals, Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney.
It’s an obvious conclusion to reach.
Hawthorn only lost three games last season, two to Geelong by a combined 17 points, plus their usual thumping at the hands of Richmond.
They were a cut above a large section of the competition and appear to have come back hungrier than ever, based on their demolitions throughout the NAB Challenge.
While they have lost Buddy Franklin, their forward line still has several prongs, all of which are serviced in abundant quantity and precise quality from a premiership midfield.
Fremantle are a popular flag tip, fitting the prevalent ‘have to lose one to win one’ mould of Hawthorn in 2013, Geelong in 2009 and West Coast in 2006.
Maniacal with their all-ground defence, and laden with hardened, experienced and big-bodied midfielders, they’ll win almost every game at home, and pick up their share on the road to ensure a top-four finish.
The similarities between Fremantle and St Kilda under Ross Lyon are eerie, although the Dockers are more advanced.
Half a season in the first year to bed down the coach’s game-plan, followed by a mid-table finish. The second year leaping into the top four, with Freo going a step further to a grand final.
The third season was when St Kilda went up several levels under Lyon, producing as dominant season as the likes of Essendon in 2000 and Geelong in 2007 or 2008.
There’s no reason to think Fremantle won’t do the same. Every player knows their role to the nth degree, and no slack will be given to any who fall short. If your every action isn’t committed one hundred per cent to the team, you won’t be in it.
Sydney has produced a premiership and top-four finish over the last two seasons, and now adds a full season from Kurt Tippett and the acquisition of Franklin.
They have six to eight genuine gun midfielders this season, all of whom hit the scoreboard heavily, a luxury no other team enjoys.
Mike Pyke, shouldering most of the responsibility, will confirm himself as part of the next tier of ruckmen below Aaron Sandilands as genuine match-shapers.
Their defence is both settled and versatile, with up to ten names that would look comfortable in the back six at any given point in time.
This year’s big three are awfully difficult to split, and it’s hard to imagine us not talking about any of them still being premiership threats in the last two weeks of the year.
My ladder
Sydney
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Richmond
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Geelong
West Coast
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Adelaide
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast
Brisbane
Melbourne
Greater Western Sydney
St Kilda
Grand final
Fremantle to defeat Sydney
Brownlow Medal
Scott Pendlebury
Coleman Medal
Jarryd Roughead
Rising star
Brodie Grundy