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When Australia last played the West Indies in a T20 match, at the Gabba in February last year, they employed an all-pace attack. Could they go down the same route for Friday’s do-or-die game in the World T20?
Granted, the bouncy deck in Brisbane is far different to the slower, drier surfaces in Bangladesh for this tournament, but Australia have bowled few overs of spin in recent matches against the West Indies.
During their past five games against the West Indies, stretching back two years, the Aussie quicks have taken 30 wickets at an average of 22 compared to three wickets at 68 for the tweakers.
The last time Australia did rely more heavily on the slow bowlers was when they succumbed to the West Indies in the semi-final of the last T20 World Cup. Xavier Doherty, Brad Hogg and David Hussey combined for 1-91 from their eight overs that night as the Caribbean batsmen ran amok.
Given this recent history, it seems highly unlikely Australia will play both Hogg and 20-year-old leg spinner James Muirhead on Friday. News reports have suggested that with gun all-rounder James Faulkner to return from injury, either Hogg or veteran batsman Brad Hodge is likely to make way.
That could be interpreted as a sign Australia are considering an all-pace attack.
It is also possible that Faulkner could take the place of quick Nathan Coulter-Nile, who was the loosest of the Aussie fast bowlers in their first-up loss to Pakistan on Sunday.
The Windies also faltered in their first game of the tournament due to an uncharacteristically stodgy batting display against India. Swing bowler Bhuvneshwar Kumar remarkably conceded just three runs from his three overs as he cramped the Windies’ batsmen.
The Indian spinners also enjoyed success, combining for 6-90 from their 14 overs. Australia, though, do not have the same level of spin talent to call upon as India.
Hogg is vastly experienced but struggled for control against Pakistan. He was also expensive, giving up 29 runs from his three overs.
Muirhead, meanwhile, is as green as they come. He looked at ease during his three T20 outings against England in January, but those matches were inconsequential and comparatively free of pressure.
Encountering the likes of Chris Gayle and Marlon Samuels in what is essentially a knockout World Cup contest is a far more daunting challenge.
Considering this, I would back Hogg to rebound from his underwhelming performance against Pakistan. With all-rounder Glenn Maxwell also in the XI the Aussies would have sufficient spin options, while Shane Watson’s presence would provide them with four pacemen to choose from.
Maxwell was strangely overlooked during Pakistan’s innings in favour of Aaron Finch. The burly opening batsman’s modest left-arm spin was promptly dispatched for 18 off his solitary over.
Australia will rely upon their left-arm quicks Mitchell Starc and Doug Bollinger to slice into the West Indies batting order early on. Starc’s late out-swing should trouble Gayle, while Bollinger looked composed in his return to international cricket against Pakistan.
The Aussie attack have been slain by the West Indies’ aggressive batsmen numerous times before at T20 level. They will have to lift a cog on Friday if they are to avoid such a depressing fate.