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Parramatta remind me of the Wests Tigers team that won the premiership in 2005. The thing is, so do the Tigers!
Call me irresponsible, but in more cases than not the so-called shock results we’ve seen in the first five rounds of the NRL are going to prove to be the norm over the course of the season. We’ve got one of those revolutions on our hands where the fortunes of a lot of teams change dramatically in 12 months.
It might mean nothing, it might mean something, but I went back and looked at how the competition table stood after five rounds last season. There is still a game to go in this round, between North Queensland and Newcastle in Townsville tonight, but the result can have only a minimal effect on the ladder. The Cowboys are running 14th and the Knights 15th.
This time last season, Melbourne led the competition on 10 points, followed by South Sydney (10), Manly (eight), Newcastle (6), Sydney Roosters (6), Gold Coast (6), Brisbane (4) and Cronulla (4).
Of those sides, only Brisbane and the Gold Coast didn’t play finals footy – the Titans narrowly missed out, finishing ninth, while the Broncos ended up 12th. Four of the first five finished in the top four.
After five rounds this year, the Titans lead on 8, followed by Canterbury (6), Brisbane (6), Penrith (6), the Tigers (6), St George Illawarra (6), Manly (6) and Parramatta (6).
The way the table looks now means a lot. It’s not a case of early-season upsets and that when everything settles down over the next few rounds we will see normal transmission resuming.
There will be some movement in keeping with what was widely expected before the season began. I certainly don’t expect Melbourne, currently in ninth place on 6 points, the Roosters (10th, 4) or Souths (11th, 4) to miss the finals. But overall it’s going to be a heap of fun seeing how all of this works out.
Before the season began, I thought the Panthers would make the finals and even challenge for the top four. Nothing has changed my mind there. Penrith made some astute buys in the last couple of years and are now seeing the benefits. But I didn’t see it coming with the Eels and Tigers.
I knew the Eels would improve, but they were coming off a low base. They finished two wins behind the second-last team last season. That second-last team was the Tigers.
I thought they might struggle for depth this year, particularly since Curtis Sironen, Dene Halatau and Tim Moltzen all went down with long-term injuries before the season began. But young James Tedesco is looking fantastic at fullback, and Luke Brooks is coming through as good judges tipped him to at halfback. Aaron Woods is a genuine forward leader now, and he has only recently turned 23.
The enthusiasm of the young players is rubbing off on the older players, like Liam Fulton and Keith Galloway. And did you see Robbie Farah in yesterday’s 34-18 win over Manly? He slaughtered them.
The Tigers ran 13th of 15 teams in 2003, only two years before they won that 2005 title. They were ninth in 2004. History shows you can improve dramatically in a short time in the NRL if you can manage to buy or develop a few of the right players.
In the key positions in 2005, the Tigers had Brett Hodgson at fullback, Benji Marshall five-eighth, Scott Prince halfback and Farah hooker. It was a mixture of youth and experience that proved irresistible in the end.
But, remember, the Tigers were at odds of 100-1 to win the premiership at one stage during that season. Right now, you won’t find odds remotely like that about any team – I know, I checked. Last-placed Cronulla are the outsiders at general odds of 50-1. Bookmakers know they have to keep just about every team relatively safe until they can get an accurate gauge.
Parramatta easily beat the Warriors in Round 1, were flogged 56-4 by the Roosters in Round 2 and were desperately unlucky to lose in the final minute to the Sea Eagles in Round 3. The way they bounced back after the game against the Roosters indicated they were at least made of sterner stuff than in the last two years, when they collected two wooden spoons. There was hope for the future.
But then came the wildcard – the reintroduction of much-maligned halfback Chris Sandow. Sure, we had all heard of his great form for Wentworthville in the NSW Cup, but back in first grade? Was that really going to work?
Sandow was terrific in Friday’s night 25-18 win over Brisbane. The approach of new Eels coach Brad Arthur must really agree with him. Sandow and fullback Jarryd Hayne cut Brisbane up.
Two games is not remotely a full test of whether Sandow is going to hack it, but he looks much different to the Sandow we saw previously at the Eels. He looks fitter, smarter, more disciplined and better in defence.
Look at the Parramatta quartet in the key positions: Hayne, Corey Norman at five-eighth, Sandow, and Nathan Peats at hooker. Then look at the rest of the team, especially players like Tim Mannah, Semi Radradra, Manu Ma’u, William Hopoate and Willie Tonga. Hopoate, still in the early days of a comeback after two years out of the game, is going to keep getting better. Tonga appears revitalised.
Look a bit like the Tigers team of 2005? It does to me.
I’m not saying the Eels or the Tigers are going to win the premiership, but I’m not ruling anything like that out, either.
I like the look of the Titans, as well. Sure, they’ve won a bit ugly at times, but they went to Melbourne yesterday and knocked over the Storm.
The Roosters are still the competition favourites at this stage, and the bookmakers think the same, but this competition has at least got the potential for something unusual to happen.
Something most of us would have thought was crazy before it kicked off.
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