The Brownlow medal race has been blown wide open after favourite Gart Ablett’s injury on the weekend.
The Gold Coast skipper is expected to miss at least three games, and could even be out for the remainder of the season should it be decided he needs surgery on his hurt shoulder.
Leading into Round 16, Ablett was priced as short as $1.60 to win the Brownlow and become one of only five players in VFL and AFL history to claim it three times.
The competition’s best player had been running amok for the Suns and his side’s success had made it even more likely that he would poll well.
Of course, he is not yet to be discounted as a Brownlow chance. Should Ablett sit out only three games it is still very possible he could take home ‘Charlie’.
He missed the same number of games in 2009 when he secured his first Brownlow while playing for Geelong. Indeed, he remains the narrow favourite with some bookies just ahead of Scott Pendlebury.
But Ablett’s injury has certainly added intrigue to the Brownlow race. Will 2014 be the year when Collingwood maestro Pendlebury finally wins the medal? Or will a smoky leap from the pack to snare a surprise win on AFL’s big night?
With the season now slightly more than two-thirds completed, we have a good idea of who the main challengers are likely to be.
The clear second favourite prior to Ablett’s injury was Pendlebury. The Magpies’ captain has been best-on-ground in at least four of their victories by my reckoning.
Pendlebury also has a proven record of being recognised by the umpires, having polled an average of 20 votes each season over the past four AFL campaigns.
His teammate Dane Swan is not without a chance at adding a second Brownlow to his collection this season, given his consistent ball-winning ability.
Young Magpie Dayne Beams is rated as high as sixth-favourite for the Brownlow at this stage by some betting agencies.
However, the three players considered most likely, at this point, to challenge Ablett and Pendlebury for the medal are Port skipper Travis Boak, Sydney workhorse Josh Kennedy and Geelong leader Joel Selwood.
Boak is flying this season and has consistently been among Port’s best three players in their 11 wins. Kennedy is enjoying his best ever season and likely would be leading Sydney’s best and fairest at this point.
Selwood, meanwhile, has so often been the catalyst in decisive bursts by the Cats, who have been made to work hard for many of their wins this season.
If I was a betting man, I would be tempted by the long odds being offered for Lance Franklin to grab the Brownlow in his first season at Sydney.
At $26 the languid left-footer is an enticing prospect. While he has had several quiet games, he has also won a number off his own boot in impossible-to-ignore fashion.
There are plenty of roughies who could yet feature prominently on voting night. Essendon’s indefatigable midfielder Dyson Heppell has had an outstanding season, earning stacks of his own footy and defending ferociously.
His team’s middling performance to this point will hurt him as far as votes go, but should the Dons have a spike in form over the next two months that would see his stocks rise.
Boak may be the main man at Port but don’t be surprised to see their emerging guns Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard poll very well.
Both Wingard and Gray are the kind of beguiling footballers who can get votes even when they don’t dominate a match.
Fremantle’s Stephen Hill is paying $151 to grab the Brownlow but, like Wingard and Gray, his performances are so often memorable. He is a decent outside pick.
But right now it’s hard to go past Pendlebury. It seems like this may well be his season.
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