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Jake White and his rough Sharks side go south to the Cape to take on Gert Smal’s resurgent Stormers this weekend. It will be cold at Newlands, and maybe a bit damp, and the Sharks have a lot of work to do.
Yes, the banana boys are in the playoffs and won’t be overtaken within the South Africa Conference but depending on the result of the Crusaders versus Highlanders tilt, they may need a bonus-point win to book a bye and a home semi-final at Kings Park.
The Stormers are finally finding consistent form, and will want to finish ahead of their arch rivals, the Bulls, in second place in the conference.
In the last four games, the Cape side has averaged 23.5 points and conceded less than seven a game. Yes, they have also been slightly more adventurous, but realistically their defence has been the big difference in their changing fortunes. Which is a problem for Jake.
Jakeball, as Spiro likes to call it, has produced only two try bonus points in 2014.
The Capetonians will not give Jake an easy ride. The Sharks were the last South African team to beat the Stormers on their famous home park, in the semi-final of 2012. In fact, since 2009, the Stormers have lost only three Newlands derbies.
Meanwhile, Jake knows he has to have home advantage in the playoffs.
He is starting Frans Steyn at flyhalf, which I believe slows the Sharks’ exit game, even though he has a siege gun boot. Look for heavy pressure by Schalk Burger, Duane Vermeulen and Nizaam Carr on those clearance kicks, which seem to take an eternity to load for the big back.
When the kicks do find awkward spaces, the back three of the Stormers must look to counter. Jaco Taute needs a solid game under the high ball, as he is flanked by diminutive Gio Aplon and Cheslin Kolbe. But if Steyn is errant or sloppy, as he can be at flyhalf, Aplon and Kolbe can find gaps.
However, on the ground, Steyn can get over the gain line with Kurt Coleman not an imposing tackler, and the Sharks’ midfield of Paul Jordaan and JP Pietersen will look to expose the defensive frailties of Coleman and Juan de Jongh.
But the real clash will come from the big ball carriers coming around the corner, with Willem Alberts, Bismarck du Plessis, and Marcel Coetzee banging into Burger, Vermeulen and Michael Rhodes. Heyneke Meyer will watch, nervously.
The battle of the front row is intriguing. With live wire hooker Deon Fourie out, the Stormer’s scrum should improve. Tiaan Liebenberg will give Bismarck more of a battle. Also, Pat Cilliers will look to unsettle Jannie du Plessis.
The Sharks should have an advantage in the second row battle, with promising Stephan Lewies and unsung Anton Bresler having a clear advantage.
But it’s the bench where the Sharks might find the points they need. Low-running Kyle Cooper, underrated props Wiehahn Herbst and Lourens Adriaanse, along with the formidable flanker Jean Deysel and speedster Tonderai Chavhanga can make an impact at the end.
Still, I fancy the upward-trending Stormers at home against the fading Sharks. Lock your doors, put the children to bed, and watch a real grudge match unfold.
My prediction: Stormers 17 Sharks 13.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.