If you look back at the on-field history of the VFL and AFL, there has usually been at least one team each season that has virtually been noncompetitive.
In recent years, with the inclusion of the expansion teams the Gold Coast Suns and the Greater Western Sydney Giants, and the horrible form of Melbourne, there has been at least three.
However, 2014 has been a different kettle of fish, with the bottom five at the moment, St Kilda, Melbourne, the Giants, Brisbane and the Bulldogs, who were favoured by many so called experts at the start of the year to be a good chance to fill these positions, all producing some good performances at times.
The battle for the wodden spoon and the number one draft pick is well and truly on, with the Saints red hot favourites a fortnight ago after 11 losses in a row keeping the race wide open with that extraordinary upset thrashing of Fremantle.
The performance and the win over Essendon back in Round 5 have been the highlights for St Kilda, who have a huge mix of first, second and third-year inexperienced players and top end stars in the twilights of great careers. But they’re still playing great footy, especially Nick Reiwoldt.
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The Giants have certainly improved from last season and having seen them live for the first time in their previous outing against Geelong, the future is bright. Many of those early round draft picks have played some decent footy now like Devon Smith, Toby Greene, Dylan Shiel, Jon Patton, Lachie Whitfield, Will Hoskin-Elliott and last year’s number one draft pick, Tom Boyd.
Melbourne has been competitive in most games this season and although their style of footy hasn’t been too attractive, they have generally stopped the thrashings of recent years and been hard to score and play against.
If they lose James Frawley to free agency, which is on the cards, and stay second last, they will get pick two and then pick three as well for compensation. That should net them a quality tall and probably the best midfielder in the draft in Christian Petracca.
Coach Paul Roos always said it wasn’t about winning this year. He was adamant they had to improve their percentage and competiveness and that has been achieved. There’s plenty of light at the end of the tunnel.
Brisbane early in the season looked like they were going to have a horrible season and struggle to win games, but there have been plenty of positive signs in recent weeks.
It was seen as all doom and gloom at the start of the year, losing all of those high draft picks from 2010 and 2011 back to their home states. It looked like another rebuild, but all the players that they selected in the draft as replacement picks have shown they are ready made senior players.
James Aish and Lewis Taylor in particular have shone and would both be good chances of winning a very open Rising Star this year.
They have also played most of the season without two of their best players in Daniel Rich and Matthew Leuenberger due to serious injuries, so the Lions and new coach Justin Leppitsch can take plenty out of the season so far.
The Bulldogs can as well. They have pushed most teams in the games they have lost and with better and taller key forwards could have won more than the six so far. They have suffered four defeats under 10 points including two to likely finalists Essendon.
The big plus for the Dogs is their early draft picks of the past couple of years are all starting to play well on a consistent basis.
A great sign was the win over the Gold Coast when Jake Stringer, Jack McCrae, another Rising star prospect, Marcus Bontempelli, Mitch Wallis, Nathan Hrovat and Jason Johannissen were among their best players.
McCrae, in just his second season, is already a very good AFL player and could become elite very soon.
If they stay 14th, they should be in contention for a key position player as their first pick at the draft such as Peter Wright, Sam Durdin or even Hugh Goddard. They certainly need one of those youngsters.
They should also be aiming to snare a key forward from another club. The Giants have three very good ones don’t they? It all depends if the Dogs want to give up that first pick.
The aim for these clubs now, despite being young, is to ensure they don’t fall away during the last month of the season and then of course build on the improvement in 2015.
Although these teams could still finish in the bottom five, they have definetely had better years than Richmond, Carlton and West Coast Eagles, who would all be competing for the biggest disappointment tag.
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"You want your key forward to be a beast."
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