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2014 AFL season: Round 22 preview

Roar Guru
19th August, 2014
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1186 Reads

With only two rounds remaining before the finals kick off in September, the season is going down to the wire.

Each match in the penultimate round of the season will play a key role in determining the final order of the ladder.

Among the matches include the battle of the bruised between the GWS Giants and Collingwood, a possible qualifying final preview between Hawthorn and the Geelong Cats, and the last chance for either Richmond to stay alive in the finals race, or St Kilda to avoid the wooden spoon.

Let’s now preview each of the nine matches in detail.

Port Adelaide versus Carlton
For Port Adelaide, it’s now or never.

Their unconvincing nine-point win over the Gold Coast Suns on the holiday strip do little to suggest that they will be a serious contender in September, but it did keep their hopes alive.

But to snatch a top four berth from Fremantle, whom they play in the final round, they must first defeat the Blues, hope that the Dockers lose to the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba on Sunday and then defeat them in Perth next week.

It’s possible, but on the current form of the teams involved in this equation it’s unlikely. While the Power are coming off a scrappy win on the Gold Coast, the Blues threatened an upset against the Geelong Cats before losing by six points.

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While the Blues cannot make the finals, they can all but end Port’s top four chances with a victory on Friday night, however it’s expected they will have over 50,000 Port Adelaide supporters against them as Ken Hinkley’s men fight to keep their double-chance hopes alive.

Prediction: Port Adelaide by 24 points.

North Melbourne versus Adelaide Crows
With North Melbourne assured to play finals football for only the second time in the Brad Scott era, now is the time to start flexing their muscle against an Adelaide Crows side who will be desperate to cling onto their place in the eight.

The Roos dominated their match against the Western Bulldogs, winning by 50 points to book their ticket to September. With that now secure, they will now seek a fifth or sixth place finish which will mean a home elimination final.

Currently sixth on the ladder, the Roos are in the box seat to remain there when the final ladder is set in stone at the end of 23 rounds, but Adelaide will be out to ensure that does not happen when they travel to Hobart for the first time.

Despite taking the lead midway through the final quarter of its match against Richmond, the Crows were kept right on the back foot the minute Brett Deledio kicked the first goal of the game inside the first 15 seconds last week.

The Crows cannot afford another slow start like that if they are to defeat the Roos on Saturday and protect its place in the eight. In fact, a loss for them, combined with huge wins for the Tigers, Collingwood and Gold Coast could see Brenton Sanderson’s men out of the eight by the end of the round.

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Two desperate clubs – one to secure a home final, and the other to try to keep their place in the eight, will equal what should be a tight contest.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 20 points.

Essendon versus Gold Coast Suns
The return of Jobe Watson from what seemed to be a season-ending injury against GWS in Round 12 has come at the perfect time for Essendon, who can all but secure their berth in September with victory against the Gold Coast Suns.

The Bombers looked dead for all money when they trailed the West Coast Eagles by 34 point some ten minutes into the third quarter, before a stunning fightback saw them keep the Eagles goalless in the final quarter and win by three points.

This Saturday’s match against the Suns should provide a percentage booster which will be crucial to their faint chances of hosting a home elimination final in the first round of September.

The Suns are slowly drifting away from finals contention and a loss for them, which would be their fifth out of six since Gary Ablett Jr’s season ending shoulder injury last month, will officially put paid to those hopes.

Therefore, the favouritism will fall on Essendon as they seek their first finals berth since 2011, ahead of James Hird’s return to the club in 2015.

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Prediction: Essendon by 40 points.

GWS Giants versus Collingwood
It’s the battle of the battered and bruised (and beaten, in the case of Collingwood) – but it will be the GWS Giants who enter their final home game of season 2014 on the back of a very impressive victory over Melbourne.

Leon Cameron’s men may have lost Jonathon Patton for another twelve months, as well as their co-captains Callan Ward and Phil Davis with a knee and calf injury, and concussion, respectively, but it did not stop them from running roughshod over an inept Dees side at the MCG last Sunday.

The manner in which they achieved their first ever win in Victoria must be commended, considering they were restricted to a one-man bench for the entire second half.

And now, having come off their fifth win of the season, they would love nothing more than to win their final home game for the season in front of their fans against a Collingwood side also ravaged by injury, and who are coming off consecutive 60+ point losses.

For the Pies, Ben Reid, Travis Cloke and Dayne Beams all won’t play again this year, while Scott Pendlebury, a late withdrawal before their savaging by the Brisbane Lions, is a chance to return.

The Giants enter this match in better form and wouldn’t they love to win their final game of the season by also ending Collingwood’s finals hopes and sentencing them to their first September absence since 2005.

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Given the injuries to either side, it’s a match that is very difficult to predict with real confidence and thus could go either way. Can the Giants build on from their win over Melbourne last week or will the Pies bounce back?

Prediction: Collingwood by 20 points.

Hawthorn versus Geelong Cats
The top two hopes of both Hawthorn and the Geelong Cats will go on the line when these two bitter rivals clash under the Saturday night lights at the MCG in the biggest match of the round.

Much as been said about the recent one-sided rivalry between the two sides, with the Cats having won 12 of their past 13 matches against the Hawks dating back to the 2008 grand final.

The only win the Hawks enjoyed was in last year’s preliminary final, after which they would go on to win their eleventh flag, thus vindicating Jeff Kennett’s 2009 comments that “they’ve beaten the Cats when it matters”.

If you’re a Geelong supporter, then there’s every reason why you should look forward to this match with the greatest optimism. Not only has your side beaten the Hawks in 12 out of the last 13, they are also in the box seat to secure a home qualifying final, possibly against the Hawks, in the first round of the finals.

Recent history will be against the Hawks, but at least they will have Jarryd Roughead back from suspension after his absence proved to be the difference in their 19-point loss to Fremantle in the west last week.

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It won’t make a difference who hosts a possible qualifying final between the two sides in the first week of the finals, but what will matter is who the loser of that match could face in week two.

The stakes are high.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 10 points.

West Coast Eagles versus Melbourne
Melbourne has copped it in the press after their embarrassing 64-point loss to an injury-ravaged GWS at home last week – and it could get worse when they face a West Coast Eagles side desperate to keep its finals chances alive this Saturday night at Patersons Stadium.

So horrific was their loss last Sunday that the club has asked the AFL to consider its case for a priority draft pick, which has come on the basis of almost a decade of underachieving since its most recent finals appearance in 2006.

Coach Paul Roos was so angry after the match that he didn’t address his players at the end, and only came public about it for the first time since the post-match press conference on Monday night’s edition of AFL 360 on Fox Footy.

He feels that he has failed as a coach, but fans should remember that he is here not to win the club a premiership, but rather, to set it up for future on-field success after the late Dean Bailey and Mark Neeld failed to deliver on their promises.

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To the eyes of the West Coast Eagles, their final home game of season 2014 will be seen as a potential percentage-booster, and with Adelaide, Collingwood and the Gold Coast all playing earlier that day, they could leapfrog those three teams into the eight by the end of Saturday night, given neither of them win their respective matches.

Oh, and they would also need last-placed St Kilda to upset Richmond on Sunday, a result which will also certainly sentence the Demons to their first wooden spoon since 2009.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 60 points.

Brisbane Lions versus Fremantle
After a horrific first half of the season ravaged by injuries, suddenly the Brisbane Lions are starting to find their spark under Justin Leppitsch, and we got to see the best of them in their 67-point mauling of Collingwood at the MCG.

Since the Round 10 bye, the club has won six of their eleven games to move away from wooden spoon contention, but just how far they have come will be put to the test when they welcome Fremantle to the Gabba for the first time since 2011 on Sunday.

The Dockers put behind a poor patch of two losses on either side of a narrow five-point win over Carlton with a strong 19-point win over Hawthorn, and will be aware of a side coming off easily their best victory for the season.

However, the Dockers have won their last six matches against the Lions, including the last four at Patersons Stadium, and their previous two at the Gabba (2010 and 2011). Additionally, the Lions could only muster 3.4 (22) when the two sides met in Round 14.

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With the finals in sight, there’s no excuses for Ross Lyon’s men to slip up, otherwise they could end up having to defend their double-chance against Port Adelaide at home next week.

Prediction: Fremantle by 45 points.

Western Bulldogs versus Sydney Swans
With the Sydney Swans in the box seat to claim its first minor premiership since 1996, it seems only complacency or a sudden dip in form can stop them now.

The Swans will be dented by the loss of Josh Kennedy to a hamstring injury which has turned out to be less serious than first thought. Still, it didn’t stop the Swans, and Lance Franklin, from having a field day against St Kilda at the SCG last week.

It is also not expected to affect their favouritism for this Sunday’s match against the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium, where John Longmire’s men are undefeated since Round 9, 2012 (a 28-point loss to St Kilda).

The Bulldogs have had another disappointing season on the field this year but in the face of adversity, their young pups are shining bright like diamonds. The club has had three Rising Star nominations in 2014, one of which, Marcus Bontempelli, is favoured to take out top honours when the winner is revealed next month.

But the experience and form of the seemingly unstoppable Swans will expose just how far the Bulldogs need to go if they are to start climbing the ladder on a rapid basis in 2015.

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Prediction: Sydney Swans by 40 points.

Richmond versus St Kilda
For Richmond, it’s their last chance to remain in the finals race, while for St Kilda, it’s their last chance to avoid the wooden spoon, especially with this being Lenny Hayes’ final appearance in Melbourne as an AFL player.

The Tigers got off to a fast start against the Crows in Adelaide last week and despite falling behind in the final quarter, eventually won by ten points as they continued their second-half season surge after being 3-10 after Round 14.

With this match being the last to be played in Round 22, the Tigers will know exactly how much they must win by if they are to stay alive in finals contention. As it stands, they will start the round in the all-too-familiar position of ninth.

And it’s a position they could even finish at the end of 23 rounds, if they drop this one to St Kilda, who apart from the second quarter were otherwise disappointing in a 71-point loss to the Sydney Swans last week.

The occasion of this being Lenny Hayes’ final MCG appearance will be which motivates St Kilda towards victory on Sunday afternoon, but the Tigers’ good form and recent good record against the Saints will be what counts.

Prediction: Richmond by 22 points.

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