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Before the All Blacks play a Test, and before the haka, they ask god to hear their voices, and ask the Almighty defend their “free land” from “the shafts of strife and war.”
Maybe god has in fact defended New Zealand. Very few rugby teams have been able to defend against the All Black attack.
During this decade, New Zealand has not lost in New Zealand. They have lost to England at Twickenham, and Australia in Brisbane and Hong Kong, and to South Africa at Port Elizabeth, and drawn a couple of Tests away from their home.
But here is one constant – when New Zealand has scored 25 or more points in a Test match this decade, they have not lost. New Zealand is a perfect 43 out of 43 in Tests in his decade when their opponent cannot hold them under 25 points.
If you let the All Blacks score 25 points, you will lose, because New Zealand’s tryline defence is underrated, and you have doomed yourself to a tricky triad of tasks.
You must cross their tryline several times, have twelve or thirteen forwards as fit as the All Black pack, and all your forwards must be ball-handlers. Or, I suppose get lucky, or pray to a different deity.
If you hold them under 25, you have a chance. You usually still lose. But the odds improve.
Those teams who beat New Zealand, defend New Zealand.
In the seventeen Tests in this decade, in which the All Blacks scored 20-24 points, they lost three. For their opponents, a 17 per cent win rate sounds poor, but it is infinitely better than zero!
Now, examine Tests in which New Zealand was held to less than 20 points, and we see that they won 11 out of 14 – meaning their opponents’ win rate was above 20 per cent.
If we mention many of these Tests, we immediately remember them. The 8-7 brawl at Eden Park over France. The 12-12 sister-kisser in Sydney this year. The 24-22 nailbiter in Dublin.
A dour pre-World Cup asterisk win by Morne Steyn in Port Elizabeth, in which New Zealand’s B team only scored five points. The recent escape in Wellington, with only one try by the men in black in their own divinely defended capital.
The twentieth point scored by Conrad Smith to defeat England.
Twenty points weren’t enough to beat Australia at Brisbane in 2011. In their two draws of this decade, the All Blacks failed to score twenty points.
And in all eleven Tests in this decade in which a late unconverted try would have beaten New Zealand, but the All Blacks survived with a win or draw, we can see that New Zealand was defended – below 25 points in all but one (the oddly “not close” 28-27 win over England in Dunedin).
In most of these tight struggles – seven of eleven – the Kiwi juggernaut was held to 20 or fewer points.
The way to win against New Zealand is to keep their attack contained.
How do you do that?
It’s not a matter of doing what Australia just tried to do in Cape Town – make 90 per cent of almost 300 tackles and hang on for dear life for the last ten minutes. That doesn’t work against New Zealand, and didn’t against the ‘Boks.
You defend the All Blacks by starving them. You simply cannot feed them with aimless kicks, or uncontested up-and-under punts.
You rob them of turnovers with ruck retention and ball security; the vital three seconds after a tackle.
And here’s a tricky part. You starve them of offloads, or smother the aftermath of flat passes.
Then, you compete at the breakdown, gain ascendancy at set piece and use the clock well.
You must be prepared for the raking kick, the grubber, the chip, and the diagonal probe, but also clatter into every collision determined to take every bit of happiness from every All Black.
You will see Ben Smith dance but you must end that dance.
Don’t panic when you get into their 22 and expect clever coordinated mayhem; make sure the referee has to make the call.
Take your points on offer, using all the time the ref gives you.
And finish. Finish them. Finish your chances. Finish stronger than them. Finish every move. Finish your tackles. Finish.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.