With the NBA season starting on Wednesday I decided that rather than post a huge comment on Ryan O’Connell’s excellent awards preview that I would write my own.
Some of his decisions I can wholeheartedly agree on, while there are obviously a few where I hold a different viewpoint.
Either way, here are my predictions for the 2014-15 NBA season.
Most Valuable Player
Much like Ryan I find it hard to look past King James for MVP this year. The Cavaliers project to be crazy-good on offence this year and while they may not quite have the depth in the front court to win the championship we can expect them to steamroll the regular season.
The reality is that much like Michael Jordan in his prime it will take an extraordinary season for anyone else to win MVP. Most of the other candidates are either on a weak team (Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony), are starting the season injured or underdone (Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose) or are on a team with two stars who may well vulture attention from each other (Blake Griffin and Chris Paul).
Rookie of the Year
Jabari Parker is the consensus favourite and it’s hard to look elsewhere really. Parker is on the team he wanted to be on and figures to start and be a central figure for the Bucks right away.
The sleeper may be Philly forward Nerlens Noel who was the first pick in last year’s draft but remains eligible for Rookie of the Year because he sat out the entirety of 2013-14.
For Australian fans a sobering preseason has seen enthusiasm for Dante Exum turned down a few notches but hopefully he will get to showcase his quickness off the bench against second units.
Most Improved
By its very nature an incredibly difficult award to predict. What we are generally looking for is a player in an improved situation, whether it is the addition of superior or complementary teammates or the subtraction of teammate in a similar role leading to extended minutes.
Iman Schumpert at the Knicks is a possibility if he can secure the starting role ahead of JR Smith and Tim Hardaway Jr, as is Ryan’s selection of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist who should benefit considerably from the arrival of Lance ‘born ready’ Stephenson.
However, my selection is George Hill at the Pacers who will need to take on an expanded role with the departure of Stephenson and the injury to Paul George. Already in preseason Hill has shouldered more of the scoring load and he will need to continue to do so if the Pacers are to keep their heads above water this year.
Sixth Man of the Year
A uniquely basketball award, the Sixth Man award recognises players who come off the pine (or more accurately off the comically short-legged chairs that serve as an NBA bench) to change the game for their team. As Ryan accurately points out this award almost always goes to an impact scorer such as Jamal Crawford or JR Smith.
Indeed the award has gone to a scoring off-guard every year bar one in the last 10 years (the lone forward recipient was Lamar Odom in a season when he didn’t necessarily start games but almost always finished them on the floor).
However, this year could well see that trend bucked. While Ryan’s nominee Taj Gibson is a terrific player I’m going in a different direction and picking Andre Iguodala of the Golden State Warriors. Iguodala will spend time at both the two and three spots and will be asked to provide instant defence against opposition point guards and smaller wing players. Iguodala was profoundly unhappy in Denver but looks comfortable in his new role and that buy-in should see him well in the race for this award.
Defensive Player of the Year
The obvious pick is Amar’e Stoudemire. Oh I’m sorry that’s for least defensive player of the year (bitter Knicks fan here). There seems to be three obvious candidates: Australia’s own Andrew ‘if he can stay healthy’ Bogut, Joakim Noah and Roy Hibbert.
Beyond those three Dwight Howard ended last year looking more like the shot blocking beast of the 2009-10 Orlando Dwight, and if he can continue that he will be in the conversation. Tyson Chandler had an injury riddled year in New York but should thrive again in Rick Carlisle’s system and Anthony Davis remains a sleeper if only because his eight-foot long arms allow him to block shots from pretty much anywhere in the building.
I’ll take the homer pick and go with Bogut and the good news is that if he does win it there’s a good chance we’ll be cheering for another Aussie in the NBA finals, because if Bogut brings that sort of defence then the Warriors will be rolling.
Coach of the Year
While there is very little doubt that Gregg Popovich currently holds the NBA coaching Championship Belt, along with the actual Championship, there has never been a back-to-back winner of this award. The two most obvious candidates then are both first time NBA coaches who have parachuted into unbelievable opportunities. David Blatt in Cleveland and Steve Kerr in Golden State will both begin their NBA coaching careers with genuine title contenders.
At the other end of the spectrum coaches like Erik Spoelstra and Frank Vogel face gravely depleted rosters but have a chance to use that adversity to showcase their ability. And even further down the charts if Stan Van Gundy can get almost literally anything useful out of his troop of mismatched personalities he may well enter the frame.
But I’ll ignore all of that and take a former winner in Rick Carlisle of the Dallas Mavericks. With the return of Tyson Chandler and the addition of Chandler Parsons the Mavs have reloaded and Carlisle will be keen to take advantage of the last few years of Dirk Nowitski’s career.
Executive of the Year
Save the easiest for last. I was listening to an interview with Keanu Reeves recently and the interviewer told a story of seeing Reeves at a party in the mid-1990s sitting in a corner when a girl walked over, sat in his lap and started making out with him.
This is essentially what just happened with David Griffen and the return of the king. Unless some sort of unforseen disaster strikes Griffen, the general manager of the Cleveland Cavaliers will win Executive of the Year. To be fair to Griffen, he did also negotiate the trade for Kevin Love so his award won’t be entirely down to serendipity.
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