Last week in AFL SuperCoach marked the round in which the prices changed, for those players who had played three games.
It was a relatively simple round in terms of buyer’s tactics. Who do you trade in? The big guns that you missed if you have the funds, or the must have rookies like Kamdyn McIntosh, Adam Saad, Jesse Hogan, Isaac Heeney and Cam Ellis-Yolmen? That is, if you hadn’t selected them already.
But now with prices changed, picking a player becomes more difficult.
No doubt many will have traded in the likes of Luke Hodge (177), Jarryd Roughead (173) and Lachie Neale (170) after huge performances in Round 3. It happens every year. It also happened in after Round 1 when Tex Walker scored 177. It’s inevitable, and these three now boast averages that exceed 118, which we all like to see in our team. Big scores. Big averages.
But you are not going to be a successful Supercoacher if you trade in last week’s best for each of the 23 rounds of the 2015 season. You’re chasing last week’s points.
What we want is consistency, which after three rounds is a small sample size. I know I would rather trade in a player who has gone 120, 125 and 115 than someone who has gone 75, 100 and 175. Let’s not jump the gun and stay rational, it is very unlikely that Hodge, Roughead and Neale will often hit that 150+ mark more than a few more times this season.
We can get similar scoring players for the remainder of the season – and for a much lower price in some cases.
Nevertheless, here are my top five best buys for Round 4.
#1: Rory Sloane (MID, $640,500)
Sloane has the highest average out of any player at this stage, with scores of 145, 134 and 140. All of his scores thus far have been captaincy worthy and he is pulling Ablett-like numbers.
If you held Ablett last week and still have him, Sloane should be the go-to player. He averages 11.67 more points per game than the next closest player who has played all three games this season.
That man is…
#2: Marcus Bontempelli (FWD/MID, $422,300)
The Bont missed last week after being a late exclusion but is back in the side this week. The Bulldogs young gun has the footy world buzzing, and has begun the season very well with scores of 126 and 142. The best thing about his scores is that he gets a lot of points from tackles, of which he has amassed 10 in each of his two games so far.
That’s 40 points a game just from tackling so far. All of this points towards him being a good pick up, but he is a second-year player. Therefore, be wary. It is very rare for a second-year player to remain consistent, Bont may be the exception.
Either way, his price hasn’t gone up yet and with Bartel out, he could be a very good trade in target.
#3: Adam Oxley (DEF, $199,100)
If you don’t have Oxley, get him in now. At a touch under 200k, he has already undergone his first price rise, but if you’ve held Brett Goodes or have another under-performing pick then a move to Oxley would be the way to go.
After producing Tom Langdon-like scores with 116 and 97 over the past two weeks, Oxley’s breakeven is down to -97 with his first score of 31 out of his rolling three match system, ensuring that Oxley will undergo yet another large price rise this week.
#4: Tom McDonald (DEF, $432,300)
This is more of a left-field selection, but he is a player highly worth considering. He has started off the season proper with sores of 125, 122 and 95. To put it beyond any chance of luck, McDonald’s three NAB Challenge games consisted of scores of 99, 108 and 96.
He has shown some serious consistency in the half a dozen games so far in 2015, with rebound 50s and marks the highlight of his game, leading him to an average of 1.06 points per minute. His worst game so far was a 95 against Adelaide last weekend, where he totalled for 16 disposals, four marks and four rebound 50s, he even gave away two free kicks and had three clangers.
Despite it being his worst game of the year and having very little flashy stats, he managed to pull 95, which I believe really highlights his scoring potential. Comes with the risk of being a tall defender which are usually not highly sought after in SuperCoach, but he may prove to be an Alex Rance type.
#5: Nathan Krakouer (FWD/MID, $106,900)
The Krak is back. His return to AFL football netted him 82 points and looks a likely type. Hinkley has said that Krakouer will play an important role for them this season. If you have rookie trouble then Krakouer has to be looked at.
Jed Anderson isn’t playing this week and his breakeven of 23 is already catching up to him, while Tom Lamb and Jaden McGrath both have injuries, these sorts of players can be traded off for him and he’s a pretty safe bet.
The watchlist
Aaron Young was a common substitute for the Power last year but has come in to score 98 last week. With Ollie Wines injured, and as a hard nut who likes to tackle, Young could find himself with increased opportunity.
At $244,600 in the forward line and midfield, could be an option next week if he avoids the sub vest and plays well again to get a quick few price rises in. Watch this week.
Robbie Tarrant returned to AFL football with 107 points last week and at $144,000 is fantastic value in the forward line. If he can score above 60-70 again next week he will have a nice breakeven which could see him get some handy price rises.
Luke Parker managed 35 disposals and 98 SC points in a smidge over three quarters of game time in Round 1 after being concussed. Since he has scored 78 and 77, he has already dropped $40,000 and with a break-even of 166 should continue to drop a fair bit more this week. In a couple of weeks time, could represent some great value at or under the 500k mark, and he should regain the form of 2014 which saw him average 120.2 points per game in the final 10 rounds.
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