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Statistically, if a team isn’t in the eight by the end of this round, history says that their chance of making it past week one of the finals is less than 10 per cent.
A few months ago I pointed out that the chances were very good that a number of teams from last year’s final eight would be replaced in the 2015 finals. The only question was who would make way and who would replace them.
Newcastle’s early season flirtation with the top of the ladder after winning their first four games was quickly washed away by five straight losses. This should be a cautionary example to other overachievers who have subsequently moved into the eight.
And there are no bigger overachievers than the Dragons and Raiders. Both sides have drawn plenty of positive comment for their recent performances that see them firmly in the eight.
The question is will these two sides burn out quickly like the Knights or have they actually turned the corner to become contenders?
In 2014 the Dragons won 11 games for the season. However, just two of those wins were against sides that finished in the top eight. Already this year they have won three games against top eight sides.
Why? Well for starters in attack they are averaging 120 extra metres a game.
However, the huge improvement is in their defence. The Dragons are only conceding 2.5 line breaks a game on average – down from 4.5 in 2014. They are conceding only two tries a game, down from 3.8 in 2014 – for just 11 points conceded on average a game.
They are clearly the best in the NRL for both of these stats. Their missed tackles were the second lowest in 2014 but in 2015 they are missing 2.5 fewer still. Paul McGregor has the defence in tip top shape. In comparison to 2014 they are a better side to the tune of 6.5 points a game.
While in the last five seasons all of the premiers have boasted the best defensive record for the year (actually second best for the Storm in 2012), all but one of those titles has been won by a side with at least a top three-ranked attack.
The odd man out? The Dragons in 2010 only had the eighth-ranked attack.
As in previous seasons, the Dragons have serious issues in attack. They are actually making one fewer line break per game than last year to be second worst for that stat, and 1.5 fewer tries a game. They have scored the fewest number of tries per game in the NRL this year.
This drop isn’t surprising when you consider that they let their second highest try scorer in Brett Morris depart in the off-season. As well, they let wunderkind Jack Bird depart to the Sharks.
In Josh Dugan they do have a weapon that may just be starting to realise his true potential. Of the regular fullbacks his average of 149 metres a game is second only to Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Dugan is the leading tackle-breaking custodian, averaging five a game. However, that has only translated into two tries this year and, for all his efforts, he didn’t get across the line against the Rabbitohs.
However, it isn’t just the individual strike power the Dragons are missing, it is also effective playmakers. Last season Benji Marshall and Gareth Widdop combined fell short of Johnathan Thurston’s try assists. This season they are tracking for the same result. While both are undoubtedly talented playmakers, they must double their efforts in attack if the Dragons are genuinely going to be a force in 2015.
However, while scoring more tries is the issue the Dragons must address as a team if they are to succeed in 2015, for mine the biggest priority at this moment must be the retention of Trent Merrin.
How his signature was not the numbers one, two and three priorities for the powers that be at St George Illawarra is totally beyond me. In the last three seasons only Jason Nightingale has played more games for the club than Merrin.
This season he’s averaging 156 metres a game and 34 tackles. On top of that his defence is superb, missing less than a tackle a game despite his heavy involvement. He has led the likes of Mike Cooper, Jack De Belin, Mitch Rein, Joel Thompson and Tyson Frizell into the fray this year and helped mould them into the relentless tackling machine they are.
June 30 approaches quickly. If Peter Doust doesn’t retain Merrin, it may be the end of his tenure at the joint venture.
While attack is what the Dragons must address, the Raiders have to fix their defence if they are actually going to be seriously competitive in 2015.
The Raiders won only eight games in 2014. This season they have already won five.
Like the Dragons, the Raiders’ defence has improved considerably. Last season they had the worst defence, conceding 113 tries at almost five per match. This season they are conceding just 3.5 a match. But the real difference is in attack.
In 2015 the Green Machine are making an extra 1.5 line breaks a match and scoring an extra try. They are a ten points per game better than last year.
While a lot of fingers have pointed at Blake Austin as being behind this improvement, the truth is more complex. While Blake’s eight line breaks and five tries certainly haven’t gone astray, it is the changing of the guard that is really having the greatest effect.
With the exception of Luke Priddis’ brief stay at the Raiders, there hasn’t been a very good hooker at the club since the legendary Steve Walters.
However, in Josh Hodgson the Raiders have picked up a great dummy half who defends excellently, misses very few tackles, can kick a 40/20 and, most importantly, can pass brilliantly in both directions. His understudy is Broncos refugee Kurt Baptiste who has shown that he can be devastating running from dummy half.
Further, Sia Soliola has added an element of menace that has opponents taking their eyes off the ball lest they be the next one pounded into the turf. Frank-Paul Nu’uausala didn’t want to leave the Roosters but he now seems determined to make them regret letting him go.
The return of Sam Williams at halfback has provided direction and control the side has been lacking for a long while.
All of these purchases have been inspired inclusions and have rejuvenated the team. The plethora of Ricky Stuart haters are beginning to get very nervous that he might just be about to do the unthinkable and make a basket case into a powerhouse.
If he does they might just have to consider the idea that he is actually a good coach and that perhaps a) Fittler and his crew white-anted Ricky at the Roosters; b) That Ricky did about as well as anybody could at the Sharks; and c) that Parramatta is such a dysfunctional club that no one can fix them.
However, this is all very premature. The reality is that the Raiders have only beaten one top eight side this year. To their credit they are very aware of it. When I interviewed Ricky Stuart after the victory over the Titans he was very quick to hose down any thought of the job being anywhere near accomplished.
In truth both the Raiders and the Dragons, while certainly big improvers, are a long way off being genuine contenders. While this coming weekend’s clash between the two sides may well be a cracker, it is extremely unlikely to be a grand final preview.