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Your AFL team's run home (Part II)

Roar Guru
20th July, 2015
11

Having assessed the current top eight in Part I, let’s look at the run home for the rest of the AFL’s teams for season 2015.

Here is the bottom ten and my prediction of where they will finish at season’s end.

Collingwood
Currently ninth (8 wins, 7 losses, 32 competition points, 117.8%)
Matches to play: Western Bulldogs (ES), Melbourne (MCG), Carlton (MCG), Sydney Swans (SCG), Richmond (MCG), Geelong Cats (MCG), Essendon (MCG)

Having lost their last four matches to drop out of the top eight, the last thing Collingwood would want is a serious injury to its key forward, Travis Cloke.

The Pies had been tracking well in winning eight of their first eleven matches, however, their past month had seen them endure a frustrating four-game losing streak, the worst of which was by just 31 points against the West Coast Eagles last weekend.

They had pushed Fremantle, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide close but were unable to reap the rewards for their competitiveness against any of those three sides. And it could get worse with Cloke set to miss at least two-to-three weeks with a calf injury.

On the flipside, they do have some winnable assignments against Melbourne and Carlton to follow their Round 17 match against the sixth-placed Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium this Sunday.

They will also travel to the SCG for the first time since 2000 to take on the Sydney Swans in Friday night prime-time, after which is followed by a hat-trick of matches against traditional rivals Richmond, the Geelong Cats and Essendon to round out the regular season.

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Unfortunately, the injury to Travis Cloke and their four-game losing streak could conspire against them and a second straight year without finals could loom as a possibility. However, don’t expect the Pies to go down without so much of a fight.

Predicted finish: 11th

North Melbourne
Currently 10th (8 wins, 7 losses, 97.8%)
Matches to play: Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Carlton (ES), Melbourne (MCG), St Kilda (BA), Fremantle (ES), Western Bulldogs (ES), Richmond (ES)

To say the least, North Melbourne have disappointed this season and appear set to miss the finals just twelve months after appearing in a preliminary final and being touted as the biggest Victorian challenger behind Hawthorn for the premiership.

While their run home appears easy on paper, with only the match against Fremantle looming as their biggest danger, it’s hard to predict which North Melbourne side will turn up for any of their seven remainders.

In Round 14 the club submitted its worst performance for the season when it went down to the Gold Coast Suns by 55 points. However, the club has rebounded, defeating the Geelong Cats and Essendon to revive their fading finals hopes.

Excluding their sold home game against St Kilda in Hobart, their trip to the Gabba this Saturday night will be the last time they travel interstate in 2015. After that, the club will stay in Melbourne for five of their six remainders.

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Thus, the Kangaroos’ finals hopes still remain alive but they cannot afford to take their minds off what lies ahead in the final seven rounds. Unfortunately, I have them missing the finals and remaining in their current ladder placing of 10th.

Prediction: 10th

Geelong Cats
Currently 11th (7 wins, 7 losses, 1 draw*, 30 competition points, 96%)
Matches to play: GWS Giants (STO), Brisbane Lions (SS), Sydney Swans (SS), Hawthorn (MCG), St Kilda (ES), Collingwood (MCG), Adelaide Crows (SS)
* – the Round 14 match against the Adelaide Crows was cancelled in the wake of Phil Walsh’s death

It has been a testing season for the Geelong Cats in 2015 as the face the unenviable end of an era which saw the club won three premierships from four grand final appearances between 2007 and 2011.

Last Saturday’s win over the Western Bulldogs was just their second win at Simonds Stadium this season, and their seventh in 2015, reviving any hopes the club has of reaching the finals for a ninth consecutive year.

Their final seven weeks will see them enjoy three games at home, albeit against interstate opposition in the Brisbane Lions, Sydney Swans and Adelaide Crows. They will also enjoy MCG blockbusters against Hawthorn and Collingwood, two matches the club must win if they are to keep their finals hopes alive.

Currently 11th on the ladder, I can see the Cats winning a few matches in the final seven rounds, but a first finals absence since 2006 appears likely given the decline the club appears to have gone through this year.

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Prediction: ninth

Port Adelaide
Currently 12th (6 wins, 9 losses, 24 competition points, 97.5%)
Matches to play: Essendon (ES), St Kilda (Oval), Western Bulldogs (ES), GWS Giants (Oval), Hawthorn (ES), Gold Coast Suns (MS), Fremantle (Oval)

Like North Melbourne this season, it has been well documented that Port Adelaide have struggled to live up to expectations.

Their heartbreaking three-point loss to the Adelaide Crows on Sunday has all but ended their finals hopes, and it’s now time for the club to focus on salvaging what has been a disappointing season for Ken Hinkley’s men.

The club’s run home will see them enjoy winnable matches against St Kilda, the GWS Giants and Gold Coast Suns, while question marks hover over their other four matches against Essendon, the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Fremantle.

While it’s not too late for the Power to salvage their season and make an unlikely late run for the finals, the task ahead of them might be just too much.

Prediction: 12th

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St Kilda
Currently 13th (5 wins, 10 losses, 20 competition points, 87.8%)
Matches to play: Melbourne (MCG), Port Adelaide (Oval), Fremantle (ES), North Melbourne (BA), Geelong Cats (ES), Sydney Swans (ES), West Coast Eagles (DS)

While St Kilda’s win-loss record appears set to finish in the red for the third consecutive year, there’s no denying that the Saints have improved this season as they continue their long-term rebuild under Alan Richardson.

The Saints have been unable to back up their 110-point thrashing of Essendon in their last two matches, going down to the GWS Giants and Richmond by margins of 35 and 16 points respectively.

If the Saints want to prove that they are continuing to make progress in their rebuild, then they must aim to win at least one or two of their remaining seven matches.

One match that appears winnable is their clash against fellow five-win side Melbourne at the MCG next Sunday, while they will also look to sabotage the finals hopes of Fremantle at home, as they did in Round 18 last year, two rounds later.

It will be interesting to see where the Saints finish this year, as they look to continue to climb back up the ladder in future seasons.

Prediction: 14th

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Essendon
Currently 14th (5 wins, 10 losses, 20 competition points, 79%)
Matches to play: Port Adelaide (ES), Western Bulldogs (ES), GWS Giants (SPO), Adelaide Crows (ES), Gold Coast Suns (MS), Richmond (MCG), Collingwood (MCG)

This is it. Essendon’s finals hopes, and perhaps the future of coach James Hird, will go on the line in the final seven rounds of the season.

Season 2015 has been one of unrelenting disappointment for the Bombers, with just five wins so far this season. It is a departure from years past, the club having won at least eleven matches in their past four seasons dating back to 2011.

With a finals berth seemingly all but out of reach, the club will look to salvage their season and they won’t get a better chance to do that with three of their next four matches at Etihad Stadium, and their final two matches at the MCG.

They also have to face two interstate trips for matches against the two expansion sides, and it’s fair to say that the Bombers will start as underdogs against GWS at Spotless Stadium in Round 19.

However, from the Bombers’ point of view, they can view that match, as well as those against the Western Bulldogs and Richmond in Rounds 18 and 22 respectively, as opportunities to sabotage those clubs’ finals chances.

While James Hird’s men appear unlikely to make the finals, they can at least shape the ladder and have their say as to who will finish where at season’s end.

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Prediction: 13th

Melbourne
Currently 15th (5 wins, 10 losses, 20 competition points, 79%)
Matches to play: St Kilda (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), North Melbourne (MCG), Western Bulldogs (ES), Carlton (MCG), Fremantle (DS), GWS Giants (ES)

The slow but gradual resurrection of the Melbourne Football Club under Paul Roos continued last Sunday when the club defeated the Brisbane Lions at home on the back of a strong first half.

It marked their fifth win for season 2015, marking the first time since 2011 that the Dees had won more than four matches in a single season.

Now that they have cracked the five-win barrier, the club must aim for more wins over the remaining seven rounds if they want to prove that they are more than just rebuilding after nearly a decade in the doldrums.

They will get a chance to do that with all but one of their seven remainders in Melbourne, though two of those will be at Etihad Stadium where the club have lost their last 21 matches, including just recently against St Kilda in Round 11.

The Dees will get the chance to avenge that heartbreaking loss from five weeks ago when they face the Saints in the free-to-air match this Sunday. They can also view the matches against the Western Bulldogs and Carlton as those the club can win as they look to finish out of the bottom four for the first time since 2011.

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A strong finish to this season, as well as the expectations of an improved 2016 season, will see Paul Roos leave the club in a much better state than when he found it at the end of 2013, and provide Simon Goodwin a template which he can use to further improve the club when he takes over from Roos in 2017.

Prediction: 15th

Carlton
Currently 16th (3 wins, 12 losses, 12 competition points, 78.3%)
Matches to play: Hawthorn (ES), North Melbourne (ES), Collingwood (MCG), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Melbourne (MCG), GWS Giants (SPO), Hawthorn (MCG)

Since the sacking of Mick Malthouse earlier this season, Carlton have shown some considerable improvement under caretaker coach John Barker and it could be enough for him to secure the senior coaching role on a full-time basis in 2016.

However, the club fell slightly backwards when it failed to score in the final quarter of its 42-point loss to Fremantle in the west last week. Still, they fought with the Dockers for three quarters before falling away badly.

Their final seven rounds is bookended by matches against Hawthorn and will see them make two interstate trips for matches against the Brisbane Lions and GWS Giants on either side of their final home match against Melbourne in Round 21.

They will also face matches against North Melbourne and Collingwood in Rounds 18 and 19, with their recent good record against the Roos meaning that they can view that match as being winnable.

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However, it will be hard seeing the club add to their three wins in the final seven rounds and it seems avoiding the wooden spoon while at the same time gaining an early draft pick will be their priority.

Prediction: 17th

Gold Coast Suns
Currently 17th (2 wins, 13 losses, 8 competition points, 73.4%)
Matches to play: Adelaide Crows (Oval), West Coast Eagles (MS), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Richmond (MCG), Essendon (MS), Port Adelaide (MS), Sydney Swans (MS)

At the start of the season, a lot was to be expected of the Gold Coast Suns with the club having picked up an experienced coach and a premiership defender during the off-season.

However, season 2015 has not unfolded the way the Gold Coast Suns would have liked, and now the club finds itself in a battle to avoid their second wooden spoon after a season marred by injuries and players falling foul of the club’s laws.

In fact, the local derby against the Brisbane Lions in Round 19 could shape as the wooden spoon decider, while the Suns must also face road trips to Adelaide and Sydney in Rounds 17 and 23 respectively, as well as a home date with the finals-bound West Coast Eagles in Round 18.

Sadly, I cannot see the Suns adding to their two wins this season and while finishing last appears the sobering reality, the bright side of it is that they will get the first pick in November’s draft.

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Prediction: 18th

Brisbane Lions
Currently 18th (2 wins, 18 losses, 4 competition points, 65.7%)
Matches to play: North Melbourne (Gabba), Geelong Cats (SS), Gold Coast Suns (Gabba), Carlton (Gabba), Adelaide Crows (Oval), Hawthorn (AS), Western Bulldogs (Gabba)

Like the Gold Coast Suns, a lot was expected from the Brisbane Lions this season, having been one of the more active players during the off-season last year, picking up two premiership players from Collingwood and the Geelong Cats.

However, it has been the same old story for Justin Leppitsch’s men in 2015, with a raft of injuries and an eight-game losing streak seeing the club pinned to the bottom of the ladder after sixteen rounds.

The club had lifted their form for matches against top-eight sides Adelaide, Fremantle and the Sydney Swans, but last week they fell back to old habits and were never in the hunt against Melbourne at the MCG.

As already explained in the Gold Coast Suns’ run home above, the Round 19 QClash at the Gabba could shape as the wooden spoon decider, however the Lions will have the home ground advantage which will give them the chance to avenge the embarrassing 64-point loss they suffered in Round 5.

That, and the game against Carlton the following week, shape as the only two matches that appear winnable in the Lions’ point of view. They must also gear up for tough road trips to Geelong, Adelaide and Launceston, the latter for a showdown against the premiership-bound Hawks, in the run home.

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It will be interesting to see if the Lions can move off the bottom of the ladder in the final seven rounds, but with some winnable games in that period, there will be no excuses.

Prediction: 16th

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