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2015 AFL season: Round 18 preview

Roar Guru
29th July, 2015
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1790 Reads

Following a controversial conclusion to Round 17 whereby Adam Goodes became the target of relentless booing in Perth, attention returns to the field with six rounds to play before the finals get underway.

Hawthorn and Richmond will kick off the round with a huge Friday night blockbuster at the MCG, while the Swans will look to move on from the latest controversy involving Goodes when they face the Adelaide Crows on Saturday night.

Meanwhile, both Fremantle and the West Coast Eagles will be heavily favoured to continue their dual domination at the top of the ladder with easy assignments against the two youngest clubs in the AFL.

Here’s your full guide to Round 18.

Hawthorn vs Richmond
What is undoubtedly the match of the round will see the red hot Hawthorn take on Richmond in front of what is expected to be another huge crowd at the MCG on Friday night.

After a slow start to the season which included losing to the GWS Giants by 10 points in Round 6, Alastair Clarkson’s men have regained their premiership-winning form. They were at their brutal best as they handed Carlton a 138-point thrashing at Etihad Stadium last Friday night.

The Hawks’ hot form spells danger for Richmond, which blew its best chance to leap into the top four when it lost a heartbreaker to Fremantle by just four points at the MCG last Saturday.

The Tigers had led for the majority of their match against the Dockers until Bachar Houli’s kick-in with less than two minutes left was turned over, resulting in David Mundy kicking the match winner for the Purple Haze.

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Houli has offered to take the first kick-in of the match, as self-punishment for his game-losing clanger last week.

Just as interesting, though, will be what the final margin is, with the Tigers expected to do what Fremantle, the Sydney Swans and Carlton couldn’t, and that is to challenge the might of the Hawks all the way.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 30 points.

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions
If you thought the Geelong Cats were a spent force, think again.

The Cats last week kept their hopes of a ninth straight finals series alive with a 27-point win over the GWS Giants side in Canberra, but have still yet to crack the eight this season after what has been a poor hear by their standards.

Their September chances should remain alive for at least another week, but these hopes will then go on the line in the final five weeks with tough matches against the Sydney Swans, Hawthorn and Collingwood, among others, still to come.

Meanwhile, the Brisbane Lions continue to be pinned to the bottom of the ladder with just two wins for the year. It has been a very disappointing season for the club which were expected to climb the ladder in 2015.

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Their hopes of avoiding their first wooden spoon since 1998 will have to wait another week, if their 72-point loss to North Melbourne and poor record in Geelong, where they haven’t won since 2003, is anything to go by.

Midfielder Allen Christensen will come up against his old club for the first time since being traded to Brisbane at the end of last season, and has, along with fellow Brisbane recruit Dayne Beams, been a shining light in a dark year for the Lions.

While his return to Simonds Stadium should add some spice to the match, the Cats’ home ground advantage and class will tell the difference in the end.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 40 points.

Collingwood vs Melbourne
The first non-Queen’s Birthday clash between Collingwood and Melbourne since 2010 will present the Pies their best chance to end its worst losing streak since 2005 when they face Melbourne at the MCG.

The Pies have gone winless since resuming their season after the mid-season bye, losing five matches in a row for the first time in a decade to fall to 11th after having been inside the top four prior to their Round 12 bye.

However, their dominant record against Melbourne, which dates back to 2007 with the only blot being a draw in 2010, should hold them in good stead as they bid to get their finals hopes back on track.

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The Dees were anything but plain disappointing in its 37-point loss to St Kilda at the MCG last Sunday, and it came a week after they defeated the Brisbane Lions by 24 points at the same venue.

It will be interesting to see if they can bounce back from another poor performance, one of many that have dogged their 2015 season, with a strong performance against a team of the Pies’ calibre.

In the end, however, the Pies should end their frustrating losing streak and get their September ambitions back on the rails.

Prediction: Collingwood by 25 points.

Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows
After a disappointing fortnight in which they lost to Hawthorn and the West Coast Eagles by a combined 141 points, the Sydney Swans will be out to get their premiership aspirations back on track when they face off against the Adelaide Crows in the twilight match at the SCG.

Without four of their best in Lance Franklin, Kurt Tippett, Craig Bird and Ted Richards, the Swans proved no match for the West Coast Eagles in Perth, going down by 52 points.

While at least three of that quartet should return against the Crows, Adam Goodes will not play after the dual Brownlow Medallist was given extended time away from the club as the fallout from the latest booing episode continues.

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With a torturous fortnight now behind them, the Swans can now look forward to the run home which begins with the match against the Crows, who have put the Phil Walsh tragedy behind them to win their last two matches.

The Crows will need to overturn a recent poor record against the Sydney Swans, to whom have lost their last three meetings by an average of 56.3 points, if they are to remain on track to return to September for the first time since 2012.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 10 points.

Carlton vs North Melbourne
Having jumped into the eight for the first time this season last week, North Melbourne will look to continue its late charge into the finals when they face off against Carlton in the ‘Jarrad Waite Cup’ at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night.

While the Roos celebrated club legend Brent Harvey’s 400th game with a 72-point thrashing of the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, the Blues suffered a club-record 138-point loss to Hawthorn at home last week, denting caretaker coach John Barker’s chances of winning the top job after this season.

The Blues had improved their form somewhat following Mick Malthouse’s sacking after Round 8, but all that went out the window in a dark night for the club.

The match against the Roos will offer no respite, even though the Blues have won three of their last four meetings between the two clubs dating back to 2011.

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Adding some spice to the match is that Jarrad Waite will bring up his 200th AFL game against his old club, and will be keen to vindicate his move to Arden Street with a strong performance against the 16th-placed Blues.

With the finals in sight, there will be no excuses for the Roos to slip up against the Blues as they look to consolidate their place in the eight.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 50 points.

Gold Coast Suns vs West Coast Eagles
What has already been a horror season for the Gold Coast Suns could get worse when they welcome the second-placed West Coast Eagles to Metricon Stadium for just the second time in their history.

A season-ending knee injury to captain Gary Ablett Jr. not only soured their 45-point loss to the Adelaide Crows in Adelaide last week, but also increased their chances of claiming the wooden spoon at the end of the season.

Only the Brisbane Lions, whom the Suns face next week in what shapes as the wooden spoon decider, sit below them on the ladder. However, before they face off against their bigger brothers at the Gabba, the Suns must face a red hot West Coast Eagles side which has dropped just three games so far this season.

The Eagles ended an eight-year itch against the Sydney Swans last week, winning by 52 points at home. Their 13th win for the season has them on track to finish in the top two for the first time since claiming the premiership in 2006.

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Although Josh Kennedy kicked just three goals in their win over the Swans, he still remains on track to become just the second Eagle after Scott Cummings to claim the Coleman Medal, with the next best Jeremy Cameron 12 goals in arrears.

This Saturday night Adam Simpson’s men will be strongly favoured to continue its dominant record against the Suns, and could deliver an even uglier result than the 92-point thrashing they handed to Rodney Eade’s men back in Round 7.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 80 points.

Port Adelaide vs St Kilda
The first match on Sunday will see Port Adelaide continue its late charge for the finals when they welcome the improving St Kilda to the Adelaide Oval.

Ken Hinkley’s men kept their faint September hopes alive when they defeated Essendon on the road last Saturday night, while the Saints logged their sixth win of the season when they defeated Melbourne by 37 points.

The Power have struggled through a season in which many expected them to take the next step up and contend for the premiership, having reached the preliminary final from outside the top four last year.

Though they currently sit in 12th position on the ladder, a finals berth is not far beyond them just yet.

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Every game for the rest of the season is thus critical to them if they are to continue charging up the ladder. Sunday’s game against St Kilda, against whom they have won their last three meetings, is just one of them.

After finishing as wooden spooners last season, the Saints showed that they are tracking in the right direction of their rebuild thanks to their 37-point win over the Dees, which came after impressive performances from Nick Riewoldt and Paddy McCartin as well as the recent resigning of Alan Richardson as coach until 2018.

Just one win separates the Power and Saints on the ladder, further highlighting the importance of this match to both clubs. In the end, the Power’s home ground advantage should get them home in this one.

Prediction: Port Adelaide by 30 points.

Essendon vs Western Bulldogs
The Western Bulldogs’ rags-to-riches rise is nearly complete, with the club’s imminent return to the finals continuing to gather momentum following their 24-point win over Collingwood last week.

It was their fifth win in six matches since their Round 11 bye and 10th for the season, seeing them equal on points with Richmond but sixth on the ladder on percentage.

About two or three more wins will guarantee them their first September berth since 2010, something that no-one thought would happen this year given their well documented off-season from hell in which they lost their captain, coach, CEO, former Brownlow Medallist and hundreds of games in experience.

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This Sunday the Bulldogs will start favourites to defeat an Essendon side which, while currently enduring a disappointing season on and off the field, threw everything they could at Port Adelaide last week but still lost by 13 points.

While the pressure continues to increase on James Hird with the former club captain currently enduring his worst season as coach since taking over in 2011, it was still an encouraging performance but the absence of captain Jobe Watson and a few others to injury were to be the ultimate difference between victory and defeat.

In the Bombers’ favour is that they have won their last six matches against the Western Bulldogs, all of them coming under the watch of Hird. However, that stat alone will not be enough for the Bombers to continue that streak on Sunday.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 24 points.

Fremantle vs GWS Giants
The final match of the round will see the GWS Giants head west for the second time this season to face ladder leaders Fremantle.

The Giants’ atrocious record in Perth is well documented, with their last trip across the Nullarbor resulting in a humiliating 87-point loss to the West Coast Eagles in Round 5 in which they dubiously kicked the season’s lowest score to date, 4.9 (33).

A repeat result against the Dockers looms likely following their disappointing 27-point loss to the Geelong Cats in Canberra last week. Co-captain Phil Davis remains a chance to return, having not featured since Round 11 due to injury.

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Meanwhile, the Dockers, who last week narrowly edged out Richmond at the MCG last week, have ruled out Nat Fyfe who will be rested after struggling through a quad injury first suffered in their 72-point loss to Hawthorn in Round 15.

The Dockers have ruthlessly dominated the Giants since the latter team entered the league in 2012, winning their three previous meetings, all of them in Perth, by an average of 94.6 points.

That is not expected to change this week, given the Giants’ terrible record in the west. Try as Leon Cameron’s men can, but the Purple Haze will be ruthless in their bid to secure the minor premiership with potentially the biggest Western Derby yet to loom in Round 20.

Prediction: Fremantle by 75 points.

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