The Roar
The Roar

AFL
Advertisement

2015 AFL season: Round 19 preview

Roar Guru
4th August, 2015
9
2480 Reads

A huge meeting of the birds in the west, a wooden spoon-deciding QClash, and a traditional rivalry will be among Round 19’s highlights, with several matches to decide the make-up of the final ladder.

It all kicks off on Friday night with Richmond looking to continue their hunt for the double chance when they head to the Oval to face the Adelaide Crows.

The premiership credentials of the West Coast Eagles and Hawthorn will be tested in a Saturday night blockbuster at Domain Stadium, the 10t QClash could decide this year’s wooden spoon, while the GWS Giants will look to stay alive in the finals race when they host an out-of-form Essendon on Sunday.

Adelaide Crows versus Richmond
Having become the first team in 10 weeks to defeat Hawthorn last Friday night, Richmond will again feature in the AFL’s premium timeslot when they travel to the City of Churches to take on the Crows.

The Tigers capped off their so-called ‘big boy’ month by beating the Hawks, with the only blemish being a heartbreaking four-point loss to Fremantle in which a miscued kick-in from Bachar Houli proved very costly.

Every match for the rest of the season will be crucial to Damien Hardwick’s men if they are to keep alive their hopes of a top-four finish, with winnable matches against the Gold Coast Suns, Collingwood, Essendon and North Melbourne to follow their final interstate trip for the season.

Adelaide’s finals chances copped a huge blow last week when they lost to the Sydney Swans at the SCG, however caretaker coach Scott Camporeale insists that the players have moved on from the passing of former coach Phil Walsh.

That result sees them in ninth place, behind the eighth-placed Geelong Cats on percentage. Like the Tigers before them, every match from here on in is crucial for the Crows if they are to return to the finals in 2015.

Advertisement

Recent history favours the Tigers, as they have won four of their last five matches against the Crows dating back to 2010. Although a full house will await them at the Oval, expect them to get the job done.

Prediction: Richmond by 14 points.

Collingwood versus Carlton
Saturday’s clash against the old enemy Carlton provides Collingwood a chance to not only notch their first win since mid-June, but also keep alive their finals hopes.

The Pies were disappointing in their 47-point loss to Melbourne last weekend, to the point where club president Eddie McGuire blew up while calling the game on his ‘Press red for Ed’ channel on Fox Footy.

It was their sixth straight loss and saw them tumble to 11th on the ladder, a far cry from when they were flying at 8-3 and were inside the top four prior to their Round 12 bye.

On the other side of the ledger, any chances John Barker had of keeping the top job at Carlton all but ended last Saturday night when the Blues went down to North Melbourne by 64 points.

It came just a week after the Blues copped a 138-point hiding from Hawthorn, continuing the dismantling of all the good work the club had done on the field since Barker took over from Mick Malthouse in late May.

Advertisement

If they are to not only be competitive, but also skip clear of the two Queensland clubs in the race for the wooden spoon, the Blues must buck a poor recent record against the Pies which has seen them lose their last five meetings, the most recent by 75 points in Malthouse’s record-breaking 715th match.

As good as the opportunity is to restore some pride after a horror month on the field, the Pies’ experience and recent history should get them over the line.

Prediction: Collingwood by 45 points.

Western Bulldogs versus Port Adelaide
For Port Adelaide, it’s now or never.

After a poor first half of the season, the club has surged into finals contention on the back of wins over Essendon and St Kilda, but must win every match from here on in if they are to keep their September dreams alive.

The Western Bulldogs are now just a win or two away from returning to the finals for the first time since 2010, a scenario few thought would happen given their well-documented off-season of tumult.

Luke Beveridge’s dream first season at the helm continued last week when the Bulldogs thrashed an inept Essendon by 87 points at Etihad Stadium. The percentage boost that came with the win also saw them overtake Richmond to sit fifth on the ladder.

Advertisement

The Bulldogs will also be smarting after losing to the Power by 38 points back in Round 10; since then, they have only lost once – against the Geelong Cats just over a fortnight ago. It was one of their worst performances for the season but in front of what is expected to be a pro-Bulldogs crowd at Etihad Stadium on Saturday, a repeat performance is unlikely.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 20 points.

Brisbane Lions versus Gold Coast Suns
The two Queensland clubs have been the biggest disappointments of season 2015, despite both adding experience to their playing lists during the last off-season.

The Lions, whose big-name recruit Dayne Beams will not feature again this season after electing to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery, have not won since Round 7, losing their last 10 games in a row to fall to the foot on the ladder.

Their 56-point loss to the Geelong Cats illustrates their season in a nutshell – another heavy defeat in which the team didn’t even appear to try.

The Gold Coast Suns’ draw against the West Coast Eagles last week could have been the two most important premiership points they have won this season, as it took them half a game clear of the Lions in the race for the wooden spoon.

Though they fell short of what would have been their third win for the season, it was one of the fifth-year club’s gutsiest performances.

Advertisement

Whether they can take the form that they showed against the second-placed Eagles at home last week to the Gabba remains to be seen, and it will be a case of ‘hot potato’ as both clubs attempt to avoid a second wooden spoon from landing in their cabinets.

Prediction: Gold Coast Suns by 22 points.

Geelong Cats versus Sydney Swans
Having moved into the eight for the first time this season thanks to a percentage-boosting win over the Lions, the Cats will be out to consolidate their place in the top half of the ladder with the first of two very tough assignments that could decide their finals destiny.

The Cats face a Sydney Swans side who, without Adam Goodes, bounced back from two heavy losses to Hawthorn and the West Coast Eagles to dispose of the Adelaide Crows by 52 points at home last week.

The man himself will be back for the Swans’ first trip to the Cattery in nearly two years, and it will be interesting to see what kind of reception he is greeted to after the Swans champion was relentlessly booed against the Eagles in Perth.

Goodes would have been proud of the effort his side gave against the Crows, and the support he received from the SCG crowd, which at 38,690 was the highest for a Swans match so far this season.

Cats captain Joel Selwood brings up his 200th AFL game this weekend, and the Cats will be keen to not only lift for their inspirational captain, but also keep their finals hopes alive.

Advertisement

However Steve Johnson has copped a week’s suspension for his hit on Brisbane’s Allen Christensen last week (this week’s match would have been his 250th AFL game).

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 15 points.

West Coast Eagles versus Hawthorn
The match of the round sees the West Coast Eagles and Hawthorn test their premiership credentials against each other at Domain Stadium.

Both teams come into this match on the back of some patchy Round 18 performances, with the Eagles being held to a shock draw by the lowly Suns, while the Hawks went down to Richmond by 18 points, ending their eight-game winning streak.

The Eagles come into this match with the home-ground advantage, which has served them well this season recording just the solitary loss against Fremantle in Round 3. They also haven’t lost to a Victorian side at home since losing to the Tigers by 17 points in Round 18 last year.

Despite their sloppy display on the Gold Coast last week, Adam Simpson’s men will relish taking on the two-time reigning premiers on their home deck this Saturday night.

Reigning Brownlow Medallist Matt Priddis and Coleman Medal leader Josh Kennedy are the two players the club will rely on as they attempt to end a four-game losing streak against the Hawks dating back to Round 23, 2012.

Advertisement

The Hawks not only need to shut down those two, but also the Eagles midfield if they are to have any chance.

It will be close, but I’ll back the hosts in this one.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by six points.

Melbourne versus North Melbourne
The Dees ended an 11-game winless streak against the Pies with a 47-point victory at the MCG last week, and have their sights on ending another long winless streak, this time against North Melbourne, which currently sits at 13.

The win over Collingwood, which was their sixth for the season, came on the back of a best-on-ground performance from Bernie Vince for his shutdown role on Pies captain Scott Pendlebury.

But as good as they were against the Pies, they will need to be even better against North Melbourne, who have won five of their last six matches to break into the eight for the first time this season.

While he had limited impact, Jarrad Waite had a 200th game to remember as the Roos put his old side Carlton to the sword, winning by 64 points to log their 10th win for the season.

Advertisement

Given their impressive form in the past month, it’ll be hard going past North as they look to continue their late season charge up the ladder after a poor first half of the season.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 30 points.

Greater Western Sydney Giants versus Essendon
Coming off an embarrassing 87-point loss to the Western Bulldogs last Sunday, the Bombers will be out to redeem themselves when they face the GWS Giants at Spotless Stadium.

It will be their third trip to Sydney’s Olympic Park precinct this year, having lost to the Giants by 45 points in a pre-season fixture in March, and then losing to the Sydney Swans by 12 points at the nearby ANZ Stadium in Round 1.

The Bombers’ poor form sees them enter this match as underdogs, and marks a significant step backwards after the club made the finals in 2014 under caretaker coach Mark Thompson.

The Giants were far from disgraced in going down to Fremantle by 21 points in Perth, however a poor first quarter and a dubious umpiring decision in the third did not help their cause against the Dockers.

Currently sitting 10th, with a 9-8 win-loss record, Leon Cameron’s men must win if they are to remain in finals contention, especially with a tough fortnight against Port Adelaide and the Sydney Swans to follow.

Advertisement

With the Bombers down on form and confidence, this shapes as the Giants’ best chance yet to not only break their duck against that club, but also take another step towards qualifying for September for the first time.

Prediction: GWS Giants by 40 points.

St Kilda versus Fremantle
To finish off the round, St Kilda will be out to dent Fremantle’s confidence going into September, and take another step forward in their well-planned rebuild.

The Saints famously upset the Dockers by 58 points in the corresponding match last year, ending an 11-match losing streak, while also handing Ross Lyon’s men a huge reality check by knocking them out of the top two.

It marked a major step forward for the Saints as they look to return to the top four by 2018, through obtaining high draft picks and ensuring that the club makes the transition into the post-Nick Riewoldt era, whenever that might come, seamlessly.

Although the Dockers will enter this match as hot favourites, recent history does in fact favour the Saints, who have won 10 of the last 12 meetings against the Dockers dating back to 2007. The Dockers’ only wins in that time came in early 2012 and mid-2013.

The Saints, who have won six matches this season and are coming off a 63-point loss to Port Adelaide, will also have Sean Dempster playing his 200th game, and so the club will be keen to lift for his milestone match.

Advertisement

That being said, the Saints can cause another upset over the Dockers, despite the gulf between the two sides on the ladder, and dent any confidence the Purple Haze may have as they march towards September.

Prediction: St Kilda by 18 points.

close