The 2015 AFL finals are just two weeks away, yet in this remarkably even year of footy, there is still so much movement that could happen among the top eight.
Trying to figure out the mathematics of how each team could rise and fall is enough to do your head in. Why not skip that and just check my little cheat sheet on the best and worst possibilities for each of the nine sides still in finals contention?
Fremantle
Best case scenario: The Dockers will be hoping Adelaide best West Coast on Sunday. If that happens, Freo only need a win against Melbourne in the last game of the round to secure their first minor premiership.
That would give them a softer match-up in the first week of finals, and the chance to rest some important players in the final round with no consequence.
Worst case scenario: The Eagles defeat the Crows, and then the Dockers drop the ball in Round 23 against Port Adelaide. Not only do Dockers fans suffer the indignity of having top spot stolen by their cross-town rivals, they then face the tough prospect of a qualifying final against Hawthorn.
West Coast
Best case scenario: The Eagles score wins against Adelaide and St Kilda in the two last weeks of the season while seeing Fremantle stumble with a loss to either Melbourne or Port Adelaide, and swoop in to claim top spot on the ladder. It might not make a huge difference to their finals campaign, but Eagles fans get to remind Dockers fans about it every day for the next 30 or 40 years.
Worst case scenario: The Eagles somehow put in shockers against both the Crows and the Saints, allowing Hawthorn or Sydney to overtake them for second spot and then face a trip to either Victoria or New South Wales in the first week of finals.
Hawthorn
Best case scenario: Either West Coast or Fremantle seriously mess up in the final two weeks of the season by losing both their games, allowing the Hawks to jump in and grab a top-two spot, and therefore a home qualifying final at the MCG.
Worst case scenario: In an almost impossible twist of fate, the Hawks somehow lose their remaining two games of the season to Brisbane (18th) and Carlton (17th), and drop out of the top four to be overtaken by Richmond, the Western Bulldogs or North Melbourne.
Sydney
Best case scenario: In the Swans’ last two games of the season, they somehow defeat St Kilda and Gold Coast to the tune of about 200 points each, while at the same time West Coast lose both their remaining games, allowing the Swans to jump into second spot. A tad unrealistic.
Worst case scenario: The Swans drop either of their last two games – with St Kilda probably the bigger threat of the two – allowing one of Richmond, the Western Bulldogs or North Melbourne to catch up and push them out of the top four.
Richmond
Best case scenario: Sydney drop one of their last two games while the Tigers finish with wins against Essendon and North Melbourne in the final fortnight, allowing them to jump into the top four and gain a valuable double chance in finals.
Worst case scenario: Adelaide win their last two games and the Tigers drop one or both of theirs, seeing the Crows leapfrog the Tigers and forcing Richmond to travel interstate for another knock-out final at Adelaide Oval in the first week. Could theoretically miss finals altogether if they lose their last two by big margins and Geelong win their last two.
Western Bulldogs
Best case scenario: Much like the Tigers – either the Swans or the Hawks slip up badly, while the Dogs snag two wins straight and move into the top four. Requires them to defeat North Melbourne at home this week and Brisbane on the road next.
Worst case scenario: The Dogs drop their match to North this week (or less likely, to the Lions next week) and drop into seventh or eighth, meaning they face an away final. Only becomes a serious problem if Adelaide leapfrog them into fifth or sixth and they have to face an interstate trip. Like the Tigers, they could theoretically miss finals altogether if they badly lose their last two and Geelong win their last two.
North Melbourne
Best case scenario: The Kangaroos rack up wins eighth and ninth-in-a-row over the Bulldogs and Richmond in the next two weeks, then enter a home elimination final against one of those two teams with the supreme confidence of knowing they’re the better team. Can still theoretically make top four if the Hawks or Swans slip up.
Worst case scenario: They get stopped in their tracks by the Dogs and the Tigers in successive weeks, seeing their percentage drop, while Adelaide defeat West Coast and Geelong win their last two, and both clubs overtake North on the ladder seeing them finish ninth and miss the finals.
Adelaide
Best case scenario: If North Melbourne beat the Western Bulldogs and Richmond in the next two weeks and Adelaide win against West Coast and Geelong, the Crows could still finish sixth and host a home final against either the Bulldogs or the Tigers.
Bizarrely, they could still finish third by winning both their remaining games if Hawthorn and Sydney both lose all remaining games, and Richmond, the Bulldogs and North all lose at least one more game.
Worst case scenario: They fall short against West Coast on Sunday and then again against Geelong next week, finishing ninth and missing finals altogether.
Geelong
Best case scenario: The Cats bank a win against Collingwood on Friday night before watching Adelaide lose to West Coast on Sunday, meaning the Cats get to host the Crows in a do-or-die virtual elimination final in Round 23 at Simonds Stadium, where the winner will finish eighth and play finals.
Worst case scenario: Either the Cats get upset by Collingwood, or Adelaide record a win over West Coast, ruling Geelong out of finals and making their Round 23 match with the Crows a dead rubber.
The key matches
North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs, Saturday August 29, Etihad Stadium 4:35pm AEST
Adelaide vs West Coast, Sunday August 30, Adelaide Oval 1:10pm AEST
Richmond vs North Melbourne, Friday September 4, Etihad Stadium 7:50pm AEST
Geelong vs Adelaide, Saturday September 5, Simonds Stadium 1:05pm AEST
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