Last week’s results so badly ruined the first version of my AFL finals cheat sheet that it’s worth running the numbers again.
Collingwood’s upset win over Geelong on Friday night locked in our eight finalists for the year, but what’s not locked in is where they could finish within the top eight, and what the first week match-ups will be come finals.
AFL FINALS FORMAT EXPLAINED: HOW DOES THE AFL FINALS SYSTEM WORK?
So what’s the go – how high could they rise, how far could they fall? I’ve calculated each team’s best and worst possibility, no matter how bizarre it might be.
Fremantle
Best case scenario: The Dockers have already achieved their optimum scenario due largely to West Coast stumbling against Adelaide on the weekend. That gave them first place on a platter and the opportunity to rest all of their important players this week ahead of finals.
Worst case scenario: Probably the only thing that could go wrong for the Dockers this week would be if Hawthorn somehow lost to Carlton, allowing the Swans to overtake them into third and setting the Dockers up against the Hawks in Week 1, arguably the toughest possible opponent.
West Coast
Best case scenario: So long as the Eagles win at home against St Kilda, which they should do comfortably, they’ve got a top-two spot locked in. The only way it could get better for them would be if the Hawks stumbled against Carlton and let Sydney into third, giving West Coast an arguably easier match-up against Sydney in the first week of finals.
Worst case scenario: The Eagles’ worst nightmare at this stage would be a loss to St Kilda, allowing one or both of Hawthorn and Sydney to jump ahead of them.
That’d see them sink either to third, where they’d face the prospect of an away final in Victoria or New South Wales, or more likely to fourth, which wouldn’t be so bad as they’d still be playing in Perth – against Fremantle.
Hawthorn
Best case scenario: The Hawks’ only hope of improving their station would be if West Coast drop the ball against St Kilda, allowing Hawthorn to jump into second spot by beating Carlton.
Worst case scenario: There’s not really much downside for the Hawks, they can’t possibly miss top four unless they lose to Carlton by a margin of around 500 points or so, which would be the most remarkable thing to happen in the entire history of the game.
If they were to lose on the weekend they could drop to fourth but at this stage they’re locked in to play an interstate final in Week 1 whether they’re in third or fourth, so it doesn’t really get worse or better either way.
Sydney
Best case scenario: The Swans could still theoretically finish top two but it requires two bizarre upsets, West Coast losing to St Kilda and Hawthorn losing to Carlton. If that were to happen then a win over Gold Coast would see the Swans jump to second and host a home final.
Worst case scenario: The Swans’ worst fear would be a loss to Gold Coast this weekend, which would give Richmond or the Bulldogs the chance to finish top four.
Both teams would still have to make up some percentage on the Swans to leapfrog them, but if they did the Swans would be out of the top four and facing an elimination final – albeit at home.
Richmond
Best case scenario: The Tigers can secure a home elimination final with a win over North Melbourne on Friday night, and would still have a chance at making top four if they do, though it would require Sydney to lose to Gold Coast.
The combined margin across both games would have to be around the mark of 60 points or so for the Tigers to finish fourth.
Worst case scenario: A loss on Friday night, combined with wins to Adelaide and the Bulldogs, would see Adelaide rise to sixth and the Tigers fall to seventh, meaning another interstate elimination final for the Tigers against a red-hot Adelaide. Scary.
Western Bulldogs
Best case scenario: Like the Tigers the Bulldogs can secure at least a home elimination final with a win this week and give themselves a chance at the top four – if the Swans lose to Gold Coast, that is.
The Bulldogs need a combined margin of about 120 points across their win over Brisbane and Sydney’s loss to Gold Coast – and they’d need to keep their percentage ahead of Richmond’s as well if the Tigers win.
Worst case scenario: If Richmond and Adelaide both win on the weekend and the Bulldogs drop their game to Brisbane they’d sink to seventh and face an elimination final against the Crows at Adelaide Oval.
North Melbourne
Best case scenario: North could still finish fifth, so long as the Bulldogs lose to Brisbane, Adelaide lose to Geelong, and North themselves defeat Richmond by around 120 points. So not super likely.
Really, North seem set to have an MCG final against Richmond or the Bulldogs almost regardless of this weekend’s results.
Worst case scenario: There is a slight, slight chance of North having to travel to Adelaide in the first week of finals.
It requires to North to defeat Richmond, Adelaide to defeat Geelong, and then either Brisbane to defeat the Bulldogs, or North’s margin against Richmond to be so big (again we’re talking around 120 points) that they overtake the Tigers on percentage. Again – not likely.
Adelaide
Best case scenario: Adelaide need either Richmond to lose to North Melbourne, or the Bulldogs to lose to Brisbane. If it happens, then all the Crows need do is beat Geelong to jump into sixth and host a home final.
Worst case scenario: Either both the Tigers and the Bulldogs win on the weekend or the Crows fall short against the Cats, and in the first week of finals Adelaide will either have to travel to Victoria or Sydney if the Swans lose to the Gold Coast.
We’re taking a look at one player from each team that needs to make a difference this week, starting with the ANZAC Day games.
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