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2015 AFL finals series: Week 1 preview

Roar Guru
9th September, 2015
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And then there were eight. After 23 rounds of regular competition, eight teams will fight it out over the course of four weeks for footy’s ultimate prize – the premiership.

Hawthorn, Fremantle, the Sydney Swans, Richmond and North Melbourne all return from last year, while the Western Bulldogs, West Coast Eagles and Adelaide Crows will feature in September for the first time since 2010 and 2012 (in the case of the Eagles and Crows) respectively.

It all kicks off on Friday night when the competition’s most improved side, the West Coast Eagles, take on reigning premiers Hawthorn in the first of the two qualifying finals to be played in Perth, with the other to feature minor premiers Fremantle up against the Sydney Swans.

The two elimination finals will be played at the MCG, with the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide Crows to face off in their third finals meeting against each other on Saturday night, and Richmond and North Melbourne to clash for the second time in as many weeks on Sunday.

Here is the full preview to the first week of the 2015 AFL finals series.

West Coast Eagles versus Hawthorn
Friday, September 11
6:20pm AWST
Domain Stadium

Regular season result: Hawthorn 13.10 (88) defeated West Coast Eagles 11.8 (74) at Domain Stadium, Round 19, 2015.

Last meeting in a final: West Coast Eagles 14.16 (100) defeated Hawthorn 12.15 (87) at Subiaco Oval, elimination final, 1992.

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The AFL finals will kick off on Friday night with the first of two qualifying finals to be played in the west, between the West Coast Eagles and Hawthorn in their first final against each other since 1992.

The Eagles have defied a horror injury toll, especially in their backline, to finish second this season under second-year coach Adam Simpson, who for the second time will come up against his master at Hawthorn, Alastair Clarkson, at home.

After winning the Brownlow Medal last year, midfielder Matt Priddis continues to go from strength to strength, as has ruckman Nic Naitanui and full-forward Josh Kennedy, whose 75 regular season goals landed him the Coleman Medal, just the second for a West Coast Eagles player after Scott Cummings in 1999.

These three will be key to the Eagles winning through to their first home preliminary final since 2005 this Friday night – Naitanui was missing due to the death of his mother when they lost to the Hawks by just 14 points back in Round 19.

The two-time reigning premiers face a mammoth task in their bid to win a third consecutive premiership – not only do they have to start off in the west, they may also have to take on the Eagles without Isaac Smith, who suffered a knee injury in their huge win over Carlton last Saturday night.

However, they will get captain Luke Hodge back after he was suspended for two weeks for rough conduct against Port Adelaide’s Chad Wingard in Round 21.

And so, all is set for what should be a blockbuster between the competition’s most improved side, and the reigning premiers, to kick off this year’s finals series. As I identified before, I believe that Nic Naitanui will be the difference.

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Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 10 points.

Fremantle versus Sydney Swans
Saturday, September 12
1:20pm AWST
Domain Stadium

Regular season result: Fremantle 11.8 (74) defeated Sydney Swans 8.12 (60) at Domain Stadium, Round 4, 2015.

Last meeting in a final: Sydney Swans 13.15 (93) defeated Fremantle 10.9 (69) at ANZ Stadium, first qualifying final, 2014.

The Sydney Swans’ premiership hopes could be over before the finals series has even begun.

On top of the loss of midfielder Luke Parker (ankle), defender Nick Smith (hamstring) and captain Kieren Jack (knee), forward Lance Franklin will be missing after a diagnosis of mild epilepsy was revealed during the week.

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That has seen their premiership odds blow out, and makes more likely their chances of crashing out of this year’s finals in straight sets, just as Fremantle and Geelong did last year, West Coast did in 2007 and Port Adelaide did in 2001.

This weekend John Longmire’s men trek west for a third time this year to face the Dockers, who have been the most consistent team of this season, leading the ladder since their Round 4 win over the Swans which formed part of a nine-game winning streak.

Already the Swans are none from two in Perth this year, having also gone down to the West Coast Eagles by 52 points back in Round 17. Thus, the trip west will pose as another massive nightmare to the 2012 premiers.

The Dockers will present more of a threat this weekend than the B-side team Ross Lyon sent to the Oval, where the club suffered a meaningless 69-point loss to a Port Adelaide side which had nothing but pride to play for.

However, the club will get the likes of Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands and Luke McPharlin back for what will be their fourth meeting against the Swans in a final, having met in the corresponding match at ANZ Stadium last year.

The resting of senior players prior to the finals series has worked wonders for the Dockers twice before – in 2010, they defeated Hawthorn in an elimination final a fortnight after being thrashed by the same team by 116 points in Launceston, while the side that shocked Geelong at Simonds Stadium was incomparable to the one that was thrashed by St Kilda by 71 points at Etihad Stadium seven days earlier.

Thus, there is reason to believe that Fremantle can once again produce the odd turnaround, and against a weakened Sydney Swans team that has had to rack up the frequent flyer points this year, there will be no excuses.

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Prediction: Fremantle by 36 points.

Western Bulldogs versus Adelaide Crows
Saturday, September 12
7:20pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground

Regular season result: Western Bulldogs 18.17 (125) defeated Adelaide Crows 10.8 (68) at Etihad Stadium, Round 4, 2015.

Last meeting in a final: Adelaide Crows 24.17 (161) defeated Western Bulldogs 13.15 (93) at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, second preliminary final, 1998.

If there is one team that has defied the odds to reach this year’s finals, it’s the Adelaide Crows.

Midway through the regular season, the club was rocked by the sudden death of head coach Phil Walsh, seemingly throwing its season into total disarray. The club had done well under his coaching to be in the eight at the time of his passing.

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But if there is one man who has done his best to keep the Crows in contention, it’s caretaker coach Scott Camporeale. The former Carlton and Essendon legend guided the Crows to six wins from nine matches since he was thrust into the top job, and as such deserves the credit for the Crows’ impressive 2015 season.

This Saturday night they come up against the Western Bulldogs, whose thrashing of the Crows by 57 points way back in Round 4 saw the club lose one key area – ground-ball possession – for a third consecutive match.

Then-coach Phil Walsh famously threatened to make the players jump off a jetty if they lost that stat – which they did – but instead the players were sentenced to an early morning swim the morning after that heavy defeat back in April.

As for the Bulldogs, the club have emerged from arguably its’ most tumultuous off-season since the 2003 wooden spoon to feature in the finals for the first time since 2010 – with all the credit going to rookie coach Luke Beveridge.

At the end of last season, which concluded with a heartbreaking six-point loss to the GWS Giants at Etihad Stadium, the club lost their captain, coach, CEO and over 700 games of experience, leaving it seemingly in ruins.

That led to predictions from many that the club’s demise could result in a wooden spoon, but instead Beveridge installed a game plan that throughout the season had the Bulldogs playing a fast and exciting brand of football.

Wins over the West Coast Eagles, Adelaide Crows and Sydney Swans early in the season showcased their potential, with the win over the latter going down as arguably one of the most famous wins in recent club history.

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Now, the club will be making its first finals appearance since 2010, but will be fuming that this match isn’t at Etihad Stadium where the club have won 11 of their 13 games this season, including that over the Crows back in Round 4.

The AFL had initially said that the Bulldogs’ home final would only be played at Etihad Stadium if it was against the Crows, a team that traditionally doesn’t draw a high crowd interstate despite their high crowd numbers at home.

However, the potential for a large crowd means that the Bulldogs will have to instead settle for the MCG, where they have split their two matches this season, defeating Richmond in Round 2 before losing to Melbourne six rounds later.

Despite this disadvantage, the Bulldogs, who will regain key personnel following their final round loss to the Brisbane Lions, should continue their fairytale season deep into the finals.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 24 points.

Richmond versus North Melbourne
Sunday, September 13
3:20pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground

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Regular season results: North Melbourne 16.13 (109) defeated Richmond 10.14 (74) at Blundstone Arena, Round 6; Richmond 16.12 (108) defeated North Melbourne 10.7 (67) at Etihad Stadium, Round 23.

Last meeting in a final: North Melbourne 17.12 (114) defeated Richmond 12.12 (84) at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, qualifying final, 1995.

For the second time in as many weeks, Richmond and North Melbourne will be up against each other, after the Tigers defeated a weakened Kangaroos side by 41 points at Etihad Stadium last Friday night.

That result saw the Tigers finish fifth for the second time in three years, meaning they will once again be the home team this Sunday. And with the match to be played at the MCG, Damien Hardwick’s men will be strongly advantaged.

And they have reason to be, even though in 2013 they lost to a Carlton side which technically finished ninth but were promoted to eighth after Essendon were booted out of that year’s finals series as punishment for their ongoing ASADA woes.

Their other final last year saw them suffer a humiliating 57-point loss to Port Adelaide at the Oval in which the Power started strongly to leave the Tigers on the back foot right from the get-go.

After two years of early exits, this year has got to be third time lucky for the Tigers who haven’t won a final, or reached a preliminary final, since 2001 when it was easily beaten by eventual premiers the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba by 68 points.

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As for North Melbourne, the club appeared to struggle with the weight of expectations when they produced a poor first half of the season, the worst results of which were a 77-point thrashing by the Adelaide Crows in Round 1 and a 55-point loss to the Gold Coast Suns in Round 14.

Since then, however, the club strung together a seven-match winning streak, culminating in an eleven-point victory over ladder leader Fremantle in Round 21, before finishing eighth on the back of two losses to finish the regular season.

If the Kangaroos are to repeat last year’s run to the preliminary final, they will have to defy history to do so. No side has ever finished eighth and gone that far, but if they do, they’ll most likely have to face the Sydney Swans in a semi-final at ANZ Stadium, the scene of their 71-point loss in the preliminary final last year.

However, given the Swans’ injury woes, the winner of this elimination final will fancy their chances of reaching the preliminary final given the red and white will be backing up from another long trip west.

Prediction: Richmond by 18 points.

What’s next?
* The winners of the West Coast versus Hawthorn and Fremantle versus Sydney matches will go straight to week three where they will host a preliminary final.
* The losers will be thrust into respective semi-finals against the winners of the Western Bulldogs versus Adelaide and Richmond versus North Melbourne matches.

Thus, if the first week results unfold as predicted, the second week could look like this.

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Semi-finals
Sydney Swans versus Richmond (winner faces West Coast in Perth in preliminary final)
Hawthorn versus Western Bulldogs (winner faces Fremantle in Perth in preliminary final)

All is now set for what should be an intriguing 2015 AFL finals series.

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