The first week of the NRL finals kicks off this Friday as the Roosters host Melbourne, with the Dragons meeting the Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium on Saturday.

Melbourne Storm may be missing key player Billy Slater, but the Sydney Roosters’ recent injuries to Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Mitchell Pearce will even the contest.

Meanwhile, the Canterbury Bulldogs appear to have the upper hand over the St George-Illawarra Dragons, who will be missing Gareth Widdop.

Roosters vs Storm
7:55pm, Friday 11 September, Allianz Stadium

The History

Overall: This is the 30th game between these two sides dating back to 1998. It stands at 14 wins for the Roosters, 15 for the Storm.

Finals: Amazingly, in spite of these sides both having played in 42.7 per cent of the finals games in the NRL era (67 of the 157 finals matches: Roosters 32, Storm 35), this is only the second time they have met in a finals match. The first being a 26-16 win for the Roosters at Olympic Park, Melbourne in 1998.

The last 10: The last 10 games between the sides have been split down the middle.

At this venue: There have been 10 games between the sides at this venue with the Roosters winning seven and the Storm three. They last met here in Round 12 on June 1 with the Roosters winning easily 24-2.

Defence

Team Stats – average per game 2015

Stat	Roosters	Storm	Difference
Line breaks conceded	2.8 (1st)	3.0 (2nd)	+0.2 Storm
Missed tackles	25.6 (7th)	22 (1st)	+3.6 Roosters
Trys conceded	2.2 (1st)	2.5 (2nd)	+0.3 Storm
Meters conceded	1339.5 (2nd)	1403.9 (7th)	+64.4 Storm
Penalties conceded	6.6 (8th)	6.5 (9th)	+0.1 Roosters

These two sides have been the benchmark for watertight defence in 2015 and there is barely a split hair between them. While the Storm concede slightly more metres, the Roosters miss more tackles.

Whereas in the past I’ve made the case that the Roosters have in large part maintained the integrity of their try line through deliberately conceding penalties to give their defensive line time to reset, this season their penalties conceded has plummeted from the highest in the NRL in 2013 and 2014 to the NRL average this season.

Notably, the Storm, the second highest transgressor in 2014, have also conceded just the NRL average in 2015.

Given these strong defensive stats from both sides, you can expect a very tight game.

Player Stats

Stat	Roosters	Storm
Tackles made	Jake Friend – 43 Aidan Guerra – 34 Boyd Cordner – 28 Dylan Napa – 28	Cam Smith – 43 Kevin Proctor – 34 Tohu Harris – 33 Jesse Bromwich – 33
Missed tackles	James Maloney – 4 Blake Ferguson – 2.5	Will Chambers – 2.1 Cooper Cronk – 1.7
Penalties conceded	James Maloney – 22 Kane Evans – 14	Cameron Smith – 25 Jesse Bromwich – 14

In recent years the top NRL sides have started breaking away from having one main tackler – usually the lock or hooker – who consistently made 45-plus tackles a game, with the rest of the pack averaging in the low 20s. Now we are seeing three or four players in the pack committing to large tackling workloads.

These players each work a zone: the centre, right side or left side. The Roosters and the Storm are the leading proponents of this. While captains Jakes Friend and Cameron Smith lead the way for their respective sides, they’ve got a gang of big, fast and strong forwards sharing the tackling load and holding the line.

Unsurprisingly the biggest defensive liabilities for both sides are in the backs. James Maloney is a turnstile, missing four tackles on average a match. It puts a big burden on the defenders on either side of him. Cooper Cronk will be aiming Kevin Proctor or Tohu Harris at Maloney all night.

The weakness for the Storm is Will Chambers. The Queenslander has had a pretty strong year in attack, however his average of two missed tackles a game will be tested by Blake Ferguson and Shaun Kenny-Dowall.

As you can see, both Maloney and Smith are their sides’ biggest transgressors. Both give away tactical penalties when the need arises.

Attack

Team Stats – average per game 2015

Stat	Roosters	Storm	Difference
Line breaks	5.2 (1st)	4.3 (9th)	+0.9 Roosters
Tackle breaks	34.3 (1st)	25 (12th)	+9.3 Roosters
Trys scored	4.17 (3rd)	3.42 (9th)	+0.75 Roosters
Meters made	1553 (2nd)	1400 (8th)	+153 Roosters
Penalties received	6 (13th)	6.5 (8th)	+0.5 Storm
Errors	11.2 (13th)	9.1 (1st)	+2.1 Roosters

While the two sides are hard to separate in defence, in attack there is a clear difference. The Roosters score almost one extra try per game over the Storm, break a massive nine extra tackles a game and average an extra 153 metres a game more than the Purple Pride.

While the Roosters’ attack is around the same level of excellence as it was last year, the Storm’s attack has fallen away badly. The reason? Two words: Billy Slater. Without Billy the Kid the Storm attack has become pedestrian. Only Cooper Cronk’s superb generalship keeps them competitive. He’ll need to be at his very best in this game.

You will note that the Storm are still playing their error free brand of football very well. Once more they have made the fewest errors of any side. However, as we’ve explored before, errors aren’t just a sign of sloppy play, they are also a strong indicator of adventurous attack. You can be sure that the Roosters’ high error rate has far more to do with their rapier like attack than it does with ineptitude.

Player Stats

Stat	Roosters	Storm
Tackle breaks	Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – 6.5 (#1 NRL) Daniel Tupou – 75	Cameron Munster – 5.4 Marika Koroibete – 3.5
Line breaks	Daniel Tupou – 17 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – 15	Marika Koroibete – 19 Will Chambers – 10 Blake Green – 10 Cameron Munster – 10
Metres gained	Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – 216 Dylan Napa – 116 Boyd Cordner – 113	Cameron Munster -164 Marika Koroibete – 153 Jesse Bromwich – 149
Trys scored	Daniel Tupou – 16 Shaun Kenny-Dowall – 13	Marika Koroibete – 15 Will Chambers – 10
Try assists	James Maloney – 19 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – 10	Cooper Cronk -16 Blake Green – 9
Line break assists	James Maloney – 14 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – 10	Cooper Cronk – 12 Blake Green – 10
Errors	Daniel Tupou – 34 Blake Ferguson – 31	Marika Koroibete – 25 Will Chambers – 24

We all could see that Roger Tuivasa-Sheck was special when he turned up a few seasons ago. I was one who questioned the wisdom of not having him at fullback last season. This season he has destroyed the joint.

Fifteen linebreaks, 10 try assists, 10 line break assists and NRL leading stats in metres per game (216) and tackle breaks per game (6.5) are the stats of a champion. The Storm must keep the New Zealand-bound fullback quiet or they’ll pay dearly.

While Blake Green has played a useful role next to Cronk, he is no Gareth Widdop. Further, the real threat from the Melbourne attack is quite predictable as it clearly comes from the right hand side of Chambers and Marika Koroibete.

There has been a lot of talk of young Cameron Munster going from strength to strength in place of Slater at the back. If the Storm are genuinely to challenge both in this match and in 2015 he must grab the bull by the horns now and provide the deadly attack that the Storm are so sorely missing.

The danger men
As stated above, Tuivasa-Sheck is on fire. He’ll cut the Storm up given half the chance.

This is a huge occasion for Ferguson, the last time he played finals was against the Rabbitohs in 2012 while playing for the Raiders. He’ll be itching for a big game and targeting Will Chambers defence.

Team leaders from the Storm Smith and Cronk are the Roosters’ biggest hurdle. Their excellent and experienced leadership can ensure their side stays focused in the heat of battle. The Roosters need to put as much pressure on them as they can.

Who is going to win and why
The last time these two sides met was back in Round 12 at this venue when the Storm had just lost Slater. The Roosters won 24-2 that night. However, the absence of Slater and Dale Finucane for the Storm has now been offset by the absence of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Mitchell Pearce for the Roosters.

So the big question is: “can Jackson Hastings stand up against the clinical experience of the Storm in his very first finals outing?” I reckon he’ll do it tough, though the Roosters certainly have the individual strike power to overcome that.

However, I reckon the Storm are going to strangle the life out of the Roosters in this game.

Prediction: Storm by two

Bulldogs vs Dragons
5.50pm, Saturday 12 September, ANZ Stadium

The History

Overall: This will be the 147th match between these sides dating back to 1935. It currently stands at Bulldogs 55, Dragons 85, with five draws.

Finals: In spite of these two sides having played 79 seasons against each other, during which time they have taken part in 225 finals matches (Bulldogs 90, St George Illawarra 135), this is only the 12th finals contest between them. The Bulldogs have won seven, the Dragons five.

The first finals clash was back in 1942 when a young Ray Lindwall, the future Australian fast bowler and Test captain, played fullback for the Dragons and scored five conversions for the Red V in their 25-10 win over the Dogs (then Berries).

They have also faced off in two grand finals: the 1979 Dragons triumph and the 1985 Bulldogs victory. This is the first time they’ve met in a final since the 2001 series when the Dragons defeated the Bulldogs 23-22.

This match is the Dragons’ first finals match since 2011. Only three players remain from that match: Mitch Rein, Jason Nightingale and Trent Merrin.

The last 10: The Bulldogs have won six of the last 10 games between these sides. However, they’ve also won six of the last seven. The Dragons’ last victory over the Bulldogs was their 31-6 victory back in Round 6 this year.

At this venue: There has only been one final between these sides played at this venue. That was in 2001 when the Dragons defeated the Bulldogs 23-22.

Defence

Team Stats – average per game 2015

Stat	Bulldogs	Dragons	Difference
Line breaks conceded	3.5 (3rd)	3.8 (6th)	+0.3 Dragons
Missed tackles	23.8 (2nd)	25.6 (6th)	+1.8 Dragons
Trys conceded	3.5 (8th)	3 (4th)	+0.5 Bulldogs
Meters conceded	1466 (13th)	1428 (11th)	+38 Bulldogs
Penalties conceded	5.6 (2nd)	7.1 (14th)	+1.5 Dragons

The Bulldogs defend well. They allow the third fewest line breaks and miss the second fewest tackles. However, for all of that excellent work they still have conceded the average amount of tries this season and are the fourth worst side for metres conceded per game.

The Dragons only truly strong defensive stat is that they only concede three tries a game on average, the fourth best defensive result in the NRL this year. Overall, not much separates these sides in defence.

Player Stats – defence

Stat	Bulldogs	Dragons
Tackles made	Damien Cook – 45 Aiden Tolman – 37 Josh Jackson – 36 James Graham – 31	Mitch Rein – 38 Mike Cooper – 38 Tyson Frizell – 36 Jack de Belin – 35 Trent Merrin – 34
Missed tackles	Moses Mbye – 2.5 Josh Reynolds – 2.2	Gareth Widdop – 2.8 Benji Marshall – 2.4 Peter Matautia – 2.3
Penalties conceded	David Klemmer – 14 Moses Mbye – 13 Josh Jackson – 12 Aiden Tolman -12 Josh Reynolds – 12	Euan Aitken – 13 Tyson Frizell – 10 Ben Creagh – 10

We’ve got a couple of local derbies in the first week of finals, as two Queensland teams face off on Saturday night, before a pair of clubs from Sydney’s south meet on Sunday.

Who’s destined for a week off, who is playing next weekend, and who’s set for a mad one this Monday? Let’s see the stats.

Broncos vs Cowboys
7:55pm, Saturday September 12, Suncorp Stadium

The history

Overall: This will be the 42nd meeting of these two sides since 1995. It stands at Brisbane 28, Cowboys 11 and two draws. The Cowboys didn’t beat the Broncos until their 17th encounter, in 2004, the season before Johnathan Thurston arrived.

Finals: This will be the fourth finals match between the two sides, however it is the first to be played outside of Townsville. The Cowboys have won all three of the finals matches they’ve played against the Broncos so far, the last being their 32-20 elimination of the eighth-placed Broncos in Round 1 of the finals last year.

The last 10: The Cowboys have beaten the Broncos six times out of the last 10 matches. That includes the last time they met in Round 10 in Townsville, when the Cowboys triumphed 31-20.

At this Venue: The sides have met 11 times at Suncorp Stadium, with the Broncos leading seven game to four. The Broncos have won the last three encounters at the ground, including the 44-22 win over the Cowboys back in Round 3. The last time the Cowboys won at Suncorp was in Round 2, 2012.

Defence

Team Stats – average per game 2015

Line breaks conceded	3.5 (4th)	4.3 (8th)	+1.8 Cowboys
Missed tackles	24 (3rd)	24.7 (4th)	+0.7 Cowboys
Tries conceded	2.7 (3rd)	3.3 (5th)	+0.6 Cowboys
Meters conceded	1472 (14th)	1317.4 (1st)	+100.6 Broncos
Penalties conceded	4.9 (1st)	6.0 (3rd)	+1.1 Cowboys

The Broncos lead the defensive stats in all but one category: metres conceded. The Cowboys concede the fewest metres of any side in the NRL this year, however that hasn’t led to bullet-proof defence by any means. The Cowboys can be scored on. It’s much harder to score against the Broncos.

As I predicted last season, the return of Wayne Bennett has brought quick results and the stiffening of their defence is case in point. In fact their defensive structure probably shades that of the Cowboys.

Player Stats

Tackles made	Andrew McCullough – 49 Matt Gillett – 40 Corey Parker – 34 Sam Thaiday -31	Ethan Lowe – 37 Gavin Cooper – 31 Matthew Scott – 30
Missed tackles	Ben Hunt – 3.5 Alex Glenn – 2.3 Anthony Milford – 2.1 Jack Reed – 2.0	Johnathan Thurston – 2.8 Ethan Lowe – 2.4 Michael Morgan – 2.2 Lachlan Coote – 2.1
Penalties conceded	Andrew McCullough – 13 Anthony Milford – 11 Adam Blair – 11	James Tamou – 15 Jake Granville – 13 Ethan Lowe – 13
Errors	Anthony Milford – 40 (#1 NRL)Matt Gillett – 18Corey Oates – 17	Lachlan Coote – 29 Johnathan Thurston – 28 Michael Morgan – 20

Andrew McCullogh leads the way for the Broncos defence. Backed up by the big tackle counts of Matt Gillett, Corey Parker and Sam Thaiday, the Broncos’ no.9 would tackle his grandmother into the grandstand concrete. His opposite number – and former competitor for his jersey – Jake Granville only makes 27 tackles a match. Unlike the Broncos, who have four primary tacklers, apart from Ethan Lowe the Cowboys really spread the defensive load across their entire pack.

When it comes to missed tackles, both halfbacks miss the most for their sides. Thurston’s 2.8 is the worst for the Cowboys, Ben Hunt’s 3.5 is a clear target for opposition attacks. You can see from the above stats that both sides will be targeting the other’s halves in this game.

Anthony Milford has blossomed as a five-eighth this season, really benefitting from the constant on-field guidance of Alan Langer. However, he is the most-error prone player in the NRL – under pressure he could crack, and you can bet the Cowboys will put the blowtorch to his belly.

Attack

Team Stats – average per game 2015

Line breaks	5.0 (2nd)	4.9 (3rd)	+0.1 Broncos
Tackle breaks	27.5 (9th)	30.3 (3rd)	+2.8 Cowboys
Tries scored	4.21 (1st)	4.21 (1st)	Equal
Metres made	1435 (6th)	1568 (1st)	+133 Cowboys
Penalties received	5.9 (14th)	6.3 (10th)	+0.4 Cowboys

In attack there is really only one stat really separates these two sides: metres gained. The Cowboys make the most metres of any side on average in the NRL. They make 133 metres more on average than the Broncos, which means they are 233 metres a match better than the Broncos overall. That’s a huge advantage.

Further, if the Broncos get away to a lead they cannot afford to relax – 10 times this season the Cowboys have run down a lead, and on four occasions it was 18 or greater. The five tries in 11 minutes against the Eels was as good a display of juggernaut football as I’ve ever seen.

With Michael Morgan back at five-eighth, Thurston has all his weapons in place. Assuming his knee is okay, he’ll be looking to tear the Broncos apart.

Player stats

Tackle breaks	Anthony Milford – 3.7 Justin Hodges – 2.9 Corey Oates – 2.7 Corey Parker – 2.5	Lachlan Coote – 3.5 Michael Morgan – 3.3 Jason Taumalolo – 3.3 Kane Linnett – 2.7 Kyle Feldt – 2.6 Johnathan Thurston – 2.2
Line breaks	Lachlan Maranta – 15 Anthony Milford – 14 Jack Reed – 13 Corey Oates – 12 Jordan Kahu – 10	Michael Morgan – 19 Justin ONeill – 14 Lachlan Coote – 11 Jake Granville – 11 Kane Linnett – 11
Metres gained	Corey Parker – 125 Darius Boyd – 121	Jason Taumalolo – 139 James Tamou – 131 Lachlan Coote – 127 Kane Linnett – 125 Matthew Scott – 124
Tries scored	Lachlan Maranta – 15 Corey Oates – 12 Anthony Milford – 11 Ben Hunt – 10	Antonio Winterstein – 14 Michael Morgan – 11 Jake Granville – 10 Kane Linnett – 10
Try assists	Anthony Milford – 17 Ben Hunt – 16	Johnathan Thurston – 22 Lachlan Coote – 14
Line break assists	Anthony Milford – 15 Ben Hunt – 12 Justin Hodges – 10	Johnathan Thurston – 18 Lachlan Coote – 15

It won’t surprise you to hear that Thurston’s 22 try assists are the best in the NRL. However, Milford’s 17 and Hunt’s 16 come in at fourth and fifth respectively – they can be pretty dangerous too. And don’t forget about the retiring Justin Hodges; he’s not just annoying, he’s also very talented.

And if Thurston’s knee isn’t good, can Lachlan Coote and Morgan have anywhere near the effect of their captain?

Having said that, look at the Cowboys’ top metre-eaters – they’ve got big metre-gaining players all across the paddock. The crucial clash will be up front, where Adam Blair and Sam Thaiday have the task of trying to limit James Tamou and Matt Scott. Good luck with that lads.

Meanwhile, if Jason Taumalolo gets going he’s almost impossible to stop, and he’s due a very big one.

The danger men
Johnathan Thurston is the best player in the NRL. While Jarryd Hayne was at the Eels and Greg Inglis was injury free there was some debate, not this year though.

He’s head and shoulders above all others, and if he doesn’t win the Dally M this season it’s a fix. He is the key to the Cowboys winning this game.

Taumalolo, as stated above, is due a big one. He can scatter the best defences like nine pins when his blood is up.

Anthony Milford has so much talent and skill. He can tear through the best opposition defences when he’s on. Will he be on though? The last time he played on the big stage was in the 2012 Under-20s grand final, where he tried to do it all and ended up doing not much.

Hunt likewise must step up and prove his huge potential translates into being a big-game player.

Darius Boyd is a big-game player and he is also due a big game. Bennett rates him for a reason. This match may well showcase why.

Who is going to win and why
Brisbane’s home-ground advantage will be a big factor. But if Morgan and Thurston are fit – and they may not be – the Cowboys are ready to really challenge this season.

The Broncos’ defence on the line has been superb this year, but Thurston knows he can get through any line – and his troops totally believe that he can too.

Prediction: Cowboys by 10.

Sharks vs Rabbitohs
4.10pm, Sunday September 13, Allianz Stadium

The history

Overall: This will be the 92nd match between these two sides since the Sharks were admitted to the NSWRL in 1967. The Sharks have won 47, the Rabbitohs 41, with three draws.

Finals: Would you believe that in 48 seasons these two sides have never met in a finals match. Not once. Not ever. That is in spite of them playing a combined 68 finals between them in that time (38 Sharks, 30 Rabbitohs).

The last 10: The Rabbitohs have won six of the last 10 matches between these sides, however over the last eight games the winner has alternated. If that pattern is followed then the Rabbitohs will prevail.

The last encounter between the sides was played in the torrential rain at Shark Park back in Round 7, the Sharks winning 18-10.

At this venue: These two sides have met at this venue a total of 12 times, with the Sharks holding a 9-3 advantage. However, the last match between them here was a decade ago, in 2005, when the Rabbitohs ran out 24-14 winners.

Defence

Team Stats – average per game 2015

Line breaks conceded	3.8 (5th)	4.3 (7th)	+0.5 Rabbitohs
Missed tackles	26.1 (9th)	25.3 (5th)	+0.8 Sharks
Tries conceded	3.3 (6th)	3.5 (9th)	+0.2 Rabbitohs
Metres conceded	1349.7 (3rd)	1409.7 (8th)	+60 Rabbitohs
Penalties conceded	6.5 (7th)	7.0 (12th)	+0.5 Rabbitohs

Cronulla has a slight edge across the board. Having said that, it was only six rounds ago that the Bunnies had a distinct advantage in all these categories over the Sharks.  

In just five matches the wheels have fallen off the Rabbitohs’ billy cart. They’ve conceded 155 points in those rounds, at an average of 31 per game. Their defence has likewise taken a hit, conceding 7894 metres at 1579 a match – far worse than the 1409 in the chart above. They’ve also missed 41 tackles on average in those five matches – 16 worse than their season average.

Finally, the Bunnies are averaging 5.4 tries conceded a game. Conversely, the Sharks’ defence has improved as the season has gone on, and is a large part of why they have won seven of their last nine games.

Player stats

Tackles made	Michael Ennis – 37 Paul Gallen – 35 Andrew Fifita – 31	Glenn Stewart – 36 George Burgess – 32 Kyle Turner – 30 Issac Luke – 30
Missed tackles	Luke Lewis – 3.1 Jack Bird – 2.9 Jeff Robson – 2.8	Kirisome Auvaa – 3.8 Paul Carter – 3.7 Adam Reynolds – 3.1 Luke Keary – 2.6 Glenn Stewart – 2.4 Dylan Walker – 2.2
Penalties conceded	Andrew Fifita – 19 Luke Lewis – 18 Michael Ennis – 18 Wade Graham – 14	Tim Grant – 18 George Burgess – 18 Chris McQueen – 16
Errors	Michael Gordon – 28 Wade Graham – 22 Andrew Fifita – 19 Valentine Holmes – 18	Alex Johnston – 26 Chris Grevsmuhl – 18 George Burgess – 18 Thomas Burgess – 17

Just look how much George Burgess features in the above table. His and Issac Luke’s absence have put a huge hole in the Rabbitohs already perforated defensive line.

Kirisome Auva’a has returned from suspension with a major problem with his tackling. He is averaging 3.8 misses a game and he’ll have traffic coming at him all afternoon.

Then there are Paul Carter and Adam Reynolds, who are missing 3.7 and 3.1 respectively. How can Michael Maguire repair that? The player stats show that there is likely to be a fair few errors and penalties in this game too.

For the Sharks, Luke Lewis could be getting to his use by date. He is averaging 3.1 missed tackles a game and has given away 18 penalties this season. Does he have one more big effort in him?

Attack

Team stats – average per game 2015

Line breaks	4.1 (11th)	4.3 (8th)	+0.2 Rabbitohs
Tackle breaks	29.3 (4th)	29.5 (3rd)	+0.2 Rabbitohs
Tries scored	3.21 (13th)	3.33 (10th)	+0.12 Rabbitohs
Metres made	1455 (3rd)	1358 (14th)	+97 Sharks
Penalties received	7.8 (1st)	6.8 (5th)	+1 Sharks

I said before the season that the loss of Sam Burgess was really going to hurt the Rabbitohs. It has – and how.

They’ve gone from being the second-best metre-gaining side in 2014 to the third-worst this season. In 2014 they were the top try-scoring side, this year they are in between the Warriors and Newcastle in 10th. And as with the defensive stats above, all of their attack stats have been declining rapidly in the final five rounds. It is hard to see how they can possibly get their mojo back in time for this game.

For the Sharks, Paul Gallen has copped a fair bit of criticism for his one-out runs not having the creativity the Sharks need. The stats reflect that, while the Sharks make great metres and break lots of tackles, they are still a fair way off the mark when it comes to scoring tries – especially if they are genuinely going to challenge for the title.

They do seem to have the favour of the whistle blowers this season though, being awarded the most penalties of any side.

Player stats

Tackle breaks	Andrew Fifita – 4.0 Jack Bird – 3.2 Michael Gordon – 3.1 Wade Graham – 2.9 Valentine Holmes – 2.5	Greg Inglis – 4.5 Dylan Walker – 3.4 Bryson Goodwin – 2.7 Alex Johnston – 2.6 Issac Luke – 2.3
Line breaks	Valentine Holmes – 16 Sosaia Feki – 16	Alex Johnston – 20 Greg Inglis – 12 Dylan Walker – 10
Metres gained	Paul Gallen – 201 Andrew Fifita – 152 Wade Graham – 128	Greg Inglis – 128 Thomas Burgess – 127 George Burgess – 126
Tries scored	Valentine Holmes – 16 Luke Lewis – 11	Alex Johnston – 17 Dylan Walker – 17
Try assists	Michael Ennis – 14 Jeff Robson – 5 Jack Bird – 5	Greg Inglis – 12 Adam Reynolds – 8 Luke Keary – 7
Line break assists	Gerard Beale – 10 Michael Ennis – 10	Greg Inglis – 14 Luke Keary – 8

Andrew Fifita is back! While there are murmurs about a leg injury, he’ll play this game like a wild man. Averaging four line breaks and 152 metres before his suspension, I’m expecting him to cut loose.

Here’s a bizarre stat: have a look at the leading try assister for the Sharks. It’s none other than Michael Ennis. Halves Jack Bird and Jeff Robson combined have four fewer than the hooker. Surely the Sharks can’t be true contenders until their 6 and 7 can frequently lay on a try.

The Rabbitohs will be praying that Greg Inglis’ knee is okay. He is their leading attacking weapon in all but line breaks and tries scored. If he isn’t fully fit the Rabbitohs have no chance.

The danger men
As stated above, Andrew Fifita will hit this game with something to prove. The Rabbitohs will be up against it trying to stop him.

On the other side, Greg Inglis is a superstar. If he’s at his best – like he was against the Cowboys four rounds ago – he can lead his team to victory.

Who is going to win and why
Given all of the above stats, along with the absence of George Burgess and Issac Luke, as well as the injury cloud over Inglis, it is very hard to see the Bunnies winning this match. Probably the best thing they’ve got in their favour is that – as evidenced by their loss to Manly last week – the Sharks are experts at shooting themselves in the foot.

But I don’t think they will in this game.

Prediction
Sharks 13-plus

Historical data from The Rugby League Project.