The Melbourne Storm host the North Queensland Cowboys at AAMI Park in the NRL finals series to decide who makes it to ANZ Stadium for the grand final.
Here’s what the stats say about this crucial clash.
The History
Overall: This will be the 30th clash between these sides dating back to 1998. The Storm have won 20, the Cowboys nine.
Finals: These two sides have only met in a final once before. They played a semi-final at the SFS in 2005 with the Cowboys running out 26-16 winners on their way to the Grand Final against the Wests Tigers. Cam Smith and Cooper Cronk were playing for the Storm, Johnathon Thurston for the Cowboys.
The last ten: The Storm have won six of the last ten between these sides, including the 14-6 win here in round 25. However, the Cowboys won the previous two.
At this venue: This will be the fourth time the Storm will meet the Cowboys at this ground. The Storm have won two out of the three.
The Referees: Matt Cecchin has never officiated a match between these two sides. Ben Cummins has refereed three between the Storm and the Cowboys, including both games this year, in which the results were split.
Defence
Team Stats – average per game 2015
| Stat | Storm | Cowboys | Difference |
| Line breaks conceded | 3.0 (2nd) | 4.1 (7th) | +1.1 Cowboys |
| Missed tackles | 22.6 (1st) | 25.3 (4th) | +2.7 Cowboys |
| Tries conceded | 2.5 (2nd) | 3.1 (5th) | +0.6 Cowboys |
| Metres conceded | 1415 (9th) | 1357 (4th) | +58 Storm |
| Penalties conceded | 6.2 (6th) | 6.2 (5th) | equal |
If the Storm have any chance in this match it will be on the back of their defence. In their last five encounters they’ve conceded just eight tries. The Cowboys know how to score a try but even they have only managed four against the Storm this year.
With Cam Smith keeping the forward pack on task and Cooper Cronk barking his orders, Bellamy’s disciplined defensive line could just strangle the Cowboys like they did the Roosters.
Player Stats
| Stat | Storm | Cowboys |
| Tackles made | Cam Smith – 46
Kevin Proctor – 34 Jesse Bromwich – 33 Tohu Harris – 32 |
Ethan Lowe – 36
Gavin Cooper – 31 Matthew Scott – 29 |
| Missed tackles | Will Chambers – 2.2
Cooper Cronk – 1.7 |
Johnathan Thurston – 3.0
Ethan Lowe – 2.2 Michael Morgan – 2.1 Lachlan Coote – 2.1 |
| Penalties conceded | Cameron Smith – 26
Jesse Bromwich – 14 |
James Tamou – 16
Jake Granville – 15 Ethan Lowe – 15 |
| Errors | Marika Koroibete – 25
Will Chambers – 25 Blake Green – 18 |
Lachlan Coote – 29
Johnathan Thurston – 28 Michael Morgan – 20 |
The Storm’s game plan is based on no errors, kicking for field position, steely defence and then capitalising on opposition errors.
The Storm will be trying as hard as they can to force Thurston, Coote and Morgan into error and off their games. They’ll also be sending as much traffic as possible at Thurston’s spot in the defensive line and his three missed tackles a match.
Attack
Team Stats – average per game 2015
| Stat | Storm | Cowboys | Difference |
| Line breaks | 4.2 (10th) | 5 (2nd) | +0.8 Cowboys |
| Tackle breaks | 25.6 (11th) | 31 (2nd) | +5.4 Cowboys |
| Tries scored | 3.5 (7th) | 4.23 (1st) | +0.73 Cowboys |
| Metres made | 1418 (7th) | 1582 (1st) | +164 Cowboys |
| Penalties received | 6.6 (7th) | 6.7 (6th) | +0.1 Cowboys |
| Errors | 9.0 (1st) | 9.7 (7th) | +0.7 Cowboys |
The Cowboys have a distinct advantage in attacking stats across the board. However, as stated above, the Storm know how to choke the very best attacks with their incredibly disciplined game plan and defence.
However, can they stop the forward motion of the Cowboys pack? When Ben Hannant is coming off the bench the starting pack must be very good. Scott and Tamou are the benchmark for front row partners. Backed up by Taumololo, Lowe and Cooper – with a side of Bolton and Asiata thrown in – the Storm pack must be at their determined best if they are to prevail.
Player stats
| Stat | Storm | Cowboys |
| Tackle breaks | Cameron Munster – 5.6
Marika Koroibete – 3.5 |
Lachlan Coote – 3.5
Michael Morgan – 3.3 Jason Taumalolo – 3.1 Kane Linnett – 2.9 Kyle Feldt – 2.6 Johnathan Thurston – 2.2 |
| Line breaks | Marika Koroibete – 20
Cameron Munster – 11 Will Chambers – 10 Blake Green – 10 |
Michael Morgan – 19
Justin ONeill – 14 Lachlan Coote – 11 Jake Granville – 11 Kane Linnett – 11 |
| Metres gained | Cameron Munster -165
Marika Koroibete – 150 Jesse Bromwich – 149 |
Jason Taumalolo – 141
James Tamou – 133 Kane Linnett – 128 Lachlan Coote – 125 Matthew Scott – 125 |
| Tries scored | Marika Koroibete – 20
Cameron Munster – 11 Will Chambers – 10 Blake Green – 10 |
Antonio Winterstein – 16
Michael Morgan – 14 Justin O’Neill – 10 Jake Granville – 10 Kane Linnett – 10 |
| Try assists | Cooper Cronk -16
Blake Green – 9 |
Johnathan Thurston – 22
Lachlan Coote – 14 |
| Line break assists | Cooper Cronk – 12
Blake Green – 10 |
Johnathan Thurston – 18
Lachlan Coote – 15 |
Morgan’s return to form last week would have sent alarm bells ringing as he takes so much pressure off Thurston. Morgan’s six tackle breaks and three line breaks meant that Thurston could focus on guiding the team around the paddock far more than he has while Morgan was injured.
For the Storm their hopes rest heavily on Marika Koroibete recovering from his ankle injury. His 20 Tries this year have been the only consistent danger his side has had since Billy Slater was ruled out with injury.
The once deadly Storm attack has been the most toothless it has been for a decade in Slater’s absence. One bright spark of hope is the continuing great form of Cameron Munster. His tackle breaks, line breaks, tries scored and metres gained are showing great promise. However, the Storm need that promise realised right now.
When they score and when they concede
| Scored | 0-20 | 21-40 | 41-60 | 61-80 | Total |
| Cowboys | 18.35%
118 points / Avg 4.54 |
21.3%
137 points / Avg 5.27 |
19.6%
126 points / Avg 4.84 |
40.75%
262 points / Avg 10 |
643 |
| Storm | 28.63%
140 points / Avg 5.6 |
21.27%
104 points / Avg 4.16 |
25.7%
126 points / Avg 5 |
24.3%
119 points / Avg 4.76 |
489 |
| Conceded | 0-20 | 21-40 | 41-60 | 61-80 | Total |
| Cowboys | 30%
142 point / Avg 5.46 |
27%
128 points / Avg 4.9 |
22.5%
106 points / Avg 4 |
20.5%
97 points Avg 3.7 |
473 |
| Storm | 22.5%
88 points / Avg 3.5 |
30%
118 points / Avg 4.7 |
16.3%
64 points / Avg 2.56 |
31.2%
122 points / Avg 4.9 |
392 |
The Storm have three times this season run down eight point deficits to win. However, any time they have fallen behind more than eight points they have lost.
The scoring patterns above suggest that the Storm’s propensity for scoring early will take advantage of the Cowboys lax defence in the first 20 minutes. The Storm will want to build as big a lead as possible as the Cowboys have scored 40% of their points in the last 20 minutes of games, which is exactly when the Storm’s defence is at its worst.
The Cowboys have been superb at running down scores this year. Four times they’ve reeled in 12-point deficits to win. They’ve also run down 16, 18 and 24-point deficits to win games. They can come home with a very wet sail.
The Danger Men
As stated above, Michael Morgan’s return has added the missing spark to the Cowboys attack. Their superb spine of Granville, Thurston, Morgan and Coote will be given loads of room to operate behind Tamou and Scott.
Once more, Jason Taumololo could cut loose at any moment. Back in round four he caused havoc against the Storm running for 240 metres and breaking five tackles.
Cameron Munster is the danger man for the Storm. He has been getting better with each match and under the guidance of Cronk he could go on a try scoring frenzy.
Who is going to win and why
The Storm jagged a top four spot thanks to the Sharks choking against the Sea Eagles in round 26. They then made the most of it by knocking off the Roosters away in a brilliant piece of controlled footy.
It won’t be enough against the Cowboys. The Storm have lost their last two finals at this venue and I think the Cowboys will make it a third. You’ve got to score tries to win finals and the Storm average less than four. The Cowboys will score four plus tries. It is their time.
Prediction: Cowboys 1-12
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