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We have finally arrived at the last game of the season and for the first time two Queensland sides will fight it out for the title. So who has the edge? Here’s all the stats you need to know.
The History
Overall:
This will be the 43rd meeting of these two sides since 1995. It stands at Brisbane 29, Cowboys 11 and two draws. The Cowboys didn’t beat the Broncos until their 17th encounter in 2004, the season before Johnathan Thurston arrived. The record stands at just 12-11 to the Broncos since then.
Finals:
This will be the fifth finals match between the two sides. However, it is the first to be played outside of Queensland. The Broncos won the last finals match three weeks ago 16-12 at Suncorp. The Cowboys had won all three of the finals matches they’d played against the Broncos before that point.
The last was their 32-20 elimination of the eighth placed Broncos in week 1 of the finals last year.
The last ten:
The Cowboys have beaten the Broncos five times out of the last ten matches.
At this venue:
These two sides have never met at this venue.
The Broncos have played 20 games at ANZ Stadium since 1999. They have won 11 of them, including the 2000 and 2006 grand finals. This season the Broncos have only played here once. That was against the Bulldogs in Round 18 where they ran out 16-8 winners.
The Cowboys have also played 20 games at ANZ Stadium since 2000. They’ve only won seven of those. However, they have won the last three that they’ve played here, including the 30-12 win over the Rabbitohs in Round 6. The last final they played here was the 2005 grand final loss to the Wests Tigers. The 2006 decider was the last finals match that the Broncos played at this ground.
Referees:
Cummins and Gerard Sutton together have controlled two games between these teams: the 2014 qualifying final that the Cowboys won and Round 22, 2010 that the Broncos won 34-26. Both games were in Townsville.
This is the 10th match that Gerard Sutton has officiated between these two sides. Brisbane has won five of them, including the 44-22 win in Round 3 this year and the 16-12 win in week one of the finals.
This is the seventh match that Ben Cummins has officiated between these sides. The last was the qualifying final in Townsville in 2014 that the Cowboys won 32-20.
Gerard Sutton has officiated 28 Broncos games all up since 2009. The Broncos have won 12 of them (43%).
He has controlled 34 Cowboys games over the same period. The Cowboys have won 14 of them (41%).
Cummins has controlled 36 Broncos games. The Broncos have won 23 of them (64%).
Ben Cummins has officiated 33 Cowboys games since 2006. The Cowboys have won 15 of them (45.5%).
Grand final experience
Actually having played in a grand final before makes a huge difference to how you cope with the game. As much as players will say, “we are going to treat it like any other game,” the truth is that it isn’t. Phil Gould once said that it takes 20 minutes to feel part of a grand final – and by that point it may already be lost.
The Broncos have five players taking the field that have grand final experience, the Cowboys four.
|
Broncos |
Cowboys |
| Adam Blair: Melbourne in 2006 (lost), Melbourne in 2008 (lost), Melbourne in 2009 (won)
Darius Boyd: Brisbane in 2006 (won), St George Illawarra in 2010 (won) Justin Hodges: Roosters in 2002 (won), Roosters in 2004 (lost), Broncos in 2006 (won) Corey Parker: Broncos in 2006 (won) Sam Thaiday: Broncos in 2006 (won) |
Ben Hannant: Broncos in 2006 (won) Kane Linnett: Roosters in 2010 (lost) Justin O’Neill: Storm in 2012 (won) Johnathan Thurston: Bulldogs in 2004 (won), Cowboys in 2005 (lost), |
| A total of ten games of Grand Final experience with a 70% success rate. | A total of five games of Grand Final experience with a 60% success rate. |
– Johnathan Thurston is the only player with more than one appearance in a grand final for the Cowboys.
– Of all 15 games of grand final experience that will take the park, only three of them (Kane Linnett in 2010, Darius Boyd in 2010 and Justin O’Neill in 2012) were in this decade.
– 40 per cent of all the experience comes from just one game: Storm Vs Broncos in 2006.
– There are six veterans of the 2006 grand final who will be playing in this game. All but one – Adam Blair – was from the victorious Broncos side – and he is now playing for the Broncos.
Basically, the Broncos have more grand final experience in their ranks but the Cowboys experience is more recent.
Team ages
The age profile of both the sides is almost identical.
– Both have an average age of 26. Cowboys total age is 446, the Broncos 443.
– Both have a median age of 26.
– The Broncos have the oldest player in Corey Parker and the youngest player in Corey Oates. They have been rooming together in the lead up to the grand final.
– The Broncos have three players who are over 30: Parker, Sam Thaiday and Justin Hodges.
– The Cowboys have four players who are over 30 in Thurston, Matt Scott, Gavin Cooper and Ben Hannant)
Defence
Team Stats – average per game 2015
|
Stat |
Broncos |
Cowboys |
Difference |
| Line breaks conceded | 3.5 (3rd) |
4.4 (8th) |
+0.9 Cowboys |
| Missed tackles | 24.7 (3rd) |
26.1 (7th) |
+1.4 Cowboys |
| Tries conceded | 2.7 (3rd) |
3.3 (6th) |
+0.6 Cowboys |
| Meters conceded | 1487 (15th) |
1380 (7th) |
+107 Broncos |
| Penalties conceded | 4.8 (1st) |
6.4 (8th) |
+1.6 Cowboys |
| Errors | 9.6 (6th) |
10.2 (8th) |
+0.6 Cowboys |
The Broncos are better in almost every defensive stat. Uncle Wayne has returned and brought with him the secret to steely defence. The only defensive stat that the Broncos lose out on is metres conceded. The Broncos have been poor in that stat all year and it hasn’t seemed to have hurt them too much at all. However, the Cowboys aren’t too far behind the Broncos defensively.
Player Stats
|
Stat |
Broncos |
Cowboys |
| Tackles made | Andrew McCullough – 49
Matt Gillett – 40 Corey Parker – 34 Sam Thaiday -31 |
Ethan Lowe – 36
Gavin Cooper – 31 Matthew Scott – 29 |
| Missed tackles | Ben Hunt – 3.7
Matt Gillett – 2.7 Alex Glenn – 2.3 Anthony Milford – 2.1 Jack Reed – 2.1 |
Johnathan Thurston – 2.9
Ethan Lowe – 2.2 Lachlan Coote – 2.1 Michael Morgan – 2.0 |
| Penalties conceded | Andrew McCullough – 13
Anthony Milford – 12 Adam Blair – 12 |
James Tamou – 16
Ethan Lowe – 16 |
| Errors | Anthony Milford – 42 (#1 NRL) Corey Oates – 21 Matt Gillett – 19 |
Lachlan Coote – 32
Johnathan Thurston – 29 Michael Morgan – 22 |
Both number sevens miss lots of tackles. Ben Hunt in particular has issues although he has played so well this year. Can he have a big game defensively in this one? If he does it will go a long way towards winning the game for his side.
You can bet that Gavin Cooper and Jason Taumalolo will be searching him out, with their leader trying to get them one on one with the Broncos half back.
The Broncs will run at Johnathan Thurston to try and blunt him, while at the same time trying to break the line. The Cowboys brains trust will surely have noticed Jack Reed’s defensive struggles this year. While getting beaten by Blake Ferguson isn’t a disgrace by any means, Linnett will have seen how it was done and will try it on.
In the 2012 Under 20s Grand Final between the Canberra Raiders and the Wests Tigers, Anthony Milford was the wunderkind and was expected to be the big danger. It didn’t eventuate. He had a shocker, making bad decisions, trying to do too much and making lots of errors.
My bet is he’ll have thought about that a few times this week. He is the number one error maker in the NRL this year. He has to be good in this game or the Cowboys will take full advantage.
Attack
Team Stats – average per game 2015
|
Stat |
Broncos |
Cowboys |
Difference |
| Line breaks |
4.9 (3rd) |
5 (2nd) |
+0.1 Cowboys |
| Tackle breaks |
29.3 (5th) |
31 (2nd) |
+1.7 Cowboys |
| Tries scored |
4.11 (3rd) |
4.3 (1st) |
+0.19 Cowboys |
| Meters made |
1454 (3rd) |
1585 (1st) |
+131 Cowboys |
| Penalties received |
5.7 (14th) |
6.8 (5th) |
+1.1 Cowboys |
While the Broncos might be better in most defensive stats, the Cowboys are better in all of the attacking stats – but not by very much. They make 131 more metres a game than the Broncos, taking their total advantage to 238 per match. However, the Broncs have scored almost as many tries in one fewer game, and their line breaks and tackle breaks are almost identical.
Player Stats
|
Stat |
Broncos |
Cowboys |
| Tackle breaks | Anthony Milford – 3.7
Justin Hodges – 2.8 Corey Oates – 2.6 Corey Parker – 2.5 |
Lachlan Coote – 3.5
Michael Morgan – 3.2 Kane Linnett – 2.8 Kyle Feldt – 2.9 Johnathan Thurston – 2.3 Antonio Winterstein – 2.3 |
| Line breaks | Anthony Milford – 15
Jack Reed – 14 Corey Oates – 13 Jordan Kahu – 11 Ben Hunt – 10 |
Michael Morgan – 22
Justin ONeill – 16 Kane Linnett – 13 Jake Granville – 11 |
| Metres gained | Corey Parker – 126
Darius Boyd – 124 Alex Glenn – 109 Justin Hodges – 102 Anthony Milford – 102 |
Jason Taumalolo – 142
James Tamou – 133 Kane Linnett – 127 Matthew Scott – 127 |
| Tries scored | Corey Oates – 13
Anthony Milford – 13 Ben Hunt – 12 |
Antonio Winterstein – 16
Michael Morgan – 15 Justin O’Neill – 12 Jake Granville – 10 Kane Linnett – 10 |
| Try assists | Ben Hunt – 18 Anthony Milford – 17 Justin Hodges – 9 Darius Boyd – 9 |
Johnathan Thurston – 29
Lachlan Coote – 15 Michael Morgan – 10 |
| Line break assists | Anthony Milford – 16
Ben Hunt – 14 Justin Hodges – 10 Darius Boyd -10 |
Johnathan Thurston – 25
Lachlan Coote – 17 Michael Morgan – 9 |
Both these sides know how to attack. After Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Milford, Lachlan Coote and Michael Morgan are three of the best tackle-breaking and line-breaking players in the game.
Anthony Milford holds such a key to this game. If his defence holds and he keeps his errors down he might just find his finest explosive confidence. If that is unleashed the Cowboys will struggle to stay in touch.
The Cowboys can come home with the wettest of sails though. I always ranked Peter Sterling as the best of the halfbacks I’ve watched (yes, better than Johns), but Johnathan Thurston has now eclipsed him. If he can win this match it will be his crowning glory. His 29 try assists and 25 line break assists make him easily the most deadly playmaker in the NRL.
He will not die wondering in this match. However, the plays have to come off. They made 14 errors the last time they played the Broncs and it cost them the game, even though it was Morgan’s first game back from a long lay off. The Cowboys five-eighth is now right back to his attacking best.
The other big factor could be up front. James Tamou, Scott and Hannant for mine are way too good for Blair, Thaiday and Mitch Dodds. The last time the two sides met the Cowboys made almost 400 more metres but they still lost.
When they score and when they concede
| Period |
0-20 |
21-40 |
41-60 |
61-80 |
Total |
| Broncos Scored |
26.25% 164 points / Avg 6.3 |
24% |
24.25% 152 points / Avg 5.8 |
25.5% 159 points / Avg 6.1 |
625 |
| Cowboys Conceded |
31% 148 point / Avg 5.5 |
27% 134points / Avg 5 |
22% 106 points / Avg 4 |
20% 97 points Avg 3.7 |
485 |
The red alert for the Cowboys is the first half. That is when they have conceded 58 per cent of their points this year. In particular, the Broncos are at their most prolific in the first 20 minutes. The Cowboys must be resolute in defence from the outset or the game might be gone by half time. If they can keep it close, their defence in the second half is much better.
| Period |
0-20 |
21-40 |
41-60 |
61-80 |
Total |
| Cowboys Scored |
18% 122 points / Avg 4.5 |
22% 149 points / Avg 5.5 |
20% 136 points / Avg 5 |
40% 268 points / Avg 10 |
675 |
| Broncos conceded |
12.75% 52 points / Avg 2 |
35.75% 144 points / Avg 5.28 |
30% 124 points / Avg 4.75 |
21.5% 88 points / Avg 3.52 |
408 |
The reason the Cowboys defence is much better in the second half is because they score 60 per cent of their points in the second stanza, in particular the last 20 minutes when they score most of their points. If the Broncos don’t have a good lead then they might be run down by the Cowboy stampede.
However, the Broncos main problem periods are the end of the first half and the beginning of the second: 65.75% of the points they concede are in that area.
No one at home
I’ll let the last statistical word go to the away records. As we’ve seen above, ANZ Stadium is an away ground for both of them. While there is certain to be a fair few Broncos fans at the ground, lots of the crowd is sure to be behind the Cowboys to balance that out. It is only reasonable that the most relevant statistic is how both sides have fared away from their home ground this season.
|
Broncos Away record 2015 |
Cowboys away record 2015 |
|
| Overall | 8 Wins, 4 losses, 66% | 10 wins, 4 losses, 71% |
| Against final 8 | 4 wins, 3 losses (57%) | 3 wins, 4 losses (43%) |
| Points for | Overall: 246, Average 20.5 points a game
Vs Top 8: 127, Average 18 points a game |
Overall: 339, Average 24 points a game
Vs Top 8: 138, Average 20 points a game |
| Points against | Overall: 195, Average 16 points a game
Vs Top 8: 89, Average 13 points a game |
Overall: 252, Average 18 points a game
Vs Top 8: 140, Average 20 points a game |
Prediction: So far this finals I’ve only got two results wrong, both were the Broncos. So statistically I’ve only got a 25 per cent chance of getting it right.
So I’ll let the stats pick it for me and go with the statistically predicted score: Broncos 19, Cowboys 16 – or Broncos 1-12 if you prefer.