Last season Wellington were tipped to be scrapping around the bottom of the A-League, yet Ernie Merrick’s side spent the majority of the campaign in the top four.
This season, it is the same story – the Phoenix are expected to regress.
For a manager of Merrick’s ilk the predictions are a bit of an insult. As the most successful coach in the A-League’s history, the Scot (let’s refrain from calling him wily) deserves more credit.
He has transformed Wellington in two seasons from a long-ball team to one with more fluency and flexibility. Coupled with the renewed tactics, and great work off the field, there have been some impressive signings as well.
The squad from last year largely remains, though much has been made about the departure of 2014-15 Johnny Warren Medallist Nathan Burns, who scored 13 goals last season. Yet Wellington were not a one-man team, and a return to the finals should be expected.
Strengths
The midfield trio of Roly Bonevacia, Albert Riera and Alex Rodriguez have had another pre-season to get accustomed to each other, and should give Wellington a strong base to push into the final third.
Bonevacia in particular will be looking to increase his attacking influence, while Riera is one of Wellington’s key players, screening the back four. Throw in Michael McGlinchey, who was instrumental last season in an advanced role, and the Phoenix are still a dangerous unit.
Weaknesses
The lack of depth in this squad is the biggest worry, there are a few promising youngsters but none of whom have suggested they can step into the first team. One or two injuries, in any section of the pitch, and Wellington will be scrambling.
Their backline is also ageing with Andrew Durante (33), Ben Sigmund (34) and Manny Muscat (30) lacking any kind of pace. Nippy opposition forwards will be able to cause problems, though the experience and familiarity is a at least a positive.
Big question: Can they cope without Nathan Burns?
The 27-year-old reinvigorated his career in Wellington, earning himself a deserved Socceroos call-up and a move to FC Tokyo. In the Socceroos camp, he has moved up to another level.
Phoenix were far from a one-man team, however, and of the 13 goals Burns scored in 20 appearances, all but three arrived in the first 11 games. The Phoenix only lost one game when Burns was missing from the squad – a 3-0 loss to Sydney FC. They defeated Adelaide United, Perth Glory and Brisbane Roar without him.
People also forget that Burns was in a complete rut before arriving at Wellington, his teammates and Merrick’s system helped him return to his best.
Jeffrey Sarpong arrives with extensive experience in the Eredivisie as a winger, and Merrick has hinted at attempting to turn the 27-year-old into more of a marksman. The goals could arrive from another wide player to help fill the Burns hole, however.
Andrew Durante will lead the Phoenix in the A-League’s 11th season. (Image: AFP Photo/Marty Melville)
Key man: Roy Krishna
Krishna proved just as valuable as Burns for the Phoenix last season, having adapted well to the A-League as a late bloomer. The Fijian will be burdened with a lot more responsibility this campaign, but he has the ability to deliver.
A more central role may be handed to him this season. It will be interesting to see if Merrick sticks with 4-3-3, McGlinchey retaining the No.9 role, or whether the Scot opts for a 4-4-2 diamond with Krishna and Sarpong up front.
Either way Krishna will be crucial in both setups, and another return of nine goals would be a fantastic contribution.
Youngster to watch: Kwabena Appiah
He has the pace, no doubt, but does he have the quality? The 22-year-old appeared tactically naive when he played for the Western Sydney Wanderers, predominantly in the Asian Champions League. But he also caused defenders plenty of problems with his unpredictability.
Merrick’s system may suit Appiah’s strengths more than Tony Popovic’s and he has been scoring a few goals in pre-season, albeit against weaker opposition. If Merrick can get the best out of Appiah, it could produce another dimension to the Phoenix attack.
Position last season: Fourth
The club achieved its equal best finish in the A-League, surprising many who thought they would finish much closer to the wooden spoon. Yet they disappointed in the elimination final, limping out meekly to Melbourne City 2-0.
Prediction: Finals
There is no indication that this club will go backwards. Burns is a loss, but they still have the relevant stocks to continue their progression. Merrick will ensure a finals place, barring any major injury crisis.
First five fixtures
Newcastle Jets (H), Perth Glory (A), Brisbane Roar (H), Melbourne Victory (A), Central Coast (A).
Possible line-up (4-4-2 diamond)
Krishna, Sarpong
McGlinchey
Bonevacia, Rodriguez
Riera
Muscat, Durante, Sigmund, Fenton
Moss
Ins
Blake Powell (APIA Leichhardt), Jeffrey Sarpong (free transfer), Troy Danaskos (Sydney Olympic).
Outs
Nathan Burns (FC Tokyo), Michael Boxall (SuperSport United), Jason Hicks (released), Josh Brindall-South (released), Kenny Cunningham (released), Tyler Boyd (Vitoria Guimaraes).
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