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An apology may be in order for my prediction in last week’s column. With the eye of a previewer and with no immediate evidence to go on, a 2-1 series victory for the Australians felt like the right way to go.
Australia, regardless of the changes made, had the formidable record of the Gabba in their favour and the fact that they are rarely beaten on home soil.
New Zealand could lean on a settled group of players with an effectively combative method that has produced some eye-catching results in recent times.
It all pointed towards positive results and an educated guess as to who would claim the lion’s share.
Well, after seeing what was served up in Brisbane over the five days, I’m sorry to anybody who was offended by my prediction of the Kiwis winning one of the three Tests.
With a toothless bowling attack Brendon McCullum’s side barely came second, and if Tim Southee is forced to miss the game in Perth then it is hard to see how they will get back on level terms.
They didn’t disgrace themselves with the bat and Kane Williamson was outstanding – he is the real deal – but they’ll need to post far more substantial totals if they are to have any chance.
If I was an Australian supporter, the one area of concern prior to the series would’ve been the top order.
There was a raw opener, a number three who had rarely convinced in limited opportunities at the top level, a number six who looked anything but in England, and a wicketkeeper-batsman trying to fill the shoes of a successful predecessor.
That constituted a wall with holes to exploit, but what transpired made a mockery of such worries.
Joe Burns looked at home, Usman Khawaja lived up to the promise many have been convinced he had, and the other two weren’t required to do anything of note which tells you all you need to know.
The fact the New Zealand attack were unable to make any inroads or offer much in the way of control will be a major head-scratcher as the sides head west to compete on a pitch similar to the one gone before.
Trent Boult looked off the pace, Doug Bracewell the same, and spinner Mark Craig wasn’t even given the time of day by his opponents, who viewed him as average-boosting cannon fodder.
Only Southee was able to threaten, but one man will not win a game on his own on a surface such as the Gabba. Bowl as a team or get blown away.
The excuse of being undercooked could be put forward but this is international cricket in 2015, with preparation time in short supply, so it really is a case of finding a way or take your chances.
And while I’m not really a fan of the term ‘momentum’ in a sporting context – the vanquished bounce back on plenty of occasions – the home side will be buoyed by their initial efforts.
The last thing they will have wanted was for questions to remain over the identity of David Warner’s opening partner or who should replace Michael Clarke in the middle order, and for the immediate future these have been answered.
And for all the troubles experienced on the alien pitches at Edgbaston and Trent Bridge, it was unlikely the same would be produced in more familiar surroundings. Home advantage has never been more pronounced as it is at this moment in time, the past week or so merely emphasising the fact.
New Zealand, England and South Africa have been thumped overseas and nobody batted an eyelid, regardless of the strength of the respective sides or their recent records.
With the calendar the way it is, there isn’t much that can be done, with the longer tours of years gone by consigned to the history books unless an individual country wants to buck the trend.
It means overseas victories should be treasured even more because, like an honest FIFA official, they are extremely rare.
Just don’t expect New Zealand to have anything to shout about by the end of the month.