After reading Connar Olsen’s forecast for the 2016 AFL ladder on The Roar, I decided to have a look myself.
While I agreed with Connar in some areas, there were some predictions I disagreed with.
First: Fremantle
It is hard to say it but with the only major losses being Luke McPharlin and Paul Duffield, with Harley Bennell incoming, Fremantle will again be at the top of the ladder. I would love to seen them out of the top eight, but only a crazy person would think that.
Second: Hawthorn
As a Hawks fan I’m a bit biased, but the Hawks will play their heart out. It will most likely be the last season for the likes of Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne and maybe Josh Gibson and Sam Mitchell.
Third: West Coast
The Eagles look to emulate the Hawks of 2007-08 as a young and hungry group. They will be hard to beat and will be better than last season after the 2015 grand final experience. With the return of some of the injured players they lost during 2015 they will come back strong and challenge all sides that come up against them.
Forth: Richmond
A lot of people will think I’m nuts to think the Tigers will make the top four, but they have shown over the last three to four seasons that they are one of the top sides in the competition.
With leaders like Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and Alex Rance across the field they also have good players around them like Dustin Martin, Bachar Houli and Kamdyn McIntosh. They will be a dangerous side and should at least win one game in the finals series, if not two.
Fifth: North Melbourne
I was one of the people that wrote off North, but over the last few years they have proven that you are crazy to underestimate them. They should make it into the eight with ease and could upset some of the top teams in the finals.
Sixth: Greater Western Sydney
The only reason that they did not make the finals in 2015 was because of injuries to key players such as Joel Patfull, Shane Mumford, Stephen Coniglio and Phil Davis. This killed their chances to make the finals in 2015. A fully fit group should see finals football delivered to Western Sydney.
(All of the above teams will make the finals with no problems, however the positions between seventh and 12th will be very close.)
Seventh: Port Adelaide
They had a hard season in 2015 with injuries. The other problem for Port is that a lot of teams have worked out their playing style and have been able to adapt to their gameplan. They will win easy against the lower sides but could find it hard against the tops teams.
Eighth: Geelong
Why do I think Geelong? They have not used all their nine lives up yet. With the talent they have in Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Josh Caddy, Nakia Cockatoo and Steven Motlop, they have one of the most dangerous midfield rosters. That midfield will run over a lot of the less experienced teams.
Ninth: Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have shown great talent over 2015 but most teams will not underestimate them as much as they did this season.
10th: Sydney
I’m waiting for the backlash, but they have lost too much talent over the off-season, with Adam Goodes, Lewis Jetta, and Mike Pyke departing. That is too much talent in one hit and it will take some time to get themselves right.
The other thing is Lance Franklin. If he is still not 100 per cent he will not be at his best and it could take most of next season for his to reach previous levels. Hopefully he is given the support needed to get back to 100 per cent.
11th: Collingwood
Collingwood’s young players still need a bit of time to develop and need to be able to run out a season. They are not a top eight team this year, however it could be a different story in 2017.
12th: Adelaide
Adelaide had one of the hardest seasons in the history of AFL, and 2016 will not be their year with a new coach and the lose of Dangerfield. Like Collingwood, however, 2017 could well be their season to make a strong attack on the top eight again.
13th: St Kilda
The Saints are still rebuilding but will still be able to upset some of the teams that underestimate them. They have filled the necessary gaps and now just need to get some consistency back into their game.
14th: Gold Coast
I’m still not convinced that they have the right team chemistry, and they need another season or two to get it right.
15th: Melbourne
Melbourne have the players and the team to play well but need to play consistent football week in, week out. I don’t see them doing that next season.
16th: Carlton
With a new-look squad and perhaps a coach, Carlton could finish bottom in 2016. They still need work but have at least started making the hard decisions. I can see them winning a few games next year but it is still a long way to go for them.
17th: Lions
They may have fixed some of the holes from 2015, but if they keep losing young talent then they will remain at the bottom of the ladder. This is not their fault, but it is too easy for players to play the ‘I’m home sick’ card. It is hurting the Lions.
Wooden Spoon: Essendon
There is a lot of work to be done over there in Bomberland and it is not going to happen overnight. It will happen eventually, just not next season.
Week 1
Qualifying final 1: Fremantle def Richmond
Qualifying final 2: Hawthorn def West Coast
Elimination final 1: North Melbourne def Geelong
Elimination final 2: Greater Western Sydney def Port Adelaide
Week 2
Semi-final 1: Richmond def Greater Western Sydney
Semi-final 2: West Coast def North Melbourne
Week 3
Preliminary final 1: Hawthorn def Richmond
Preliminary final 2: Fremantle def by West Coast
Week 4
Grand final: West Coast def Hawthorn (That Hurts to Say)
Awards
Brownlow Medal: Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) or Trent Cotchin (Richmond)
Coleman Medal: Jeremy Cameron (GWS)
Norm Smith Medal: Andrew Gaff (West Coast)
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