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What is the best way to think about North Melbourne?
Are they a consecutive preliminary finalist with a mature, experienced list ready to strike at the pointy end of September? Or are they middle-of-the-road plodders that have gotten lucky in finals?
In the last two years under Brad Scott, North have ended the home-and-away rounds eighth (2015) and sixth (2014) on the ladder. In his previous four seasons at the helm, going backwards in order, the Roos finished tenth, eighth, ninth and ninth.
That’s not a whole lot of movement over the course of six years.
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In 2014, North were six goals down in the third quarter of their elimination final against Essendon before miraculously turning it around, the sort of margin that is rarely overcome. The next week they were fortunate enough to play a Geelong side that was almost down for the count after eight consecutive years in the finals. The Cats’ 2015 was proof enough of that.
North were then manhandled when they eventually came up against a real team in the preliminary final, the Swans belting them by 12 goals, continuing a long tradition at the Roos of being humiliated in finals.
In 2015, North infamously rested an army of players and threw their Round 23 match against Richmond, to manipulate the finals draw so they could play against the Tigers the next week. The bonus? The Roos had beaten Richmond at their last six encounters. They couldn’t have hand-picked a better scenario or the team to play against if they were writing the story themselves.
The following week North lucked out again, matching up against a Sydney Swans team that had nothing left to give, and missing the likes of Buddy Franklin, Luke Parker, Kieren Jack and Sam Reid.
To the Roos’ credit, they gave West Coast more than a fright in Perth to lose out in a preliminary again, arguably their most meritorious performance in a finals match under Scott.
To the side that played in that preliminary final last year, but also the team that finished eighth on the ladder, remember, North will now add Daniel Wells and potentially Jed Anderson.
Let’s have a look at how they might configure:
| B: | Sam Wright | Scott Thompson | Lachie Hansen | |
| HB: | Shaun Atley | Robbie Tarrant | Jamie MacMillan | |
| C: | Nick Dal Santo | Ben Cunnington | Sam Gibson | |
| HF: | Shaun Higgins | Jarrad Waite | Daniel Wells | |
| F: | Brent Harvey | Drew Petrie | Lindsay Thomas | |
| Foll: | Todd Goldstein | Jack Ziebell | Andrew Swallow | |
| Int: | Ben Brown | Ben Jacobs | Jed Anderson | Taylor Garner |
| Emerg: | Kayne Turner | Luke McDonald | Michael Firrito |
The North backline is a meat-and-potatoes lot, fully of either good ordinary players or a touch better than that. The Roos conceded the seventh most points in the home-and-away rounds last year. The six teams ranked below them all filled the bottom six spots on the ladder. It’s hardly premiership material.
Scott Thompson doesn’t appear to be the force he was. Robbie Tarrant played some decent footy last year, but has his limitations.
Lachie Hansen is one of the best judges of an intercept mark in the league but still has too many low output games. He is also one of those players that is prone to doing the wrong thing at the most calamitous time, be it punching instead of marking, kicking on the full or into the man on the mark.
Of the running defenders, Jamie MacMillan and Sam Wright have overtaken Shaun Atley as the prime rebounders. MacMillan was able to take his game to a new level after an injury-hit 2014. Wright plays his back pocket not as a lockdown role, but running to create. If Atley has improved as a player over the last four years, it’s been bare.
Atley will be under pressure for his spot from Luke McDonald and the veteran Michael Firrito, and Trent Dumont looked OK in his chances last year, so North’s defensive depth is good. Kangaroo supporters will be disappointed if McDonald can’t make a position his own this year.
The core of the North midfield has been around for a while now, and they are all known quantities. It doesn’t exactly scream ‘top four midfield’, which is probably why they can never finish there across a 22 round season.
Ben Cunnington is the classic inside player with kicking issues, but his work is always solid at worst. It’s something of a surprise to not see him in the North leadership group. Jack Ziebell still can’t win enough of the ball to be considered a top-line midfielder, or anywhere near it for that matter. If he can’t lift his possession rate then he needs to become a 30-goal a year player when resting forward.
Andrew Swallow is the third of the triumvirate of inside North mids, and while probably not quite the player he was, is still extremely effective with his bullocking. No doubt Gandalf’s “You shall not pass” is his favourite line from Lord of the Rings.
Sam Gibson started doing some outside tagging roles towards the back end of the year, and can be effective if that continues. Ben Jacobs is the hard-tag specialist, memorably keeping Trent Cotchin to single figure touches in last year’s elimination final. Nick Dal Santo is aging, but still all quality when delivering the ball.
Todd Goldstein elevated himself to become the dominant ruckman in the game last season, and he can be relied upon to deliver again. It’s a wonderful sight to see a big man completely control games the way he did last year.
The North forward line looks a dangerous mix of talls and smalls.
Jarrad Waite is still erratic, but match-winning on his day. Drew Petrie continues to hang on, but appears the sort of player that could drop off a cliff. Ben Brown’s output was roughly the same in his second year as his first, so he might make a leap. His hands are an asset, but they deserted him in finals last September.
Shaun Higgins seems to have become the dynamic player many thought he would, finally fulfilling his potential. Brent Harvey keeps on keeping on, and is still a player opposition clubs will send a minder to. Lindsay Thomas wasn’t as influential in 2015 as he had been in previous seasons, and will need to bounce back.
North fans are rightly excited about the return of Wells, and he can elevate his side with his run and skill, especially considering that his team can lack in both areas.
Jed Anderson, Taylor Garner and Kayne Turner will be fighting for the extra spots. Turner is a terrier and Kangaroo supporters love his attitude and pressure, but Garner, also as hard as a cat’s head, appears to have the inside running at this stage.
If North really want to challenge, and improve from a middling side, they’ll need the likes of Ziebell, Tarrant, MacMillan and Atley to make a quantum leap of improvement, similar to what Todd Goldstein did from mid-2014 to last year. McDonald, Garner, Turner and Dumont need to be demanding selection and taking their opportunities when they get them.
The preliminary finals can be seen as a deception of North’s true position in the competition, but their ladder position in the six years under Brad Scott says they have done nothing but tread water.
They have the oldest list coming into 2016, and the toughest draw. Potential finalists again? Sure. Premiership threat? No thanks.
Predicted ladder spread: 7th-12th
Predicted finish: 11th
Best and fairest: Todd Goldstein
Leading goalkicker: Lindsay Thomas
All-Australian potential: Todd Goldstein, Shaun Higgins
Rising Star candidates: Trent Dumont
Current ladder
North Melbourne – 11th
Melbourne – 12th
Gold Coast – 13th
Port Adelaide – 14th
St Kilda – 15th
Brisbane – 16th
Carlton – 17th
Essendon – 18th