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Jimmy's best AFL bets - Round 7

Have the Magpies turned a corner? (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Roar Pro
5th May, 2016
1

Travis Cloke continues the play in the Magoo’s, Ivan Maric has been given the chop and Lindsey Thomas will sit after being targeted for his sins of the past (what a load of BS).

Here are the best bets for this week of the AFL footy.

Richmond versus Hawthorn
If you thought things couldn’t get worse for the Tigers after last week’s 94-59 upset loss to the Power, they can. The bright lights of Friday night football shine once again on the Tigers (4th time this year, enough already), and those lights just keep getting brighter, and hotter.

Up against the $1.19 favourite Hawks with a point to prove, the $5.00 Tigers will likely walk away from this one 2-5, and thus begins the… rebuild?

This one could go a couple of ways, either the Tigers are going to come out with a full head of steam and take it to a Hawthorn team that has been ‘just getting it done’, or they will feel the burn of the Friday lights and walk away with another loss, and a thousand more headlines.

This time around there will be no Trent Cotchin (jaw) to elbow Sam Mitchell in the back before the first bounce to get things fired up, as happened last time out in Round 18 last year, when the Tigers got over the eventual premiers 71-53.

With Alex Rance (suspension), and Cotchin sitting, it will take something special from the Tigers here to cause an upset, and there is nothing special about this Richmond outfit that we can see. The Hawks should break the -34.5 point line, bucking their trend of close wins in 2016.

Ben Griffiths comes in for the dropped Ivan Maric.

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Best Bet: Hawthorn – 24.5 @1.55

Feeling Lucky: Hawthorn 40+ @2.05

Collingwood versus Carlton
Unless you are invested in either team with money or heart, this one won’t be worth watching. Not such a blockbuster this time around, with both sitting with a record of 2-4, with the WAG’s already planning their September couples holidays.

Collingwood come in as $1.57 favourites, with the Blues at $2.45. The Pies have come out a little from the $1.35 we saw on Thursday morning, which is good because there was no way in hell we were taking anything less than $1.50.

Jesse White comes in for Travis Cloke, who continues to line up in the Magoo’s. Surely there is more to the story here, because Jesse White takes no man’s spot, unless there is more to the story than form. Our thinking is that Cloke has let it slip that his intentions lie elsewhere in 2017, making the trip to the twos a frequent occurrence for him in 2016.

The Pies have won their last six in this match-up by an average of 33 points, but the Blues would be confident of an upset here against a Collingwood side that is currently 14th in the league for inside 50’s per game, with a lowly 48.3 entries (but don’t get too excited, the Blues are 13th with 50.7).

This shouldn’t be a blowout, and looks to be a low scoring, scrappy affair. In saying this, the 1-39 @2.20 for the Pies looks nice, with a line around -16.5 for Eddie’s boys.

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Best Bet: Collingwood WIN @1.60

Feeling Lucky: Collingwood 1-39 @2.20

Geelong versus West Coast
The Cats are up and about, and are looking to make it five straight after pantsing Gold Coast last weekend to the tune of 120 points. The Eagles haven’t won outside of Perth in their last five attempts, with four losses and a draw, inclusive of last year’s grand final.

Last time out, the Eagles took this match-up 120-64 at Domain Stadium. The Cats come in here at a firm $1.52, with the Eagles at $2.60. This is to be expected, as the Cats are always pretty short at Simmonds, which is basically an interstate trip for any Victorian club.

Geelong (17.3) and West Coast (15.7) rank #1 and #2 for marks inside 50, while coming in the same positions for contested marks, Geelong (14.2) and West Coast (14).

Josh Kennedy will play his 150th after coming over from Carlton in the Chris Judd trade back in 2008, we are pretty sure he sleeps well at night with that outcome.

The tall forwards of Jack Darling (17 goals) and Kennedy (17 goals) will be looking to continue their 2016 form, while up the other end Tom Hawkins (14 goals) will be confident that the Cats midfield will continue a flood of delivery his way.

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The line of -11.5 in favour of the Cats is looking very nice with the Eagles away form a little shaky. Not too confident on the Margin bets however, even without a blowout likely on the cards.

Geelong should get over the line here, with Priddis most possessions @5.00 worth a cheeky punt.

Best Bet: Geelong WIN @1.57

Feeling Lucky: Geelong -11.5 @1.91

Sydney versus Essendon
The Bombers head to Sydney as $19.00 underdogs, and will return to Melbourne with two things, a 40+ point loss (being very conservative here), and some valuable lessons from a first class AFL outfit.

Last time out this was a grind, with the Swannies eventually getting over the line 72-60 at ANZ Stadium. The Bombers were actually leading by 34 points at three-quarter-time, until they became spectators as Sydney piled on seven majors to nothing in the last.

The midfield match-ups could be classed as a “Wes Craven Special”, because it’s going to be a horror story that likely lasts a little too long, with an expected result at the closing curtain. Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery and Kieren Jack are all having outstanding seasons, and will only increase the Swans (64.7) standing as the #1 inside 50 team, with the Bombers (45.8) at #17.

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Six-gamer Michael Hartley will line up on Lance Franklin, who currently sits second in the Coleman with 23 goals behind the Gold Coast’s Tom Lynch, with 24. You can bet that will change after this weekend, and we wouldn’t be surprised if Jesinta gets up in the middle of the night to see Buddy with a smile on his face as he lays asleep, dreaming of greeting Hartley the following afternoon. Swans by a lot.

Best Bet: Sydney -59.5 @1.45

Feeling Lucky: Sydney -71.5 @1.91

Gold Coast versus Melbourne
This is certainly one that has been dividing the punters. The Demons have gone out to an even $2.00, with Gold Coast firming slightly to $1.84.

Both sides sit out of the eight, and are meeting in a game that will send one back on the right track, while the other attends match review with a few questions being asked. Gold Coast started the season 3-0, and have since leveled out, while the Demons thought the renaissance had arrived, but have cooled their heels following a 135-96 loss to the Saints at Etihad.

The Suns are coming off a 120 point hiding against the Cats, which broke the bank of a few of those who thought that the +65.5 margin was more than enough of a buffer.

The Demons are the #1 clearance side in 2016 with 15.8 per game, with Nathan Jones finally receiving a little bit of help toughness wise from Bernie Vince and Jack Viney. No longer are the Dees the soft-touch of recent times, and the Melbourne faithful are loving it, with constant clapping and shouting of “Go number seven!” and “Let’s go Nathan!”.

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If this was a the MCG we would pencil Melbourne in and get on with our lives, but up at Metricon, it just doesn’t sit well with us to tip them.

Big Tom Lynch, the league’s leading goal-kicker with 24 must be licking his lips at the undersized Demons backline, and with Lynden Dunn given the chop, and Lumumba out, expect him to extend his contested marks tally with plenty more one-clunkers.

A close one here, with the edge going to the boys from the coast.

Best Bet: Gold Coast -2.5 @1.91

Feeling Lucky: Gold Coast 1-39 @2.45

Western Bulldogs versus Adelaide
Labelled as the match of the round, the Western Bulldogs get to act some revenge on the team who eliminated them from the 2015 Finals.

However, the Dogs are beginning to show some cracks in defence with Murphy, Suckling and Johnannisen all missing (for a while, too). Jake Stringer spent most of last week attempting hangers which was not favourable by the coach.

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His counterpart in Tex Walker will also be looking to change his fortunes with only 11 goals after six rounds. Eddie Betts has been in great form taking the mantle of the best small forward in the game this year, and will be a nightmare for the Doggies’ defenders.

The game is played at Etihad where the Doggies are rarely defeated but after the Crows just went down to ladder leader North Melbourne in Round 1 at the same stadium, coach Pyke wouldn’t want a similar result.

Best Bet: Adelaide -19.5 @1.36

Feeling Lucky: Adelaide 1-39 @2.60

Fremantle versus Greater Western Sydney
The GWS Giants are showing the football world what an engineered team with draft concessions and salary cap allowances delivers, and boy does it ever! The 75-point win against the three-time Premiers sent shock waves through the competition and on cue, Eddie McGuire put his two cents in.

Comparing their build to the Suns, the Giants have been patient, securing Premiership players like Stevie J and Heath Shaw, while stock piling draft picks in trades with other clubs. Not-forgetting, they have lost high end draft talent in Treloar, Adams, Tyson and Boyd.

The Dockers, on the other hand, have probably gone into season 2016 with a few players who have passed their used by date. Like the Tigers, the Dockers success with high ladder finishes in recent times has greatly diminished their opportunity to gain draft talent, compounded by zero success at the free agency table.

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It’s no secret that the Dockers have entered the rebuild zone, with Ross Lyon wanting to completely change the club’s fortunes quicker than most other rebuilds.

With fellow newbies the Gold Coast Suns getting the job done in Perth, the Giants will have no issues doing the same.

Best Bet: GWS Giants -11.5 @1.54

Feeling Lucky: GWS Giants -29.5 @2.30

St Kilda versus North Melbourne
Another 300 game milestone will be met this week with Drew Petrie joining the club. Drew’s Kangaroos are sitting pretty on top of the ladder undefeated coming out of a tough 61-45 win against the Doggies last week.

The tall forward line of Jarred Waite, Ben ‘Sideshow Bob’ Brown and of course Petrie, proved to be the difference, with the Bulldogs without the cattle down back to stop the trio.

The Saints continued their improvement with a convincing win against a very disappointing Melbourne side in a 135-96 win. St.Kilda basically didn’t look back after quarter time, kicking 17 goals to blow the Demons away, with another 300 gamer, Nick Riewoldt continuing to find ways to be on his own.

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This game will be a contest between the young and old where the ground is almost a home advantage for both sides. The Kangaroos are the obvious choice with their form but will be exciting to see the Saints continue to take it up to some of the finals contenders.

Best Bet: North Melbourne WIN @1.34

Feeling Lucky: North Melbourne 1-39 @2.25

Port Adelaide versus Brisbane
Although the Power got a much-needed win last week against the Tigers, Sunday’s game at home hosting the Lions has more of a ‘danger game’ feel about it based on the current form of both. Let’s be honest, the Tigers are imploding and the 94-59 victory against them might not have been as impressive as first thought.

In 2015 when these sides last met, the Lions were able to overrun the Power to the tune of 37 points, which began the demise of their season. Port are gaining Chad Wingard, but Robbie Gray will miss another one with a hammy.

Brisbane almost have a full bill of health with Tom Rockliff, Daniel Rich and Dayne Zorko all firing while not forgetting the return of the other ‘Dayne’, in Dayne Beams. Port Adelaide will always go into games like this the overwhelming favourite, but their form is still suspect enough to scoff at the -14.5 line. Brisbane to give it a crack.

Best Bet: Brisbane +29.5 @1.38

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Feeling Lucky: Port Adelaide 1-39 @2.10

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