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Hello Roarers, and welcome back to another week of The Roar’s AFL Expert Tips! I’m said to say last weekend did not go particularly well for me with my two tips against the rest of the comp both failing to get up.
As a result Michael DiFabrizio still has the lead, but I’m three tips behind him and two behind everyone else… gulp! Here’s hoping for a bit of luck this weekend to catch up to the pack on.
The clear match of the round this week is Adelaide vs North Melbourne, the only game for the week to be played between two top eight sides.
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These two teams met earlier in the year with North Melbourne winning by a couple of goals in Round 1, but that match was at Etihad Stadium while this one will be played at Adelaide Oval.
North have also sustained a number of injuries to key players in the time since, while Adelaide come into the match with a relatively clean bill of health.
Adelaide are deservedly favourites here, but I’ve tipped North against the odds too many times in the past to stop now. While there are several good arguments against the Roos, I reckon if they can play with the same physicality they did last week, and straighten up their kicking for goal, they can beat any side, any ground.
Collingwood vs Fremantle presents a bit of tipping dilemma this week as well, even if it doesn’t present as a particularly watchable match.
The Pies have been pretty disappointing this year but the same goes for the Dockers. They have both given their fans at least a small measure of joy however, such as Collingwood’s win over Geelong and Fremantle’s over Port.
Fremantle head into this game in the better form and you’d think there’s a bit of belief building in this team even in the absence of many star players.
That said, despite a number of injury concerns and poor form from key players, Collingwood are still probably the more talented side of these two, and they have the home ground advantage.
I’m tipping Collingwood with absolutely zero confidence whatsoever. Like, the same amount of confidence I would have in Travis Cloke kicking a set shot from 20 metres out directly in front.
The other games this round all have fairly clear favourites. There’s some upset potential here and as I said last week the bye rounds are a bit of a full moon for football where anything could happen, but without any real conviction about where an upset could come from I’ll be tipping the favourites in all four.
Richmond despite their troubles are still a much better side than Brisbane, GWS should be comfortably too good for Carlton at home, St Kilda try hard but lack the talent to trouble Geelong, and Hawthorn vs Gold Coast in Tasmania? The Hawks are my lock of the week.
Michael DiFabrizio
It looks like the Thursday and Friday night games are the real toss-ups.
Home ground advantage makes it hard to overlook Adelaide. 10 points separated the two sides in Round 1 at Etihad Stadium and the Crows are playing better football than they were at the outset of the season.
Sam Edmund of the Herald Sun had some interesting stats to show how the Crows had pivoted since the round 8 loss to Geelong. In short, they went from being ranked bottom five for inside 50s against, time in forward half and forward half turnovers, to ranking first in each. I like their form.
On Friday, it’s painful but I’m going with Fremantle. It’s hard to digest given where they were at not long ago, however it just seems like there’s an element of genuineness to their recent form. You can probably thank Michael Barlow and Matthew Pavlich.
Collingwood may very well be refreshed after the week off, and it is a home game for them, and there’s probably a bunch of other reasons why this could backfire.
But to be fair, the Dockers just aren’t playing like a side that started the year 0-10.
BJ Conkey
North Melbourne have faced a difficult few weeks with injury and results not going their way. It doesn’t get any easier against an in-form Adelaide who should have enough to win the midfield battle at home.
I’m going with the Pies with no great certainty. Fremantle has a historical curse against Collingwood at the ‘G and face the prospect of going into the game without veteran Matthew Pavlich – or at the very best, a hampered Pavlich.
| Round 14 | BJ Conkey | Michael | Josh | The Crowd |
| ADL v NTM | ADL | ADL | NTM | ADL |
| COL v FRE | COL | FRE | COL | FRE |
| RIC v BL | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC |
| GWS v CAR | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| STK v GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| HAW v GCS | HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW |
| Last round | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Total | 81 | 82 | 79 | 81 |