Once more the Melbourne Storm have silently snuck up and become the premiership favourites. However, it doesn’t have to be that way. I’m going to show you the steps you need to follow to beat them.

Before this season started I examined the likelihood of each team winning the premiership.

A lot of those stats examined why sides who didn’t make the eight during the previous season had virtually no chance of winning the premiership.

In only three of the 18 seasons of the NRL (16.6%) was the premier not a finalist in the previous season (Penrith 2003, Wests Tigers 2005 and Roosters 2013).

Of the contenders still standing this pretty much rules out the Raiders, Titans, Warriors, Panthers, Wests Tigers and the Sea Eagles. The Dragons recent performances probably rule them out too.

Only six of the NRL premiers (33%) finished outside the top four the previous season. This throws a big spanner at the Bulldogs and the Sharks.

Only Brisbane in 1997-1998 can even sort of lay claim to winning back-to-back premierships during the NRL era.

This stat suggests the real existence of both the Grand Final hangover and the dissipation of that essential element necessary for winning premierships – raw hunger. This stat bodes poorly for the Cowboys.

In the 18 seasons of the NRL to date, 100 per cent of the premiers have finished in the top four after the home and away season.

There are only two sides that we can be reasonably certain will be in the top four come finals time. They are the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks and Melbourne Storm. While I’d suggest the Cowboys will join them, they don’t have the easiest run home and on only seven occasions (39%) has the premier from the previous year made the top four.

So the Cowboys’ back-to-back chances are really poor, statistically speaking.

And Brisbane’s slim chances aren’t given any good news by the stats. On only two occasions – Melbourne 2007 and Manly 2008 – has the runner-up from the previous season won the premiership.

Back in February I made the prediction that all of these factors pointed to either the Roosters or the Storm winning in 2016. While the Roosters won’t even make the finals this season, the case for the Storm winning now looks compelling.

On top of all the above, there is another stat in their favour – they have the best points differential and the best defence.

Since the start of the National Rugby League in 1998 the side that has won the premiership has averaged at least the second-best points differential. Further, the average points conceded rank for the Premier is 2.7.

In the last ten seasons that gets even more pronounced with the premiers having an average points scored rank of 4.2 and conceded rank of just 1.6, as well as a points differential rank of 1.8.

So, while a good attack is important to win the title, a good defence is essential if you want to be the premier.

And no one has better defence than the Melbourne Storm.

So why are they perennially so damn good? Well, it is actually very simple: ‘Bellamy Ball’.

With the exception of the 2010 season when they were stripped of all of their points, they have made the finals every year since Craig Bellamy became coach in 2003. They’ve made the top four in eight of those 13 seasons.

As a player he was renowned for being hard as nails and uncompromising. That has carried through to his coaching.

‘Bellamy Ball’ relies on determined forward play in attack and defence, with a focus on not missing tackles or making errors. Just look at these rankings for the last five seasons:

The Storm grind the ball out of their own quarter and never push passes or offloads in their red zone. This is highlighted by their very low percentage of tries scored from their own side of halfway.

Once they have ground out as many metres as they can, Cooper Cronk expertly kicks for field position which is supported by consistently superb kick chases. Their defence then works overtime to limit the opposition’s metres and to slow the play the ball down to a snails pace.

They pressure for an error and, when they invariably get it, they run one of their sensational set plays and someone like Billy Slater, Will Chambers, Cameron Munster, Marika Koroibete or Suliasu Vunivalu scores.

It is a very simple plan that they play amazingly well. You can set your watch by it. It is as metronomic as Glenn McGrath’s line and length.

Bellamy demands that each player knows his job and carries it out with a religious fervour no other side can even conceive, let alone match. The sides adherence to Bellamy Ball has meant that the teams many meat and potato players over the last 13 years have often become champions and match winners.

The game plan does rely on some stars though.

Firstly, they must have a Billy Slater, Cam Munster, Will Chambers, Greg Inglis or Israel Folau with the brilliance to score the points.

Secondly, they must have Cooper Cronk marshaling the attack and kicking.

And lastly – and most vitally – they must have Captain Cam Smith – The Referee Whisperer. running the show. Keeping the forwards focused on their roles, keeping the line from being breached, slowing the play the balls down and – of course – managing the referees as only he can.

So how on earth can you beat them? Having watched them closely for all of the Bellamy years I have come up with the following rules for beating the Storm.

1. Don’t drop the ball
A no-brainer, right? Of course it is, but something so few sides manage against the Purple Pride. When coming out of your red zone take absolutely no risks. Every hit up must focus on ball security over everything else.

2. Don’t try to beat them in the forwards
After their defeat to Cronulla in Round 4, Bellamy stated that it was the first time he’d ever seen his side beaten up the middle. It’s the truth. Heed it. If you try to beat them up the centre you’ll invariably lose.

Rugby league is a very macho sport so this tactic is one that will not rest easy with the likes of Paul Gallen or Jared Waerea-Hargreaves. However, it is essential.

Do what General Douglas MacArthur did in WWII fighting the Japanese in the Pacific: avoid their strongholds. Ideally you’ll get the ball to a runner two or three off the ruck on as many plays as you can. This will frustrate and tire out their rushing forwards.

3. Get them one on one in the outside backs
The Storm don’t miss too many tackles, but when they do it is either their lock or hooker falling off a couple of their 40 or more per game. These aren’t catastrophic by any means – however, when they miss tackles in the outside backs it has far worse consequences.

Since the salary cap scandal of 2010 the Storm had to choose where they spent their money carefully. The majority of the cash has gone on retaining Slater, Cronk and Smith. While this year’s Storm backline is the best one since 2010, players of the quality of Greg Inglis, Israel Folau and Matt King are no longer out there.

The Storm’s worst loss at home ever was in Round 18 2012, against the Canberra Raiders. I was on the sideline that day for the ABC and there were two reasons the Raiders creamed the Storm – a) Cam Smith was not playing and b) the Raiders gave lots of quick, early ball to their outside backs and got them one on one with their opponents.

The result was eight tries, all scored in the backs.

I’ve got a lot of time for the likes of Vunivalu, Koroibete, Munster, Chambers and Ryan Morgan in attack. However, I’d back Joey Leilua, Brett Morris, James Roberts, Michael Jennings, Greg Inglis, Kane Linnett, Konrad Hurrell, Josh Mansour and Blake Ferguson against any of them one-on-one.

However, you must get the ball out there quickly to negate their excellent sliding defence. Hopefully that also might get them running out of the line and creating more holes. Further, it is much harder for the Storm to get away with slowing the play the balls down on the flanks where their flops and hold downs will be far more obvious.

4. Annoy Cooper Cronk
Cooper Cronk is one serious dude. Things have to be just right for the Storm halfback or he is prone to getting cranky. It may well be in the opposition’s favour to really pressure Cooper Josh Reynolds or Michael Ennis-style to put him off as his organisation and kicking game are vital to the Storm’s fortunes.

5. Don’t react in a hostile manner – even if you are sorely provoked
Craig Bellamy made it clear on NRL 360 a few weeks ago that his side practices how to deal with every scenario they can think of that might occur. That way, when something happens, no matter how bizarre, the Storm players as usual all know their roles.

One of their chief roles is to slow the play the ball down and to block kick chasers. On many occasions I’ve seen their opponents get rightly frustrated with Storm players pushing the limits of these rules and then – stupidly – lashing out at the Purple-clad perpetrator only to have a wave of Storm players flood into ‘protect’ their guy.

The wronged player gets roughed up and the Storm achieve their end of slowing the play down, neutralising the threat and resetting their line. No Storm player since Adam Blair has been stupid enough to throw a punch so no one will get sin binned. They have practised this scenario. It’s a totally premeditated response to a premeditated situation.

Don’t get sucked in by it. If you are on the attack and a Storm player tries to provoke don’t react under any circumstances. They are just trying to put you off to slow things down. Keep attacking with your eyes on the prize.

6. Run at Cam Smith
The Storm are superb at slowing the play the ball down.

The pioneers of wrestling and grappling, they’ll try to put the ball carrier onto their back every time. However, on the rare occasions that a ball player doesn’t get flipped, Cam Smith will come – often as the third man in – and grab the player over their back in a bear hug that secures just under the ball and around the waist.

This hold means that any attempt by the ball carrier to play the ball is highly likely to lead to a dropped ball. The alternative is an agonisingly slow play the ball. Cam has got it down to an art form and gets away with it all the time.

However, I have seen a way to stop him doing it – run directly at him.

Yes, I know I just told you not to take them on in the forwards. However, if you do run at him he finds it very difficult to control the speed of the play the ball when he’s underneath the likes of Andrew Fifita, Jason Taumalolo, Josh Papalii or Dylan Napa, rather than as the controlling third man in.

Smith’s teammates are nowhere near as good as him at getting away with slowing the play the ball and you’ll either get much faster play the balls, or more penalties, or both.

7. If Cam smith goes to talk to the ref your captain must also go talk to the ref at the same time
As we know, Cam Smith is the master of referee management. With the notable exception of the State of Origin III penalty count, Smith can massage and cajole pretty much any official.

While other players get suspended for farting near a ref, Smith can virtually get to second base and the refs seem to enjoy it. So how on earth do you counter that?

Easy. As soon as he approaches the ref, and whenever he approaches the ref, your captain must also quickly go up and respectfully make it a three-way conversation, politely putting your side’s case forward and rebutting Cam’s point of view.

Bear in mind this must be done as politely, respectfully and reasonably as Cam does it or it won’t work.

The probability is that the refs won’t wear having a conference every five minutes with both captains and will send both away, denying the Whisperer the chance to whisper.

9. Your 18th man must scream for penalties constantly and pressure the refs
I’ve said it before but the Brookvale crowd is the best 18th man I’ve seen in the NRL. They are remorselessly on the back of the referee from the kick off until he hits the spit bridge on his way home. I’ve seen them call for – and frequently get – penalties that existed nowhere but in their own biassed maroon and white brains.

If you want your team to beat the Storm then you and your fellow fans must scream at the refs relentlessly for offside, hold downs, strips, illegal blocking and any other infraction – real or imagined – until you are hoarse. If you do this I guarantee you will get results.

Now, having said all this, please bear in mind that the Storm are really, really good and may well beat you anyway.

Good luck!