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We’re in something of a holding pattern in the AFL season.
Yes, there is plenty of jockeying for positions to be done as it appears that the top five are trying to fit into four, and Ryan told us last week how crucial August would be in forming the top end of the ladder.
Hawthorn are wobblier than they were a week ago, albeit their loss to Melbourne was, like Paul Keating’s recession, the one they had to have. There will likely be two or three more yet before their season ends a win or two short of a fourth straight premiership.
Sydney, Adelaide, GWS and Geelong are trying to out-percentage each other in the race for home finals and the double chance. The Cats have the friendliest draw from here, but are conceding the others a start.
West Coast, the Western Bulldogs and North have fallen off the pace, the latter two due to injury, and are unlikely to seriously challenge. The Dogs are still the most likely to wreak some September havoc.
So, while Ryan projected forward a month in his aforementioned article last week, why don’t we project forward a year and think about what a ladder might look like?
St Kilda are currently in ninth, and a good chance to stay there, but have also laid enough foundations that we can demand finals from them next year. Wins of substance over Geelong and the Bulldogs are their flag in the ground. Interstate humiliations like those at the hands of West Coast and Adelaide must become a thing of the past.
They can rightly measure themselves against the Demons for overall progress, and have beaten them twice this year.
Melbourne’s win over Hawthorn on the weekend, sans Jesse Hogan, was also a landmark victory that must make them declare anything less than finals in 2017 is a fail.
They count GWS as a scalp this season, along with single figure losses to North in Tasmania and West Coast in Perth. A couple of commanding wins over similarly placed Collingwood gives them a nice bunny heading into next year.
Can Port push back into the eight after a couple of absent year, with the return of Paddy Ryder? They need to rid themselves of their multiple personality disorder first.
Pies fans will be calling for the head of Nathan Buckley even more loudly than they are now if they don’t see their team in the finals race. Most importantly, we want to see an injury-free Collingwood for a full season to get an answer to whether Buckley can truly coach.
There is a gun to Damien Hardwick’s head at Richmond, and a growing group of supporters has become disenfranchised as he wastes away the careers of Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin, Brett Deledio and Trent Cotchin with a conservative game style and paralysis-by-analysis stats-heavy coaching method.
If he can’t release the shackles, his team won’t climb back up the ladder, and he will likely be out of a job by this time next year.
Gold Coast has shown enough spirit in the face of adversity in the last two months to suggest they can also be a player next year. Led by Tom Lynch, they have put together some impressive football without a first-choice engine room.
The Suns trade period is going to be fascinating and defining.
Carlton are still evolving, but have offered supporters hope. Fremantle should be aiming to bounce back off an aggressive post-season if they can get a healthy list next year.
Essendon will welcome back a yet-to-be-determined number of suspended players, plus bring in the best young player in the land, and their supporters are entitled to hope of September action with another pre-season of development into the likes of probable best and fairest Zach Merrett, along with Darcy Parish, Aaron Francis, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Orazio Fantasia.
Brisbane are in decay, and are almost beyond hope. A change of coach might be the tonic, as it has been for many teams in the past.
The off-season trade period promises to be hectic, and the direction of each list build will make for compelling monitoring.
Most will have North Melbourne falling down the ladder next year. Some will have Hawthorn missing the eight. Finding others to drop out may not be so easy to find. West Coast will certainly want to find a few levels if they’re to stay up there.
Are Melbourne and St Kilda the best placed to climb their way in? Are Collingwood good enough if they get a healthy run at it? Might the Suns spring a great surprise, or are they another year away if Dion Prestia and Jaegar O’Meara head for the hills?
The next three weeks may tell us a bit more in regards to these questions, or they might bury some fool’s gold. There’s still plenty to be gained from monitoring the progress of the bottom teams over the last few weeks.