With just four rounds to go before the finals, the makeup of the NRL’s top eight is becoming clearer.

On Thursday and Friday nights it became apparent that while both the Dragons and the Sea Eagles have a mathematical chance of making the finals, neither are good enough.

So here are the remaining ten sides. Where will each finish, what are their challenges, and what do their hopes hang on.

Current first position: Storm
Points: 38
The run home: Raiders (a), Sea Eagles (a), Broncos (h), Sharks (h)
Likely ladder finish: first (44 points)

The Storm have been threatening to lose a game recently and the chances are they will on the run home. However, they’ll still finish the home and away as minor premiers.

Needs to lift: Blake Green
Green boasts a respectable eight try assists and seven line break assists. However, if Melbourne are to triumph this year, they need to find an extra gear of creativity.

Cooper Cronk can struggle for creative attacking options, especially when playing from behind. Can Green step up when it counts?

Wild card: Will Chambers
Chambers has missed a lot of football this year, but if he can get back to his best the Storm will have great attacking weapon. His ten tries in 2015 showed his value. Can he do it again this season?

Star: Cam Munster
When Billy Slater’s shoulder went way back at the beginning of the season, I questioned where Melbourne would get their attacking strikepower from. Well, along with Marika Koroibete and Suliasi Vunivalu, Munster has done his best to fill the massive void left by Billy the Kid.

He averages 154 metres a game and six tackle breaks. That goes with his 14 line breaks, ten line break assists and eight try assists.

Most important player: Cam Smith
Smith is in danger of having to do the nudie run at his team’s Mad Monday celebrations as he is yet to score a try. And while he doesn’t make as many tackles as Jake Friend, he has more try assists (13) than Josh Hodgson (12), and is the glue that holds the Storm together. He’s firmly focused on the individual roles that make Bellamy-ball work so well.

Smith’s the guy that can sweet talk a referee like no one else. While the Storm have lots of stars, they’d be lost without Captain Cam.

Second: Sharks
Points: 37
The run home: Dragons (a), Rabbitohs (a), Roosters (h), Storm (a)
Likely ladder finish: second (43 points)

Cronulla’s loss to the Raiders came at a good time, as they will regroup. However, they’ll find it tough in the last round against the Storm in Melbourne.

Needs to lift: Luke Lewis
On August 11, Lewis turns 33.

It is 16 seasons since he made his debut for the Penrith Panthers, and over those seasons he has played as an outside back, an inside back and now he finds himself in the back row.

There is no mistake that the Raiders targeted the ageing warhorse’s defence to great effect. Lewis missed four tackles, with two leading to line breaks and tries. He needs to knuckle down in defence or he may become a turnstile.

Wildcard: Andrew Fifita
A lot of the Sharks’ fortunes hang on the big front rower. While he is making plenty of metres and has a handy offload, his ability to give away penalties is prodigious. He and teammates James Maloney and Michael Ennis are the three most-penalised players in the NRL.

However, while Ennis and Maloney’s penalties are mostly strategic, Fifita’s are often as a result of brain explosions. One of those explosions could cost his side dearly. He needs to get it under control before it costs the Sharks a finals match.

Star: Ben Barba
In 2012, Barba was the Dally M Player of the Year and had line break, line break assist, try assists, tackle break and average metre stats that were second to none.

The next three years have been quiet for the Queenslander, before he exploded back into form this season.

He is averaging 100 metres a game and four tackle breaks. To go with that, he’s made 14 line breaks and scored 13 tries. That’s on top of his 13 line break assists and 15 try assists. And, while we are at it, his missed tackles are at a career-low one per match.

If Cronulla are any chance to win their maiden title, a lot rests on Barba maintaining his great form.

Most important player: Michael Ennis
If there was one thing we learnt from the Sharks’ first loss in 17 games, it was just how vital their retiring hooker is to their fortunes. Their ruck defence was a shadow of its usual self and their 39 missed tackles for the evening was 14 more than their average.

While some of this can be attributed to the five-day turnaround from the Titans draw, there is no question that we’ve now discovered the essential piece to the Cronulla puzzle.

Ennis’ 37 tackles a game and over one penalty conceded per game seems to be the glue that holds the Sharks’ fortunes together.

Third: Raiders
Points: 31
The run home: Storm (h), Eels (h), Sea Eagles (a), Wests Tigers (a)
Likely ladder finish: fourth (35 points)

Perhaps I’m being pessimistic, thinking the Raiders will only win two of their remaining four games, however they have a rotten record against the Storm at home, and the Wests Tigers at Leichardt in the final round will be a very tough game.

Further, the Sea Eagles have made a habit of ripping the Raiders apart at Brookvale. Two wins should see them still finish in the top four.

Need to lift: Junior Paulo and Shannon Boyd
I hear you already: “Paulo and Boyd need to lift? They are killing it!” Well, statistically they aren’t actually that good.

They certainly aren’t close to Matt Scott and James Tamou in 2015 good. Or the Burgii in 2014 good. Or even Jared Warea-Hargreaves and Sam Moa in 2013 good.

If Canberra want to be genuine premiership contenders, their starting props need to be combining for 250-plus metres a week, every week. Right now between them, they only average 205 metres a match, with Paulo making 116 and Boyd just 89.

That is nowhere near what the starting props should be making for a team with premiership ambitions.

Wildcard: Blake Austin
If there was an award for nicest human currently playing in the NRL, Austin would get on the podium. However, mostly due to injuries, the goateed lad from Mount Druitt is yet to scale the heights of 2015 with his attacking play.

Last season his line breaking (17) and try scoring (14) set the Raiders attack on fire. So far this season he has played eight fewer games than he did last year, but he has made seven line breaks and scored seven tries in that time.

If he can reprise his best form for the rest of the season, the premature talk of his Raiders being genuine contenders in 2016 might not be as optimistic as it appears.

Star: Jack Wighton
When Wighton threw that intercept pass to Euan Aitken during golden point extra time in Round 10, there were many, many Raiders fans calling for him to be dropped. I was not one of them.

In fact, I did the opposite. The kid is not just talented, he is as hard as iron.

As Lachlan Bickley examined earlier this week, Wighton was going through a bad trot. He isn’t anymore.

After his first 14 games, he had an average of three tackle breaks a game, had made just one line break, scored two tries, and made a massive 29 errors. In the last five games, he’s averaged 4.5 tackle breaks, made four line breaks, scored five tries and made just four errors. Further, his hits in defence are often akin to being hit by a truck.

In a team full of high performers he is at the top of the heap.

Most important player: Josh Hodgson
There is no question that the absence of Ennis from the Sharks side – along with the five-day turnaround on top of a tough 90-minute draw – was a large part of the reason that the Raiders triumphed over Cronulla.

However, the other reason was Josh Hodgson. As he has been so often since his arrival in 2015, he was outstanding.

His control of Canberra’s ruck defence, expert dummy-half passing, superb dummy-half running and 40-20 prowess has him only behind Ennis and Cam Smith in the hooking role.

Further, his ability as a creative ball-player can rip sides apart. His kick on the run for Jordan Rapana’s second try was top notch. He leads the Raiders for try assists this season with 11, makes the second most tackles after Elliot Whitehead, and is one of only four Raiders this season to not have missed a game.

It’s noteworthy that Hodgson was only signed after Ennis turned Canberra down because they wouldn’t give him the third year that he has now decided to not play anyway.

Fourth: Bulldogs
Points: 30
The run home: Sea Eagles (h), Broncos (a), Cowboys (h), Rabbitohs (h)
Likely ladder finish: fifth (34 points)

The Bulldogs have run hot and cold this season. One moment they are beating the Storm in Melbourne or belting the Broncos, the next they are getting crushed by the Cowboys and just scraping home over the Dragons.

Their run home isn’t the easiest and they are a good chance of losing two of the four remaining games.

Needs to lift: Michael Lichaa
The ex-Shark is a superb defender, averaging 48 tackles a game this season. However, the other chief role of a hooker is to deliver the ball expertly to the receivers, especially the playmakers. As we saw when Josh Reynolds blew up at him earlier this season, that delivery is often lacking.

If Lichaa can improve his ball delivery, you can bet the Bulldogs’ attacking fortunes will rise.

Wildcard: Josh Reynolds
If you’ve read my articles previously, you’ll know Reynolds is one of my favourite players. While I’m not a huge fan of his frequent need to trip, I do love his electric attack and his love of the fans.

This season he’s become far more error-prone. Last season he made 14 errors, this year he’s already made 23.

If he can get his handling together and improve his combination with Moses Mbye, the Dogs could again challenge for the title.

Star: Moses Mbye
Taking over the halfback reins from Trent Hodkinson was never going to be easy – the Bulldogs have high standards and high expectations to match.

Mbye has met those expectations. His 15 try assists are the third best in the NRL this year, after Johnathan Thurston and Ben Hunt. Further, his 14 line break assists are the fourth best.

The Queensland product turns just 23 on Saturday. That’s awfully young to be so good.

Most important player: James Graham
Last season I called for the Bulldogs to drop Graham as captain. His brain explosions don’t go well with captaincy.

However, there is no doubting that his 150 metres a game and 38 tackles do go very well with the leadership mantle.

When his side was getting flogged by the Cowboys, Graham was ripping in right to the end. The Englishman is as tough as they come and scared of no one. Every opposing player respects him.

Graham can change a game with his determination, however his brain explosions can lose games just as fast.

Will it be Good James or Bad James that wins out? The blue and white faithful will be hoping for the former.

Fifth: Cowboys
Points: 28
The run home: Roosters (a), Warriors (h) Bulldogs (a), Titans (h)
Likely ladder finish: third (36 points)

The Cowboys have had their wake-up call and they’ll win their last four games to finish third. The only questionable result is the away match to the Bulldogs, and maybe the Titans.

However, the boys from Townsville need to get their act together right now if they want to be the first side since 1993 to go back-to-back, as just one more loss could see them miss the top four. No side in the NRL era has won from outside the top four.

Needs to lift: James Tamou and Matt Scott
Just like with Boyd and Paulo at the Raiders, the Cowboys’ representative props’ form has dipped compared to last year.

They’ve dropped about 40 metres a game and three tackle breaks. They are the key players that provide the go forward that Johnathan Thurston plays so well behind. They need to give their star halfback the room he needs.

Wildcard: Lachlan Coote
Last season Coote averaged 125 metres a game and 3.5 tackle breaks. This impetus contributed heavily to his 17 line break assists, 15 try assists and 12 line breaks.

Those playmaking stats were second only to Thurston.

This year he has 12 line break assists and 13 try assists, but his average metres are only 77 a game, along with just 1.5 tackle breaks, and three line breaks.

If the Panthers junior can rediscover his best form, the North Queenslad juggernaut may take the finals by storm.

Star: Johnathan Thurston
He is the best player in the game. Second is daylight (third is Cam Smith).

In only 17 games he has 17 line break assists and 18 try assists already. We’ll miss him when he is gone.

Most important player: Johnathan Thurston
His absence from the side in the Round 21 match highlighted that he is the core of the Cowboys. He is the Alpha and the Omega.

While the side is full of stars, you’ve got to wonder just how many would have been stars without him.

Part 2 tomorrow!