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The Broncos face another Queensland rival, and this time it’s the big one in the Cowboys. When these two clash it’s must watch for every NRL fan. So what do the stats say?
North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos
7:55pm, Friday 16 September, 1300 Smiles Stadium
Any side travelling to play the Cowboys in Townsville would rightly have great trepidation. The Cows don’t lose too many with their superb captain Johnathan Thurston calling the shots.
Can a wounded Broncos side cause the upset and gain revenge for last year’s dramatic grand final?
Overall: This is the 47th game between the Cowboys and the Broncos.
The boys from North Queensland have played their southern Queensland cousins more than any other team since they entered the competition in 1995. The record stands at Cowboys 13, Broncos 30, with three draws.
Form: The Broncos enter this game with the better form. They’ve won six straight. That included beating the Storm in Melbourne.
The Cowboys have won three of their last five. That includes losses to the Storm away and the Roosters away. Their one and only loss at home was to the Storm in round 21, and they were without Johnathan Thurston for that game.
Finals: This is the sixth finals game between these sides and the fourth in the last three years.
The Cowboys have won four from five of the finals against the Broncos, with their only loss being the Qualifying Final in Brisbane last year.
The Cowboys are six from six when playing finals in Townsville.
The last ten: The last ten between these clubs have been split 50-50 and pretty much have gone with home ground advantage – last year’s grand final venue of course being neutral. The last time one of these sides beat the other side away from home was the Broncos back in round 20, 2013.
At this Venue: This will be the 25th game between these sides at this venue. The Cowboys have won eight, the Broncos 15 and there has been one draw.
Notably the Cowboys have won six of the last seven here – including the last four straight – by an aggregate score of 170-106, an average score of 24-15.
2016 records against top eight sides: Both sides have played twelve games this year against the other side’s who finished in the top eight. Both the Broncos and the Cowboys have a 50 per cent win record.
The Broncos have only won two from six when playing top eight sides away from home (Titans – Round 5, Storm – Round 25).
The Cowboys have won five from six against top eight sides at home this season. As stated above, their only loss was sans Thurston against the Storm in Round 21.
Referees: Matt Cecchin has officiated five games between these two sides. the Broncos have won four. However, the last time Cecchin officiated in a match between these two was in 2012. Alan Shortall has never refereed a game between these two sides.
Matt Cecchin has been the whistle blower for Cowboys games 35 times. the Cowboys have won 17 of them (48.5 per cent). He has reffed the Broncos 36 times and they have won 20 (55.5 per cent).
Alan Shortall has officiated the Cowboys 24 times and they have won 15 of them (62.5 per cent). He has reffed the Broncos 14 times and they have won eight (57 per cent).
Scoring by Quarters
I have painstakingly kept records of each NRL sides scoring in 2016. We can now get a pretty good indication of how this match will play out by comparing the Cowboys home attack and defence against the Broncos away attack and defence.
To make this even more precise, we will just examine their scores against the other sides that finished the home and away season in the top eight.
Cowboys Attack/Broncos Defence
| 0m-20m | 21m-40m | 41m-60m | 61m-80m | Extra | Totals | |
| Cowboys attack @ Home | 8.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 |
| Broncos defence @ Away | 2.9 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 17.7 |
| Average | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 0 | 21.4 |
As you can see, the Cowboys can start games fast. However, the first 20 minutes is also when the Broncos defence is at its very best.
The Broncos biggest issue is that the Cowboys finish games even stronger than they start them and the Brisbane defence in the last 20 is at its most vulnerable.
Broncos Attack/Cowboys defence
| 0m-20m | 21m-40m | 41m-60m | 61m-80m | Extra | Totals | |
| Broncos attack @ Away | 4.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 18.9 |
| Cowboys defence @ Home | 2.0 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 16.0 |
| Average | 3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 17.4 |
If the Broncos are to win this game they must have a decent lead up by the last 20 minutes. Fortunately, their best attacking period coincides with the Cowboys worst defence.
The Broncos will need to rack up the points in the second twenty of the first half and then try to carry it on after half time too. If they can they might just be able to hold off the Cowboys late charge.
Statistically predicted score: 21-17 Cowboys
Defence
Team Stats – average per game 2016
| Stat | Cowboys | Broncos | Difference |
| Line breaks conceded | 2.7 (2nd) | 3.5 (4th) | +0.8 Cowboys |
| Missed tackles | 23.6 (5th) | 24.2 (7th) | +0.6 Cowboys |
| tries conceded | 2.4 (2nd) | 3.1 (4th) | +0.7 Cowboys |
| Meters conceded | 1314 (2nd) | 1355 (7th) | +41 Cowboys |
| Penalties conceded | 6.8 (10th) | 5.3 (1st) | +1.5 Cowboys |
| Errors | 9.0 (2nd) | 9.6 (5th) | +0.6 Broncos |
As you can see the Cowboys just shade the Broncos in most defensive categories. The Cowboys have been miserly in defence this season and are only bettered by the Storm’s Purple wall.
Note that the Broncos give away the least penalties of any side in 2016. Given these figures, this could be an arm wrestle.
Player Stats
| Stat | Cowboys | Broncos |
| Tackles made | Ethan Lowe – 32
Gavin Cooper – 31 |
Andrew McCullogh – 43 (6th NRL) Matt Gillett – 38 Josh McGuire – 35 |
| Missed tackles | Johnathan Thurston – 3.1 Jake Granville – 2.3 Michael Morgan – 2 |
Ben Hunt – 3.6 (4th NRL) Matt Gillett – 2.6 Anthony Milford – 2.2 |
| Penalties conceded | Jake Granville – 18 (5th NRL) James Tamou – 16 Gavin Cooper – 14 |
Anthony Milford – 13 James Roberts – 12 Jarrod Wallace – 11 Andrew McCullogh – 11 |
| Errors | Michael Morgan – 30 (3rd NRL) Lachlan Coote – 26 Gavin Cooper – 21 |
Anthony Milford – 28 (4th NRL) Ben Hunt – 25 Corey Oates – 21 |
The errors for both sides come from the hands of their creative players who handle the ball the most and who try to throw the decisive passes. Michael Morgan and Anthony Milford are the 3rd and 4th ranked error makers in the NRL this year. Notably absent from this list is Johnathan Thurston.
Thurston is not absent when it comes to missed tackles though. Nor is his opposite number in Ben Hunt.
Attack
Team Stats – average per game 2015
| Stat | Cowboys | Broncos | Difference |
| Line breaks | 4.4 (6th) | 4.6 (5th) | +0.2 Broncos |
| Tackle breaks | 25.1 (9th) | 26.1 (7th) | +1 Broncos |
| tries scored | 4 (2nd) | 4 (2nd) | Equal |
| Meters made | 1473 (2nd) | 1392 (7th) | +81 Cowboys |
| Penalties received | 6.3 (14th) | 6 (15th) | +0.3 Cowboys |
Gee, neither of these sides get many penalties. And Brisbane barely gives away any. Mixed with both sides’ low error rate, this game could be incredibly quick due to very few stoppages.
Both in attack is relatively mediocre until you get to the tries scored at which point it becomes clear that they both are actually top notch attacks. At the end of the day nothing says good attack better than lots of tries.
Player Stats
| Stat | Cowboys | Broncos |
| Tackle breaks | Michael Morgan – 3.1 Jason Taumololo – 2.7 Kyle Feldt – 2.3 |
James Roberts – 4 Anthony Milford – 3.5 Corey Oates – 2.7 |
| Line breaks | Antonio Winterstein – 14 Michael Morgan – 12 Jason Taumololo – 11 |
Corey Oates – 18 (5th NRL) Anthony Milford -16 James Roberts -14 |
| Metres gained | Jason Taumololo – 154 (7th NRL) James Tamou – 129Matt Scott – 121 |
Josh McGuire – 127 Corey Oates – 125 Corey Parker – 118 |
| tries scored | Kyle Feldt – 13 Antonio Winterstein – 13 Justin O’Neill – 11 |
Corey Oates – 17 (4th NRL) Anthony Milford – 14 Jordan Kahu – 14 |
| Try assists | Johnathan Thurston – 23 (1st NRL) Lachlan Coote – 17 (5th NRL) Michael Morgan – 15 |
Ben Hunt – 21 (3rd NRL) Anthony Milford – 13 Darius Boyd – 12 |
| Line break assists | Johnathan Thurston – 22 (1st NRL) Lachlan Coote – 15 Michael Morgan – 12 |
Anthony Milford – 17 (5th NRL) Darius Boyd – 13 Ben Hunt – 12 |
Anthony Milford is clearly the key to the Broncos attack.
He can do it all: break the line, break tackles, assist tries, make metres. If he is on his game the Broncos could be headed to Sydney to take on the Sharks in the Preliminary final.
Johnathan Thurston is the NRL’s leading try and line break assister (again). He is well supported by Michael Morgan and Lachlan Coote.
The Broncos triumvirate of Milford, Hunt and Boyd is very good, but not quite that good.
As you can see, most of both sides tries are scored out on the flanks. expect that trend to continue in this game.
Jason Taumololo makes a mighty 154 metres a game. If he makes that or more in this match it’ll put the Cowboys well on the way to wining. He is the best wrecking ball in the NRL presently.
Michael Morgan is just starting to hit some good form. The Broncos will be sweating trying to contain the great JT. If Morgan fires it could be too much for them.
Johnathan Thurston once more leads the NRL in line break assists and try assists. He is the key to this game. If he fires it will be virtually impossible for the Broncos to win.
Anthony Milford is a decade the junior of Thurston but in ten years time he may have a similar legacy. He has started to regain his devastating early season form. Can he excel in this game?
Darius Boyd knows how to chime into a backline to excellent effect. His try and line break assists are testament to that. He’ll need to be at his best.
Sam Thaiday can be a right pain is the ass. For the Broncos to win he needs to make good metres and also get under the Cowboys skin and put them off their game.
Who is going to win and why
It’s almost impossible to tip against the Cowboys in Townsville, especially with the Broncos facing a shortage of outside backs. Barring an injury to Thurston and/or Milford having a blinder I can’t see the Broncos winning.
Prediction: Cowboys by 8.