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This NRL finals match pits a side on a roll against a side suffering a crisis of confidence.
Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers
7:45pm, Saturday 17 September, GIO Stadium
Can the Panthers juggernaut roll on over the previous flavour of the month team to keep their dream alive?
Can the Raiders regroup without star hooker Josh Hodgson?
Either way the ‘prize’ for the winner is to face the Melbourne Storm in Melbourne in the preliminary final.
Overall: This is the 71st game between these two sides. The Raiders have played the Panthers more than any other side since they entered the competition in 1982. The Raiders have won 35, the Panthers 34 and there has been one draw.
Form: The Panthers come into this game having won eight of the last nine. That includes a win over the Titans and the Bulldogs. More importantly they’ve won the last six straight.
The Raiders, conversely, are coming off their first loss in three months and will be suffering a crisis of confidence just when you don’t want one.
Finals: This will be the eighth final between these sides. It stands at the Raiders winning five, the Panthers two. The last time the Panthers beat the Raiders in a finals game Royce Simmons scored the sealing try.
The last finals match between these sides was at Panther Park in 2010 when the seventh placed Raiders stunned the second placed Panthers. Perhaps turnabout will be fair play for the Panthers here. There is only one player remaining in either teams first grade squad from that game: Jarrod Croker.
The last ten: Following a frequent trend, the last ten games between these sides has been split five each.
At this Venue: This is the 27th game between these sides at this venue. The Raiders have won 18, the Panthers six. The Raiders have won seven of the last ten games here.
Referees: Ben Cummins has refereed four matches between these two sides – including their 2010 final – and the Raiders have won all four. Gerard Sutton has officiated just one match between these sides. It was in 2009 in Sydney and the Panthers won.
Gerry Sutton has reffed the Raiders 22 times in all. The Raiders have won nine (40 per cent). Ben Cummins has reffed the Raiders 24 times and the raiders have won 12 (50 per cent).
Gerry Sutton has reffed the Panthers 14 times in all. The Panthers have won 6 (43 per cent). Ben Cummins has reffed the Panthers 32 times and the Panthers have won only nine (28 per cent).
Scoring by Quarters
I have painstakingly kept records of each NRL sides’ scoring in 2016. We can now get a pretty good indication of how this match will play out by comparing the Raiders home attack and defence against the Panthers away attack and defence.
To make this even more precise, we will just examine their scores against the other sides that finished the home and away season in the top eight.
Raiders Attack/Panthers Defence
| 0m-20m | 21m-40m | 41m-60m | 61m-80m | Extra | Total | |
| Raiders attack @ Home | 6.3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 20.9 |
| Panthers defence @ Away | 4.3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 18.7 |
| Average | 5.3 | 3.7 | 4 | 6.7 | 0 | 19.8 |
The Raiders do like to get off to a flying start. However, the Panthers defence is pretty good in the first 20 minutes.
However, their defence can turn to cheese in the last twenty minutes, so the Panther horde that is preparing to flood down the Hume Highway will be hoping their attacking machine has put on enough points in the first 60 to be able to hold off a fast finishing Raiders.
Panthers Attack/Raiders defence
| 0m-20m | 21m-40m | 41m-60m | 61m-80m | Extra | Total | |
| Panthers attack @ Away | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 20.0 |
| Raiders defence @ Home | 5.4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 18.0 |
| Average | 5.4 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 0 | 19 |
And it seems that the Panthers scoring patterns are almost identical to the Raiders: fast starts and fast finishes. The Raiders attack and defence is ever so slightly better.
Statistically predicted score: 20-19 Raiders
Defence
Team Stats – average per game 2016
| Stat | Raiders | Panthers | Difference |
| Line breaks conceded | 3.6 (6th) | 4.2 (8th) | +0.6 Panthers |
| Missed tackles | 22.8 (3rd) | 31.4 (15th) | +8.6 Panthers |
| tries conceded | 3.3 (5th) | 3.3 (5th) | equal |
| Meters conceded | 1340 (5th) | 1352 (7th) | +12 Panthers |
| Penalties conceded | 7.4 (14th) | 6.8 (8th) | +0.6 Raiders |
| Errors | 10.1 (5th) | 10.5 (3rd) | +0.4 Panthers |
Everyone is amazed by the Panthers attack of late and that has drawn focus away from their defence. Their missed tackles are second only to the Knights. Their line breaks conceded are mediocre too. They are also the third most error prone side in the NRL this year. If things start to go wrong for the Panthers they could go very wrong.
The Raiders defence has improved steadily all season. At one stage they were 14th for metres conceded, 10th for line breaks conceded, 12th for missed tackles and tries conceded and worst for errors. they are in the top three for all of those stats over the last two months.
Note that the Raiders give away lots of penalties. However, their number one transgressor – Josh Hodgson – won’t be there.
Player Stats
| Stat | Raiders | Panthers |
| Tackles made | Elliot Whitehead – 39 Josh Hodgson – 33 Sia Soliola – 28 |
Trent Merrin – 36 Peter Wallace – 33 Bryce Cartwright – 27 |
| Missed tackles | Sam Williams – 2.6 Elliot Whitehead – 2.4 Aidan Sezer – 2.3 |
Peter Wallace – 2.8
Bryce Cartwright – 2.8 James Fisher-Harris – 2.7 |
| Penalties conceded | Josh Hodgson – 21 (3rd NRL) Elliot Whitehead – 13Luke Bateman – 12 Sia Soliola – 12 |
Peter Wallace – 19 (4th NRL)
Bryce Cartwright – 16 Isaah Yeo – 14 |
| Errors | Jack Wighton – 37 (1st NRL) Joey Leilua – 28 (5th NRL) Jordan Rapana – 26 |
Bryce Cartwright – 31 (3rd NRL) Waqa Blake – 26 Josh Mansour – 23 |
The Raiders have lost their second highest tackler and their most important strategic penalty conceder in Josh Hodgson.
The only try the Bulldogs scored last week against these Panthers was through Bryce Cartwright and his dodgy defensive reads. Why the Dogs didn’t try it more is beyond me.
He won’t be so lucky against the Raiders. They will target him. The problem for the Raiders is that Bryce might stand up quite well.
The Panthers will try and get Jack Wighton to get a case of the dropsies and Bryce Cartwright will be once again hoping to run over Aidan Sezer and his suspect defence.
Attack
Team Stats – average per game 2015
| Stat | Raiders | Panthers |
| Tackle breaks | Jordan Rapana – 6.2 (3rd NRL) Joey Leilua – 5.2 (6th NRL) Jack Wighton – 3.5 |
Josh Mansour – 4.6 (8th NRL) Tyrone Peachey – 4.0 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 2.8 |
| Line breaks | Jordan Rapana – 22 Jarrod Croker – 15 Joey Leilua – 9 |
Josh Mansour – 19 Tyrone Peachey – 13 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 11 |
| Metres gained | Jack Wighton – 133 Jordan Rapana – 132 Joey Leilua – 120 |
Josh Mansour – 158 Trent Merrin – 137 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 118 |
| tries scored | Jordan Rapana – 20 Jarrod Croker – 17 Joey Leilua – 11 |
Josh Mansour – 15 Tyrone Peachey – 11 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 10 |
| Try assists | Josh Hodgson – 14 Jack Wighton – 11 Aidan Sezer – 8 |
Matt Moylan – 17 Bryce Cartwright – 10 |
| Line break assists | Joey Leilua – 15 Jack Wighton – 12 Josh Hodgson – 11 |
Matt Moylan – 20 Bryce Cartwright – 10 |
These stats show that the Raiders have a stellar attack, better than the Panthers across the board.
What they don’t show you is – just with the Raiders defence above – just how much the Panthers attack has improved in the last nine games.
After the Raiders – who clocked up cricket scores against the Tedesco-less Wests Tigers and demoralised Rabbits – the Panthers have the form attack.
Without Hodgson the Raiders will go all out attack and I’m sure that’s what the Panthers will do too. This should be a try fest.
Player Stats
| Stat | Raiders | Panthers |
| Tackle breaks | Jordan Rapana – 6.2 (3rd NRL) Joey Leilua – 5.2 (6th NRL) Jack Wighton – 3.5 |
Josh Mansour – 4.6 (8th NRL) Tyrone Peachey – 4.0 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 2.8 |
| Line breaks | Jordan Rapana – 22 Jarrod Croker – 15 Joey Leilua – 9 |
Josh Mansour – 19 Tyrone Peachey – 13 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 11 |
| Metres gained | Jack Wighton – 133 Jordan Rapana – 132 Joey Leilua – 120 |
Josh Mansour – 158 Trent Merrin – 137 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 118 |
| tries scored | Jordan Rapana – 20 Jarrod Croker – 17 Joey Leilua – 11 |
Josh Mansour – 15 Tyrone Peachey – 11 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – 10 |
| Try assists | Josh Hodgson – 14 Jack Wighton – 11 Aidan Sezer – 8 |
Matt Moylan – 17 Bryce Cartwright – 10 |
| Line break assists | Joey Leilua – 15 Jack Wighton – 12 Josh Hodgson – 11 |
Matt Moylan – 20 Bryce Cartwright – 10 |
Just look at the calibre of those tackle breakers! What a time to be alive.
We get to see Leilua, Mansour, Rapana and Tyrone Peachey doing their human pinball impersonations and playing like there is no tomorrow. This is why finals footy is the best footy.
What can you say about Josh Mansour? Metres, tries, tackle breaks, line breaks, speed, strength: he’s got it all. He’ll give the Raiders defence nightmares.
Then there is Trent Merrin. Hard not to like the big unit. Lotsa metres and a few tries in him.
Matt Moylan is playing his best footy ever and willing the Panthers to greater things.
And Nathan Cleary doesn’t even show up in these stats but the kid is a superstar. It is hard to believe he is 18.
If the Raiders have a chance to win it lies with Rapana, Leilua and Croker. They’ve got to score and score lots.
The Danger Men
Matt Moylan. As said above, he is in career best form. 20 line break assists and 17 try assists are even more impressive when you realise that he’s missed five games. Does his running style remind anyone else of the great Bernie Larkham?
Josh Mansour’s form is irresistible. He can make a try from nothing and he’ll be trying to every time he touches the ball. He is the most influential winger in the game right now.
In just 14 matches Nathan Cleary has six try assists, six line break assists and four tries. Has someone bothered to tell him that he’s just a kid and can’t be this good yet?
Trent Merrin might be a work horse but he’s got some skills for a big man. He like it rough and ready and asks no quarter while regularly running 140 metres a match and tackling everything that moves. He has a try in him too.
Blake Austin’s broken hand has made him the forgotten man of the Raiders attack. He has missed the last four games and eight all season. However, the boy from Mount Druitt is the Raiders X-Factor.
He is the guy that makes something happen when nothing is and it is he who they missed last week in that last 20 minutes. He’ll be out for a big one against his old club.
Joey Leilua has been amazing this season. Sure he can miss a tackle and make an error. However, he can also steal the momentum and terrorise attacks. He will not die wondering in this game.
So much of the focus on Jack Wighton this year has been on his really high errors and then on his tribunal visit. However, he is the Raiders highest metre making player, their third highest tackle breaker, has made 12 line break assists and 11 try assists and scored eight tries.
Who is going to win and why
I have no idea. The Panthers have their tails up but the Raiders are at home and won’t go down without a fight.
Prediction: This match is too close to call. Someone by two or less.