And then there were four. The race for the 2016 AFL premiership is set to go all the way down to the wire, and Hawthorn’s failure to reach the preliminary final for the first time since 2011 has made things even more interesting.
The Hawks’ 23-point loss to the Western Bulldogs saw the triple-reigning premiers not only crash out of September in straight sets, but also saw their bid for a four-peat, achieved only by Collingwood in 1927-30, ended in swift fashion.
It was thought that the experience of having won premierships, let alone played in finals, would’ve been the difference between the Hawks and the Bulldogs on Friday night.
Instead, the young pups, who have been decimated by injuries for most of the season, stood up to their more experienced campaigners with a stunning two middle quarters in which they kicked eleven goals to five.
Led by the likes of Caleb Daniel, Jake Stringer and Marcus Bontempelli, the Dogs then held on in the final quarter to register yet another significant victory in their recent history, following on from their equally impressive 47-point win over the West Coast Eagles in Perth.
Luke Beveridge’s men are now enjoying their third consecutive break of eight days or more before they fly to Sydney next Saturday to face the GWS Giants at Spotless Stadium in their first preliminary final since 2010.
It will be their third trip to the Harbour City this year alone, having lost to the Giants by 25 points at the Sydney Showgrounds before beating the Swans by four points across town at the SCG six weeks later.
While the Dogs would love to erase the demons of their hat-trick of preliminary final failures between 2008 and 2010, the Giants will start favourites to become the equal-quickest expansion club to reach the grand final (the West Coast Eagles also made the decider in their fifth season, in 1991).
Leon Cameron’s men will also bid to become the quickest expansion side since the Eagles in 1992 to also win the flag, and their preliminary final against the Bulldogs will throw up a lot of interesting points.
One will be that coach Cameron, co-captain Callan Ward and Ryan Griffen will be facing off against their old club, while former number one draft pick Tom Boyd will do likewise after walking out on the Giants after just one season in 2014.
Another is the capacity of Spotless Stadium, which has a capacity of just 24,000, making this the smallest ground to host an AFL preliminary final in recent history.
Having drawn small crowds at their Sydney base in their formative years, the Giants this year drew five-figure crowds to their home matches against Hawthorn, the Sydney Swans, Carlton, Collingwood and West Coast Eagles.
They also drew more than 10,000 to their matches in Canberra against the Geelong Cats, Port Adelaide and Richmond.
They now stand to sell Spotless Stadium out for just the second time ever when they welcome the Western Bulldogs to the ground for the second time this season, having beaten Luke Beveridge’s men by 25 points in round nine.
As for the Hawks, while their golden period of dominance appears to have ended for now, their fans will be hoping that this season was only an aberration and that the club will bounce back in 2017.
Alastair Clarkson’s men had to battle through adversity this season, with Jarryd Roughead missing the entire season due to a knee injury and a recurrence of the skin cancer which will almost certainly sideline him for most of next year.
Their percentage of 118.6 per cent was the third-lowest of any top-eight team this season and the lowest for a top-four team since the Geelong Cats had a percentage of 113.8 per cent just two seasons ago.
The story certainly could’ve been a whole lot different had Isaac Smith nailed his post-siren set shot at goal against the Cats last Friday night, which would’ve put them in pole position to qualify for their fifth consecutive grand final.
Instead, they are left lamenting their worst finals result since 2010, which was the last time they failed to win a finals match in a calendar year.
A huge burning question for the 2017 season will be whether they can bounce back and revert back to the champion side they once were, or whether their time at the top is up.
One team whose time at the top hasn’t ended just yet are the Sydney Swans, who avoided becoming the first minor premier since North Melbourne in 1983 to crash out of September in straight sets.
John Longmire’s men led from start to finish to beat a dogged Adelaide Crows outfit by 36 points in the first final to be played at the SCG since 2005.
Injured pair Kurt Tippett and Callum Mills could be joined on the sidelines by Jarrad McVeigh (calf) and Gary Rohan (knee) after both suffered game-ending injuries on either side of half-time.
But if anything, it didn’t stop the Swans from avenging their ten-point loss to the Crows in Round 4 and setting up a blockbuster preliminary final against the Geelong Cats at the MCG this coming Friday night.
Despite the injuries, and the odds being against them, the Swans should have every reason to be confident that it can reach its third grand final in five years.
They are 3-0 against the Cats in finals matches, including the 2005 semi-final thriller in which Nick Davis kicked four final-quarter goals including the winner with seconds left, and also won their most recent preliminary final at the MCG that same year against St Kilda.
In addition they also beat the Cats by 38 points at Simonds Stadium in their only meeting this season.
That, coupled with the GWS Giants beating the Western Bulldogs in Round 9, means the possibility of an all-Sydney grand final, which would be a dream match-up for the AFL but Eddie McGuire’s worst nightmare, is still alive.
If it eventuates, it would mark a historic moment for the AFL, which has never before had a local derby grand final in its code. To date, however, there have been three non-Victorian deciders, with the Swans being involved in two of them.
Last year, though, the NRL celebrated its first local derby decider when the North Queensland Cowboys defeated the Brisbane Broncos in golden point extra time. It was just the second decider not to feature a local team (after the Broncos and Melbourne Storm contested the 2006 grand final).
For the Crows, it was a disappointing end to an otherwise impressive season in which they ranked first in the AFL for points scored, and there’s no doubt their 29-point loss to West Coast in Round 23 will come back to bite them hard.
Because if they had won that game, for which they were without Rory Sloane and Brodie Smith, they would’ve secured the double chance and they could have been playing for their first grand final berth since 1998 this coming weekend.
But as always, there is scope for improvement and there’s no doubt Don Pyke’s men will again be up there among the contenders in 2017.
There are now just three matches to be played before the premiership is decided. Will it be an all-Sydney grand final, or will it be a local affair between the Geelong Cats and Western Bulldogs? We wait to find out.
Preliminary finals
Friday, September 23
Geelong Cats versus Sydney Swans, MCG, 7:50pm
Saturday, September 24
GWS Giants versus Western Bulldogs, Spotless Stadium, 5:15pm
The winners of both preliminary finals will face off in the 2016 AFL grand final
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