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Max Gawn is a match-winning ruckman, hugely influential, and a top 20 player in the game, but his absence over the next three months should barely be felt by Melbourne.
As good as gun ruckmen can be, they are among the most replaceable commodities in the game.
The premiership Western Bulldogs didn’t play a recognised ruckman for most of last year, and coach Luke Beveridge has been known to go without them at all in different phases of a match during his tenure.
Aaron Sandilands is a four-time All-Australian. The least amount of games he has played across two consecutive seasons was 2012-13 when he played 24 of a possible 49 matches. Fremantle made the semi-finals and a grand final thanks to the efforts of Jonathon Griffen and Zac Clarke.
Some people might say the importance of Sandilands was highlighted last year, when he only played five matches as the Dockers undertook the most dramatic fall in the history of the game. Rubbish. Anyone saying that wasn’t using either their eyes or brain when watching Fremantle in 2016, given how deep their problems ran.
Nic Naitanui did an ACL in Round 22 last season. West Coast’s best win of the year was in Round 23, without him, when they took down Adelaide in Adelaide, who were second on the ladder having won 12 of their previous 13 games.
If you think Naitanui’s absence in the elimination final loss was the reason the Bulldogs beat them, then you’ve got bigger problems. Malfunctioning eyes, no brain.
Premiership ruckman Shane Mumford left Sydney at the end of 2013, and the Swans played in the grand final the next year with Mike Pyke taking up the running.
Hell, Todd Goldstein was the dominant All-Australian ruckman in the comp two years ago and based on the evidence of Round 3, 2017 is not even the number one man at North Melbourne anymore.
Two-thirds of the number one ruckmen in the competition this year started their careers at other clubs, and most of those were down the pecking order at the side they came from.
Toby Nankervis was fourth in line for a ruck spot at Sydney last year, and has been a revelation as the number one man at Richmond in the early part of this season. Jarrod Witts is in the same category after leaving Collingwood for the Gold Coast Suns
Sam Jacobs was the third-stringer at Carlton before becoming an All-Australian nominee in his second year at Adelaide. Stef Martin, at Brisbane now, wasn’t even considered a ruckman at Melbourne, but has probably been the best in the competition so far this year.
The point is, ruckmen crave opportunity and, at Melbourne, Jake Spencer will embrace his.
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Champion Data’s AFL Prospectus tells us that Spencer excelled at VFL level last year, in the areas of score launches, score involvements, clearances and contested possessions. It’s a great recipe for a bullocking ruckman, in the mould of a Mumford or Nankervis.
Spencer basically has only been seen fleetingly at AFL level in his nine years at Melbourne, and most observers probably remember a light-weight stripling. He’s 203cm’s and 105kg’s now, and is 27 years old. He looked good in the pre-season and moved well.
Ruckmen often take until their mid-20s to mature, and he could do worse than look at his former teammate Mark Jamar, who was 27 when he came from nowhere to be named All-Australian in 2010.
It needs to be remembered, the Demons are not losing Gawn and being forced to play with 17 men. They do not lose the sum total of Gawn, they simply lose the difference between him and his replacement. Sometimes in the ruck, all you need is a hardened body who can compete, win some contests, halve others, and be hard enough to play against that your midfield can break even or win.
Spencer may not match Gawn for contested marking or goals, nor weight of hit outs, deft palmwork, or simply as a monstrous presence, but he will offer the attributes named above. He is fit, hard and hungry. He is ready.
Gawn is Melbourne’s best player, but not their most important. It should be noted the Demons were dominating Geelong in general play when Gawn went down in the second quarter, and their dominance continued through the third term in his absence. Poor goal-kicking cost Melbourne that game of football, not losing Gawn.
The overall midfield battle – intensity, hardness, clean hands at stoppages, run and carry, good ball use – these are all more important to the outcome of a game than what any one ruckman can provide.
If the Demons butcher opportunities in front of goal as they did on Saturday, it won’t matter who the ruckman is. No ruckman can prevent turnover goals if the McDonald brothers and Jake Melksham continue to be shaky disposers of the ball in the back half.
Melbourne were expected to play finals this year, both externally and internally. It will be an indictment on Jack Viney, Nathan Jones, Clayton Oliver, Dom Tyson, Jordan Lewis and their fellow midfielders if they can’t continue to shape and win games with Spencer as their ruckman instead of Gawn.
Yes, they will need to adjust their tactics at stoppages, but these are professional footballers with teams of coaches to help in this regard. They will need to increase the amount of footage they watch of opposition rucks, and put more time into reading those cues.
Adelaide, Richmond and Geelong are the three unbeaten teams in the AFL at the moment, and they have won the hit out-to-advantage count twice between them so far, from nine matches.
Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Sydney are yet to win a game this season, and collectively, have only lost the hit out-to-advantage stat twice.
Fremantle had 29 hit outs to advantage to Geelong’s six in Round 1, yet lost by 42 points. They also won the count against the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night, but only 15 to five. The midfield battle was decisive in both matches, but it did not revolve around this facet of the game.
Winning a football match is about winning an accumulation of moments. You need to win more of them than your opposition, and capitalise on them when the time arrives. A ruckman, like any player, can only win you a relatively minor amount of these moments.
No, Melbourne are not ‘Gawn’ because of the absence of big Max. Far from it. Opportunity presents. For Jake Spencer to make his name. And for the club to show the maturity they have promised. Let’s see what they deliver.