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Welcome to the Thursday night forecast for Round 4, where an appetising match-up awaits, a mildly disappointing West Coast coming off a loss, hosting a Sydney outfit finding themselves winless and desperately in need of victory.
The Eagles have underwhelmed to various degrees in all three matches so far this season, albeit winning two of them. They took a half to shrug off an inexperienced North Melbourne side at Etihad in Round 1, were outplayed for three quarters by a dogged St Kilda at Subiaco in Round 2, and then were out-toughed in the wet against Richmond at the MCG last weekend.
The Swans are in a tricky situation themselves. To start 0-3 is bad enough, but they have done so by dropping two games at the SCG against sides that didn’t play finals last year.
Much has been made of the injuries Sydney have sustained early in the season, but plenty of teams have had longer injury lists than this and won games. And the Swans have still had a bevy of stars available.
Sydney’s lack of depth, which has been eroded in recent seasons, is costing them matches at the moment, just like it cost them on grand final day, when their bottom six offered very little as a collective, particularly at key stages.
Jonathon Giles versus Callum Sinclair isn’t exactly a ruck duel that will have the turnstiles clicking over, but what happens at their feet certainly will.
Luke Shuey is the number one man at the Eagles now, and is the most likely from either side to win the ball at a stoppage and explode away from it. None are better at holding their position in the contest than Josh Kennedy, Matt Priddis gets his hands dirty more than anyone, and Dan Hannebery showed signs last week he was back in form after a quiet two weeks.
Sam Mitchell is Sam Mitchell, but has started attracting some criticism for his inability or unwillingness to push back without the ball. He’s made a career of making the right judgement calls over and over and over again, and that goes for with the ball and without. We can trust him to position himself where he can have the most impact.
Luke Parker has been flat through the opening rounds. Yeah, he’s winning some football, but not as much as he can, he’s not doing a lot with it, and the goals aren’t coming as they usually do from him. Tom Mitchell is gone and Isaac Heeney has been out, so Parker hasn’t been able to rest forward as much.
Sydney have put an interesting spin on team selection, losing a ruckman in Sam Naismith and the 190cm first game Jordan Dawson, but bringing in two running smalls to replace them.
It’s clear John Longmire and his coaching staff have seen both St Kilda and Richmond outplay West Coast with pressure and run over the past fortnight, and are looking to be strong in those particular facets of the game.
The Eagles are outstanding when they get to play the game on their terms, and we know they base their best football on intercepts, both marks and possessions, in defence through Jeremy McGovern, Elliot Yeo and Tom Barrass, with Shannon Hurn, Brad Sheppard and Sharrod Wellingham none too shabby either.
Richmond had success when not falling into the trap of going long inside forward 50 last week, but instead broke the West Coast defence open with short passing once inside the 60m-70m zone. Expect to see Sydney replicate that this week.
Sam Reid will play as the sole focal point for that get out kick, and we know he has as good a pair of hands as any forward in the competition when high on confidence. But look for the Swans to divide and conquer the defence by using smaller marking targets, and of course Buddy Franklin will roam the forward half of the ground.
The Sydney back six looks to match-up well against the West Coast forwards, particularly if the midfield can break even.
Aliir Aliir has the size, speed and athleticism to go with Josh Kennedy, while Heath Grundy will take Jack Darling. Nick Smith is a good match-up for an in-form Mark Le Cras.
West Coast go in with more battle-hardened depth across the ground, while the Swans are much younger and fleet-of-foot, with some bright prospects that have looked the goods when they’ve been around the ball, and are learning quickly on the job where to run and when.
The Eagles have looked ripe for the picking across the first couple of rounds, and were plucked last week. Sydney have had a harder draw and are getting closer to a win. If John Longmire can out-coach Adam Simpson, then his team can get the job done.
Round 3 was a weekend of upsets, and Round 4 might just kick off the same way. Sydney by 9 points.
That’s my Thursday night forecast. What’s yours?