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This year’s rugby June window in Australia is the weakest in ages with Fiji, Scotland, and Italy – but there’s no certainty the Wallabies will win all three.
Far from it.
The Wallabies are currently ranked three in the world, with Scotland an all-time high five, Fiji tenth, and Italy, the poor relations of the Six-Nations, a flattering 15th.
Cheika named a 34-strong squad for the three Tests against Fiji at AAMI Park this Saturday, Scotland at Allianz on June 17, and Italy at Suncorp on June 24 that became 36 with halfback Nick Phipps, and centre Samu Kerevi both injured.
Of those 36, 11 are from the Waratahs who have been an embarrassment to their fans, their supporters, their franchise, their code, and themselves.
But the Waratah names are still there – Jack Dempsey, Ned Hanigan, Michael Hooper, Sekope Kepu, Tola Latu, and Tom Robertson among the forwards, and Israel Folau, Bernard Foley, Nick Phipps, Jake Gordon, and Rob Horne among the backs.
(AAP Image/Paul Miller)
They have worn the once famous blue jersey to win just four of their 13 Super Rugby games this season, but have been consistently praised by their gibbering coach Daryl Gibson, and equally gibbering captain Hooper for “winning” the second half after forgetting to turn up for the opening 40 minutes.
Those facts are a disgrace, but an alarming pattern has surfaced in the last year, with the benchmark New Zealand rugby and the All Blacks.
In the 2016 Super Rugby standings, the Hurricanes, Highlanders, Chiefs, and Crusaders all won 11 of their 15 games, while the Blues won eight.
That’s 52 wins in the 75-game campaign for a 69.33 per cent success rate.
The Australians?
The Brumbies won 10, the Waratahs eight, Rebels seven, Reds three and Force just two for 30 wins in 75, at a forgettable 40 per cent success rate.
Worse still, the five Australian teams won just three of the 25 games against the Kiwis.
Internationally, the All Blacks won 13 of their 14 Tests that included the shock result of the season when Ireland won 40-29 at Chicago.
Nonetheless the All Black success rate was 92.86 per cent.
The Wallabies?
They won only six of their 15 Tests, losing all three to the All Blacks for a success rate of just 40 per cent.
(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
It’s the same story in 2017.
So far the five New Zealand teams have played 64 games for 49 wins, and a success rate of 76.56 per cent.
For the record the Crusaders are unbeaten in 13 games, the Hurricanes have won 10 of 12, the Highlanders 10 of 13, the Chiefs nine of 12, and Blues seven of 14.
But the Australian quintet have won just 18 of 62, for a miserable 29.03 per cent success rate, as well as heading for a 0-25 result against Kiwi sides.
It’s just not good enough.
The Fijians have won only two their 20 Tests against the Wallabies, and they were way back in 1952 on their first tour with a 17-15 success at the SCG, and an 18-16 win in 1954, also at the SCG.
I well remember champion Fijian winger Joe Levula breaking clear down the western touchline, and from nowhere Dick Tooth emerged with a sensational diving tackle that bundled Levula into touch at the corner post.
It’s still one of the greatest tackles I’ve ever seen.
But Scotland has beaten the Wallabies nine times among the 30 encounters, ranging from 1927 through to 2012, both are Murrayfield.
That leaves Italy who have never beaten the Wallabies in 16 attempts, nor England in 23, or the All Blacks in 13.
And if they ever did it would be a bigger shock than Ireland beating the men in black last year.
So Michael Cheika has his work cut out over the next three weeks, and if he comes through unscathed, it will be one of his greatest coaching feats.