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2017 AFL season: Round 14 preview

Gary Ablett of the Suns (fourth from left) is seen after addressing players after the round 12 AFL match between the Richmond Tigers and the Gold Coast Suns at the MCG in Melbourne, Sunday, June 12, 2016. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Roar Guru
20th June, 2017
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2329 Reads

With the bye rounds over, normal service resumes this weekend as the run to the finals begin in earnest.

The final Thursday night match (well, until at least Round 23) of the regular season sees the Adelaide Crows host Hawthorn at the Oval, where the Crows will be keen to continue their reign at the top of the ladder.

After escaping suspension for a head-high bump last weekend, Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin will be primed for another huge performance against the Bombers, while two former premiership stars will bring up significant milestones this weekend.

Adelaide Crows versus Hawthorn
After both clubs enjoyed their byes last weekend, the Adelaide Crows and Hawthorn will resume their seasons in what shapes as a sell-out Thursday night blockbuster at the Oval.

The Crows have been the form team of the competition by a country’s mile, winning all but one of their six home games by an average margin of 70.8 points, with its smallest win by 56 points.^

It also possesses the most potent attack in the league, and has the best percentage of any other team.

All these statistics, as well as former powerhouses Hawthorn languishing in 17th place on the ladder, should point to another easy win for the men from West Lakes tomorrow night.

However, there is a hoodoo Don Pyke’s men have to overcome if they are to bank their 10th win for the season – and that is the fact that they have yet to beat Hawthorn at the Adelaide Oval.

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The Crows already have a win over the Hawks up their sleeve, winning by 24 points at the MCG in Round 2. Their previous win came in Round 1, 2011, when they won by 30 points at AAMI Stadium.

For the Hawks it will be the second time this year that they have travelled to the Oval, and they’ll be hoping that it ends much better than their last trip did.

Against Port Adelaide in Round 11 they were kept scoreless in the first quarter, and took until early in the third to register their first goal, eventually losing by 51 points.

And if their form so far this year is anything to go by, then the Hawks’ season from hell could take another turn for the worse.

^ – note their 17-point win over Port Adelaide in Round 3 does not count because it was Port Adelaide’s home game.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 32 points.

Sydney Swans versus Essendon
After losing their first six games of the season, and seemingly having their finals hopes all but shot, suddenly the Sydney Swans have breathed life back into their season with five wins out of their last six to currently be sitting just a game outside the eight.

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The Swans endured a poor start against Richmond at the MCG last week, taking a quarter and a half to kick their first goal, and having Lance Franklin suspended for a careless bump on Connor Menadue (for which he has escaped with a $1,000 fine).

However, John Longmire’s men would climb out of the canvas to trail by just 13 points at three-quarter-time, before wiping the floor with five final-quarter majors to win by nine points and keep its season alive.

Now, for the third week in a row they will face an opponent that is fresh off its bye, in eighth-placed Essendon, which is in a much better place than it was twelve months ago.

The Bombers’ last outing prior to their bye last week saw them score a huge 70-point win over Port Adelaide at home, continuing their resurgence after the well-documented struggles of last year.

If they are to break their hoodoo against the Swans this weekend, they will have to shut down the one man who has tormented them both as a Hawk and a Swan – Lance “Buddy” Franklin.

The three-time Coleman Medallist has kicked an average of five goals in 13 matches against the Bombers, and has not lost against them in round 6, 2010 (even so, he kicked six of Hawthorn’s nine goals in that match).

He also kicked the 2010 goal of the year against them.

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If anything, Buddy and the Sydney Swans will be more than fired up for this one, but if they are to keep their finals hopes alive, they cannot afford to take the Bombers lightly in this one.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 24 points.

Collingwood versus Port Adelaide
The first match on Saturday afternoon sees Collingwood host Port Adelaide in a battle which will be crucial to the finals hopes of both clubs.

The Pies had been gathering steam in the month leading up to their bye, only to be stopped in their tracks by an inspired Melbourne side in the week before their bye.

Their return of five wins and seven losses is a better return than what many expected to this point of the season, but the reality is that coach Nathan Buckley is still under pressure to deliver results as he nears the end of his contract.

On the other hand, it will be difficult to predict which Port Adelaide side will turn up to the MCG for what is their first of two matches at the home of football for the season.

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The Power bounced back from their poor showing against Essendon by defeating a spirited Brisbane Lions side at home by 40 points, but we are yet to be convinced that they are genuine finals contenders.

They are yet to notch a win over a top-eight side this year, the closest coming when they lost by two points to the Geelong Cats in Round 10.

And with the Pies currently outside the eight, you’d think that Port Adelaide should take the points – after all, their recent record against the Pies is strong, having won three of their last four meetings, including by 67 points in the corresponding match last year.

If the Power are to prove that they are indeed finals contenders, then a huge win will be the minimum requirement. However, against the Pies at the MCG, it won’t come easy.

Prediction: Port Adelaide by 12 points.

Brisbane Lions versus GWS Giants
One side that is still struggling, but are starting to turn the tide, are the Brisbane Lions.

They may be sitting in last place on the ladder and are the favourites to take out the wooden spoon at the end of the year, but don’t let any of that fool you for one bit.

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In the fortnight following their Round 11 bye the Lions have been impressive, defeating Fremantle at home by 57 points and taking the fight up to Port Adelaide at the Oval last week, losing by 40 points.

However, they will face tough opposition when they face the injury-ravaged GWS Giants at home this Saturday night.

The Giants are coming off a much-needed week’s rest, before which they lost a one-point thriller against Carlton at Etihad Stadium, that result coming after four consecutive weeks of close victories by a grand total of 30 points.

Defender Heath Shaw will bring up his 250th AFL game this weekend, which will provide the club with an incentive to win and keep their premiership hopes on track.

Shaw has been a rock in defence since arriving at the club from Collingwood at the end of 2013, and his presence (along with many others) has contributed significantly to the club’s rise up the ladder in recent years.

Coincidentally, his milestone will come at the very same ground where his brother, Rhyce, brought up his 200th AFL game while playing for the Sydney Swans against the Brisbane Lions three years ago.

Original Giant Dylan Shiel will also be celebrating a milestone of his own, bringing up his 100th AFL game.

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Once again the Giants will start favourites against the Lions but will be aware that the side they face will pose a different threat to those that have lost their last three meetings by an average of 51.3 points.

Prediction: GWS Giants by 23 points.

Steve Johnson AFL GWS Giants 2017

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Western Bulldogs versus North Melbourne
In the space of half a season, defending premiers the Western Bulldogs have gone from being the hunter to the hunted.

Talk of a premiership hangover at the Whitten Oval will continue for at least another week after the Bulldogs copped a 57-point hiding from Melbourne at home last Sunday.

Luke Beveridge’s men were outworked for all four quarters, but the bad news didn’t end just there – defender Lin Jong suffered a knee injury early in the match which has ruled him out for the remainder of the year.

However, in better news for the beleaguered club, captain Robert Murphy is a chance of returning after missing the past fortnight with a hamstring injury.

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This Saturday night’s match against North Melbourne should provide an incentive for the club to bounce back.

The Roos were plagued by skill errors and turnovers in a disappointing loss to St Kilda last week, in what was their only Friday night match for the season.

That only added to the pain of an already poor season for Brad Scott’s men, who will start as underdogs against a Western Bulldogs side that was three times as worse.

Despite the recent poor form of both clubs, a good crowd is expected into Etihad Stadium to see which club will bounce back from their last-start defeats.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 10 points.

West Coast Eagles versus Melbourne
With another home game coming up this Saturday night, another big win for the West Coast Eagles looms as a possibility.

At home, the Eagles are close to unbeatable (with the exception of round 10 when they lost to a half-strength GWS Giants side), but on the road they are very poor (just two wins outside of their home state so far this season).

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This came to a head last Thursday night when the Eagles dominated the Geelong Cats from start to finish, only slowing down when the result was beyond doubt.

It broke a month-long winning drought which included poor losses to Essendon and the Gold Coast Suns on the road, on either side of the aforementioned loss to the Giants at home.

While they face another quality opponent in Melbourne this weekend, the visitors will be without co-captain Nathan Jones for at least a month after he suffered a quad injury in the Dees’ 57-point win over the Western Bulldogs last Sunday.

This will leave the other co-captain, Jack Viney, to lead the side solo for the first time.

Simon Goodwin’s men dominated the premiers from start to finish, the fuse being lit after Tomas Bugg posted a story on social media targeting last year’s Norm Smith Medallist, Jason Johannisen, who was nullified by the Sydney Swans the previous week.

Facing the Eagles in Perth will be another tough assignment, and the numbers are against the Dees – they haven’t beaten the Eagles anywhere since 2009, and not in Perth since 2002.

In fact, they haven’t won in the west since they beat Fremantle in mid-2004.

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While this Saturday’s match presents another chance for the Dees to break another hoodoo, recent history suggests it won’t be broken.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 22 points.

Geelong Cats versus Fremantle
The first match on Sunday afternoon sees the Geelong Cats return home to host Fremantle side at Simonds Stadium.

After a hat-trick of wins at their redeveloped home ground, the Cats, fresh off the bye in Round 12, were no match for the West Coast Eagles in Perth, being made to look second-rate for the majority of the match.

Only two late goals made the scoreboard look more respectable, but coach Chris Scott wouldn’t have been happy with the effort his side dished up in the west.

This followed similarly poor losses against Collingwood, the Gold Coast Suns and Essendon, and it’s those losses that could prove that the Cats still have a lot of work to do if they are to contend for the premiership in 2017.

Joel Selwood Geelong Cats AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Joe Castro)

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Now they face a Fremantle side which had enjoyed a renaissance in form, winning six of seven matches in between their two heavy losses at the Adelaide Oval in rounds two and ten.

Their last outing prior to the bye saw them cop a 57-point thrashing from the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, and with this being their second match on the road in three weeks, there appears to be no respite.

However, Simonds Stadium does provide some fond memories for Dockers fans, as it was at this ground where the club set themselves up to qualify for the 2013 grand final with an upset 15-point win in the qualifying final.

They also won by 44 points in their most recent visit to the ground, way back in Round 2, 2015, in the match where Nat Fyfe was best-on-ground, one of many he would receive en route to winning the Brownlow Medal that year.

His battle with reigning Brownlow Medallist Patrick Dangerfield, who had his colours lowered against the Eagles, will go a long way towards determining the outcome of this match.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 30 points.

Richmond versus Carlton
Judging by the fluctuations in form of both Richmond and Carlton this season, it’s fair to say that this match could go either way.

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After starting the season with five straight wins, the Tigers have dropped five of their last seven games, four of them by nine points or less, to currently be sitting in fifth place on the ladder.

Their recent misfortunes with close matches continued when they lost to the Sydney Swans by nine points last Saturday afternoon, despite leading by nearly 40 points in the second quarter.

This followed heartbreaking losses to the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle and the GWS Giants which, had the Tigers won each of them, could’ve seen them sitting in top spot on the ladder.

Now they face a Carlton side brimming with confidence following upset victories over the GWS Giants and Gold Coast Suns in the past fortnight.

The Blues backed up their one-point win over the Giants by taking it right up to the Suns on the holiday strip, leading by 21 points at quarter-time and going on to win by ten points despite briefly losing the lead in the final term.

The win was orchestrated by a phenomenal performance from Bryce Gibbs, who earned 43 disposals, laid ten tackles and kicked two crucial goals in the final quarter to get his side home.

Another highlight was the performance of Jack Silvagni, whose two goals, also in the last quarter, saw him named the club’s fourth Rising Star nominee this season.

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But while there are exciting times ahead for the club, it’s still clear that there is still a long way to go, and despite their opponents’ recent run with bad luck, will start underdogs at the MCG this Sunday afternoon.

Prediction: Richmond by 12 points.

St Kilda versus Gold Coast Suns
The final match of the round will see one of the greatest players of the millennium, Gary Ablett Jr, bring up his long-awaited 300th game when the Gold Coast Suns travel to Etihad Stadium to face St Kilda.

After bringing up his 250th game late in the 2013 season, many believed that the two-time Brownlow Medallist would bring up his 300th game early in the 2016 season.

However, a serious shoulder injury first suffered against Collingwood in mid-2014 would signal the first of the recent injury woes Ablett would endure in recent years.

But so far this year the ‘son of God’ has enjoyed a career renaissance and has been best-on-ground in most of the Suns’ wins this year, this coming after he was denied a request to return to Geelong last year.

The Suns will want to use the occasion of this being his 300th game to revive their season, after they blew a good chance to further climb up the ladder against Carlton last week.

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Despite starting as favourites, the Suns were made to look second-rate against a Blues side brimming with confidence following their upset win over the GWS Giants the previous week.

Touk Miller Gold Coast Suns AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

Rodney Eade’s men will want to ensure they don’t repeat the same mistake of taking their opposition lightly when they face the Saints at Etihad Stadium on Sunday.

The Saints bounced back from a poor showing against the Adelaide Crows at the Oval to defeat North Melbourne by 17 points and keep its finals chances alive.

But as ugly as the overall match may have been, as noted by the commentators, Alan Richardson would’ve been happy just to secure the four points for his side.

Although the Saints are at home, I think the occasion of this being Gary Ablett’s 300th AFL game will inspire the Suns to victory at Etihad Stadium.

Prediction: Gold Coast Suns by 16 points.

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