There is no doubt Johnathan Thurston’s absence from the third State of Origin game this year leaves a huge hole for Queensland selectors to fill – if they’re to ensure that the state has the best possible chance of retaining the shield come July 12th.
We are talking about a guy who has been a walk-in to the side since 2005 and helped lead Queensland to an unprecedented level of Origin success.
Thankfully for the Maroons, the state truly is spoiled for choice when it comes to representative-quality halves available for selection. Daly Cherry-Evans, Michael Morgan and Ben Hunt all put their hand up for selection with match-winning displays over the weekend, while Melbourne’s Cameron Munster and Paramatta’s Corey Norman have also been mentioned due to their strong form so far this season.
So what factors should decide who gets the nod? Oftentimes breaking things down to numbers provides the clearest indicator of form and style. Below I’ve listed some of the key stats for each halves contender that provides a fair overview of their 2017 form. I’ve also included the stats of Cooper Cronk and Thurston for comparison.
| NRL 2017 (AVG) | Daly Cherry-Evans | Michael Morgan | Cameron Munster | Corey Norman | Ben Hunt | Cooper Cronk | Jonathan Thurston |
| Tries | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Try Assists | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Runs | 4.2 | 7.7 | 11 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 5.7 |
| Run Metres | 36 | 64 | 97 | 61 | 34 | 38 | 44 |
| Line-breaks | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Line-break Assists | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Tackle-Busts | 1.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Offloads | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Kicks | 8 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 11.5 | 10 | 11.2 | 10 |
| Kick Metres | 205 | 173 | 43 | 293 | 294 | 289 | 237 |
| Tackles | 22.5 | 11.9 | 18 | 15 | 21.9 | 12.5 | 12 |
| Missed Tackles | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 4.1 |
| Errors | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1 | 1.7 |
Bold = Best
Italicised = Worst
Stats provided by Fox Sports Lab
The stats make for interesting comparisons. Munster and Morgan, top the runs, run metres, tackle-busts and line-break categories, yet both run low in kicking categories, suggesting that they tend to play a supporting role in the territory battle.
Cherry-Evans, Norman and Hunt seemingly play a more game-managing role, running less but kicking more. Try Assists remain consistent however with almost every player setting up close to a try a game, meaning that all players possess playmaking skills of some capacity.
But stats can also be misleading. Michael Morgan for one has alternated between a leading and supporting playmaking role this season depending on Thurston’s availability for the Cowboys. Stats such as kicks and kick metres are helpful in highlighting the roles of players but do little to shed light on the actual quality of particular kicks.
Other useful traits such as on-field presence, cohesion and temperament are often difficult to break-down into numbered form. For this reason, basing selection on stats alone seems an ill-advised strategy.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Instead, I advise the Queensland selectors to consider two main elements when deciding who should replace Thurston for Game 3. Firstly, what type of player do they want? Secondly, they need to recognise the context of the game and what separates it from a standard club game.
To my mind, the most helpful aspect of these stats is that they help highlight the different playing styles of each player. Morgan and Munster tend to play primarily running roles, Cherry-Evans and Hunt play as more traditional, managing halves, whereas Norman falls somewhere in between, leaning slightly towards the game-management style of play.
This is where Queensland should first look, identifying what exactly they want their new No. 6 to do and picking the best-suited player for that particular position.
The second element I mentioned is the context. Simply put, you cannot treat Game 3 of a live State of Origin series like a club game, and so team selection should be approached with this in mind.
Whereas for the NRL, where picking a side is largely a process of picking the best players available to you within the salary-cap then working on player combinations with the benefits of pre-seasons and week-to-week football games to work out kinks, picking a team for the deciding match of a State of Origin series operates under different rules.
Whoever is picked should not be done so as a look to the future or investment in youth, as that is what emerging Origin camps, dead rubbers and arguably, the first game of the series, are for.
The person picked for Game 3 of an Origin game should be the best man for the immediate job, as until it is over, winning this particular game is all that matters.
So with all that being said, let run through the options again.
Ball-Runners
Michael Morgan
Why he will get picked: Proven match-winner who is already well-established in the Queensland setup.
Like Cherry-Evans, Morgan has the appropriate ‘big-game’ experience that should ensure he will be able to handle the pressures of a State of Origin decider. In addition to this, Morgan is a natural five-eighth, thrives when playing off the back of a dominant half-back, and is unlikely to undercut Cronk.
Why he won’t get picked: His utility is likely to be his undoing.
Starting Morgan in the No. 6 jumper means leaving a large gap on the bench, especially in recent times with the introduction of Head Injury Assessment (HIA) tests, having backup players ready to cover all positions is crucial.
On a technical note, Morgan’s kicking game still needs work, his long-kicking game in particular. While slightly offset by the fact that Cameron Smith is himself a handy kicker, and can take some of the pressure off Cronk, picking Morgan at No. 6 gives NSW a clear game-plan to target Cronk, something that paid off in Game 1.
(AAP Image/ Action Photoraphics, Robb Cox)
Cameron Munster
Why he will get picked: Combinations.
This is easily the biggest selling point with Munster. In short, Munster has played more games with Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith and Billy Slater than any of the other contenders.
While playing for the Storm, Munster’s strong running game and safe hands have complemented Cronk splendidly, with Melbourne sitting pretty at the top of the NRL ladder as a result.
Why he won’t get picked: Inexperience.
While Munster may possess valuable experience playing next to Melbourne’s ‘big three’ in the NRL, State of Origin is a different beast. Just because Munster excels in his role at Melbourne, does not guarantee that this will translate to Origin success, something Tim Glasby will probably attest to.
Like Morgan, Munster’s kicking game falls well short of Cherry-Evans’ and this will likely put Cronk’s own kicking game under increased pressure.
Game Managers
Daly Cherry-Evans
Why he will get picked: Most complete half in the game after Cronk and Thurston.
Currently, he is everything you want in a halfback. He sets up tries, possesses a strong long-and-short kick game, can nail clutch field goals, has experience in pressure situations and is a strong defender. On stats and form alone, he seems a no-brainer.
Why he won’t get picked: Queensland don’t necessarily need another half-back.
While Cherry-Evans is a more than handy game manager, Cronk is not too shabby himself. For Cherry-Evans to be picked, Queensland selectors must be confident that DCE’s assets will complement Cronk’s game, rather than disrupt it, or take his job away.
An argument has been put forward that Cherry-Evan’s previous failures at Origin level were largely due to his style of play conflicting with Johnathon Thurston’s, thus stifling Queensland’s attack. Whereas Thurston’s game revolves around taking the ball close to the defensive line in order to draw in defenders, Cherry-Evans prefers to punch through the defence by finding runners angling back into defenders and catching them flat-footed.
While Cherry-Evans thrives at club level because Manly plays to his style, Queensland tends to play more direct, meaning the attempting to turn players back in may disrupt pre-established attacking structures. If picked for Queensland, Cherry-Evans would have to conform to the team, not the other way around.
Unfortunately for Cherry-Evans, not only did he struggle to do exactly this when paired with Thurston during the 2014 State of Origin series, but also during the Four Nations series the same year partnered with Cronk, where Australia found themselves beaten by New Zealand twice throughout the tournament.
While Cherry-Evans is seemingly the best half available to Queensland, the short preparation time and do-or-die nature of the game might make Cherry-Evans inclusion too big a disruption to Queensland’s established gameplan.
Corey Norman
Why he will get picked: He’s not Cherry-Evans.
Quite simply, Queensland must decide whether they want a ball-running half or a game-managing half to partner Cronk for Game 3.
Behind Cronk and Cherry-Evans, Norman is the next best game-managing half that is currently available for Queensland. If the Maroons want to take some of the kicking and decision-making pressure off Cronk and decide Cherry-Evan’s style is incompatible with Cronk’s, then Norman is the obvious next choice.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
Why he won’t get picked: Untested.
Even if selectors feel Cherry-Evans is not the right fit for Queensland’s current game plan, there is no proof that Norman is.
Going into a decider with an untested halves combination is a risky ploy. Of the leading contenders, Norman has the least experience with the Queensland setup and will have to adapt quickly under pressure. Tough ask.
Ben Hunt
Why he will get picked: A different type of utility.
Cameron Smith had an unusually poor match in Game 1. He missed tackles, and didn’t just look tired, but also old.
He put in a much better performance in Game 2 but nevertheless, judging by the cloak and daggers game currently being played by Melbourne in regards to his availability for their upcoming game against Brisbane, it does indeed seem like the past decades of rep football are finally catching up with Smith’s body.
What Hunt has over the other contenders, is significant experience in the dummy-half position. If the Queensland selectors feel Smith’s ability to play the full 80 minutes isn’t a given, they may choose to gamble on Hunt, who could cover for Smith if need be, allowing a player such as Morgan to then slot into the five-eighth role later in the game.
Why he won’t get picked: It’s too big a gamble.
Why certainly a fine all-around player, Hunt’s consistency is still an issue. He has yet to completely escape the stigma brought upon by his unfortunate final minutes in the 2015 grand final, meaning question marks still remain over his ability to handle the pressure that comes with big matches.
The Verdict
Pick Morgan if you want the least amount of disruption to Queensland’s current gameplan, or pick Cherry-Evans if you don’t want to heap too much pressure on Cronk.
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