The North Queensland Cowboys have pulled off three upsets in a row to earn the right to take on minor premiers the Melbourne Storm in the NRL grand final.
The Cowboys, who finished eighth, had the toughest run of any team through the finals series, having to go past the always-tough Cronulla Sharks, a red-hot Parramatta Eels, and then grand final favourites the Sydney Roosters.
But Paul Green has somehow managed to extract something extra from them each week, and while all three wins have been in different styles, they more than deserve their place in the big dance.
The first win was a grind, there’s no way around it. They had to defend, defend and then defend some more, trailing the match for the best part of 80 minutes, levelling it up, and then taking the lead for the first time in the 85th minute with a Michael Morgan field goal.
They were behind at halftime against the Eels, but found their way back into that contest as well. They forced errors, made things happen and the form of Morgan continued to go from strength to strength.
As much as we rant and rave about Morgan though, it’s been a complete team effort and that was on display as they returned from the death twice against the Roosters last week.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
On the other hand, no one was supposed to be close to the side from the Victorian capital, after they blitzed through the regular season to finish on 44 competition points with a for and against of almost 300.
Based on those numbers, the way they have performed in the finals has been less than impressive.
Their first-week victory over the Eels never felt convincing, and the side never fully hit their stride.
A week off followed and you thought Craig Bellamy would have got into their heads, but it seemed like the opposite happened. Their first half against the Broncos, despite going to halftime 8-0 up, may have been the most clunky Melbourne have looked in attack all year.
While they defended their errors and kept Brisbane scoreless, they can’t start like that this weekend.
Luckily, the Storm turned it on in the second half, running away to a 30-0 win, but it still leaves plenty of questions over the men in purple.
History
Last five meetings
2017, Round 22 – Cowboys 8 defeated by Storm 26 at 1300 Smiles Stadium, Townsville
2017, Round 15 – Storm 23 defeat Cowboys 22 at AAMI Park, Melbourne
2016, qualifying final – Storm 16 defeat Cowboys 10 at AAMI Park, Melbourne
2016, Round 21 – Cowboys 8 defeated by Storm 16 at 1300 Smiles Stadium, Townsville
2016, Round 10 – Storm 15 defeat Cowboys 14 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Team news
Matt Scott has been named in the Cowboys’ reserves for the second straight week. The club captain is a long shot at playing, but just the listing makes Melbourne supporters nervous, even if he hasn’t played since Round 2.
Key players
While the Cowboys have two obvious options in Jason Taumalolo and Michael Morgan, I’m ignoring them both as we know exactly what they are going to produce – what they have been producing all finals.
Instead, the key man is Jake Granville. The hooker has been up and down this season, but you only need to go back as far as last year to know the sort of damage he can inflict.
He won’t play 80 minutes, so needs to make every single one count. His explosive dummy half running has a way of tiring out defenders, while his short kicking game close to the line is dangerous.
If he can take pressure off Morgan in terms of creativity and give fullback Lachlan Coote another option to work with, it could tilt the balance.
Like North Queensland, the Storm have a few obvious options in Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater, but they are aren’t the keys, because you know what they are going to do.
Cameron Munster, who provides so much extra spark, is the key.
If he can take the pressure off Cronk, who seems to have been feeling it a bit during the finals, and help with both the kicking and passing game, as well as look to run the ball at every opportunity, it’ll simply be too much for the opposition to handle.
Can Michael Morgan outplay Cooper Cronk?
This pair are probably going to be playing alongside each other as the Australian halves combination at the Rugby League World Cup in a month’s time. For now though, they are crucial to their respective teams’ chances.
We all know how well Cronk stands up in big games. He has done it in finals, grand finals, at Origin level. He has done it all alongside the rest of Melbourne’s big three.
But, after the Sharks knocked them over last year, can he recover and go back to the top, or will Morgan shine?
If the Melboune defence don’t adequately target Morgan, and he is allowed to kick with his recent accuracy, force repeat sets, and play with the vision he has displayed during the finals, then he’ll put his side on the front foot.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Melbourne play from in front and it’s game over
The Storm are the best front runners in the competition. While they are playing less of a grinding style this year with their exciting attack, they don’t lose often once they hit the front in a contest.
It’s been the way for many years. Cronk and Smith are two of the best game managers in the competition, and if you’re going to beat them, you can’t let them kick for the corners and bide their time, as opportunities inevitably fall their way.
How do Melbourne shutdown Taumalolo?
Shutdown is probably the wrong word to use when talking about the New Zealand lock. At best, an opposition pack hopes to contain the giant.
He averaged over 200 metres per game during the regular season, but is over the 250 mark in all three finals games so far, at over 12 metres per run – unheard of numbers.
Taumalolo was the Dally M winner last year, and it’s got to a point where if he doesn’t make 200 metres from 20 carries in a game, you sit in shock and try to work out what happened.
If the Storm are going to win, they must stop the best forward in the game.
Billy Slater makes all the difference in big games
I’m starting to sound like a broken record at this point, but the Storm probably would have won the 2016 grand final if Slater had played.
The Kid returned this year, and you only need to look at the way they have attacked to know Melbounre are a different team with him on the paddock.
To put it in numerical terms, Slater has ten tries and 16 assists from 20 games. That’s to go with 39 offloads and a swathe of line break and line break assists.
He is a match-winner, and a big-game player – he returned to the Origin arena because he is the best fullback in the game, possibly ever.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
North Queensland’s back five are oh so important
Last week, the Cowboys’ back five ran them out of trouble time and time again, giving them the position requried to win the game.
Coote is pivotal to their chances, and it’s little surprise that when he went off the boil in the 2016 finals, so did his team.
The rest of their back five, who have all be criticised at times this season, are all very good footy players too.
Antonio Winterstein is consistent and gets a job done, even on one leg, Kyle Feldt is a star in the making, and their centres have hit their stride in the finals.
It’s not unlike Justin O’Neill to play well when it counts – he is a State of Origin player after all – but last week’s performance from Kane Linnett was exceptional. Over 140 metres, a try, a try assist – you’d go as far as to say it was one of the best in his career.
So, who wins it?
As much as I’d love to see the fairytale victory for the Cowboys, it’s impossible to back them without predicting the Storm to play poorly. If both teams play at the peak of their powers, Melbourne win.
It’ll go the distance, and won’t be decided until the final half hour, but the Storm should soak up a premiership in the final few minutes, allowing Cooper Cronk to finish his career in purple at the top of the game.
Prediction: Storm by 10.
Key match information: NRL grand final
Kick-off: 7:15pm (AEST)
Venue: ANZ Stadium
TV: Live, Nine Network
Online: Live NRL live pass
Betting: Storm $1.28, Cowboys $3.80
Overall record: Played 35, Storm 25, Cowboys 10
Last meeting: 2017, Round 22 – Cowboys 8 defeated by Storm 26 at 1300 Smiles Stadium, Townsville
Last five: Storm 5, Cowboys 0
Record in finals: Played 3, Cowboys 2, Storm 1
Record at venue: Never played
Referees: Matt Cecchin and Gerrard SuttonMelbourne Storm
1. Billy Slater 2. Suliasi Vunivalu 3. William Chambers 4. Curtis Scott 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Jordan McLean 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Tohu Harris 13. Dale Finucane
Interchange: 14. Kenneath Bromwich 15. Tim Glasby 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Slade Griffin
Reserves: 18. Ryley Jacks 19. Robbie Rochow 20. Joe Stimson 21. Young TonumaipeaNorth Queensland Cowboys
1. Lachlan Coote 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Justin O’Neill 4. Kane Linnett 5. Antonio Winterstein 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Michael Morgan 8. John Asiata 9. Jake Granville 10. Scott Bolton 11. Gavin Cooper 12. Ethan Lowe 13. Jason Taumalolo
Interchange: 14. Ben Hampton 15. Coen Hess 16. Corey Jensen 17. Shaun Fensom
Reserves: 18. Ray Thompson 19. Javid Bowen 20. Braeden Uele 21. Matthew Scott
Don’t forget The Roar will carry live coverage and highlights of every NRL finals match.
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