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Here we are. 200 games have been played and won. Fourteen sides are on holidays and just two remain to fight out the 201st and final game of the 2017 season.
It’s the juggernaut versus the fairytale. The Empire versus the Rebels. The machine against the rage.
In fact, so monumental is this grand final that this preview cannot possibly fit into one article – there’s just too much to break down.
So today, we’ll look at the form of the North Queensland Cowboys and Melbourne Storm, the history between the sides, and the impact the whistleblowers will have on the game.
Tomorrow, we’ll analyse how each side’s attack matches up against the opposing defence, nominate the key players who will decide the game, and predict the winner and margin.
These two sides qualified for the finals in completely different ways.
The Storm dropped only four games on the way to claiming the minor premiership by six points. They had a bit of a scare against the Eels in the first round of the finals before blowing the Broncos away in their prelim.
The Cowboys snuck into eighth spot on the back of St George Illawarra Dragons’ choke in the last 15 minutes of the penultimate home-and-away match of the season. They then scraped over the line in extra time against the Sharks in the battle of fifth versus eighth, dominated the Eels, before dispatching the Roosters.
In all the games they were away from home and were the clear underdogs.
The Cowboys’ form coming into the finals was dodgy to say the least – they lost five of their last six home-and-away games. However, their form has since turned around. In each of their elimination games, they have clearly had the better completion and possession rates:
| Opponent | Completion rate | Possession rate | Error count | Penalty count | Extra time in possession |
| Sharks | 80% – 60% | 57% – 43% | 10 – 17 | 5 – 11 | 12.6 minutes |
| Eels | 85% – 74% | 55% – 45% | 9 – 13 | 2 – 4 | 8 minutes |
| Roosters | 90% – 68% | 58% – 42% | 5 – 13 | 2 – 5 | 12.8 minutes |
| Average | 85% – 67% | 56.6% – 43.3% | 8 – 14.3 | 3 – 6.6 | 11.1 minutes |
These dominant stats came on the back of a great strategy, well executed by the Cowboys, which gained good field position, built pressure and forced their opponents into errors.
However, they were also aided by their opponents’ brain explosions. Think Latrell Mitchell kicking out on the full from the kick-off. Twice.
The cold hard truth for the believers in the North Queensland fairytale going all the way is the Storm also have to come to this party with errors and brain explosions. Show me a player in the Storm roster who is at risk of brain explosions and I’ll show you a Sunshine Coast Falcons player.
So what of the Storm’s completion and possession rates? On the surface, I assume the Purple Horde is a well-oiled machine who metronomically complete their sets and dominate possession. But what do the stats say? Let’s look at their run of nine straight games running into this match.
| Opponent | Completion rate | Possession rate | Error count | Penalty count | Extra time in possession |
| Broncos | 82% – 70% | 48% – 52% | 10 – 14 | 2 – 5 | Minus 3.2 minutes |
| Eels | 79% – 87% | 50% – 50% | 9 – 7 | 5 – 9 | = |
| Raiders | 86% – 71% | 50% – 50% | 5 – 14 | 9 – 8 | = |
| Rabbitohs | 82% – 74% | 60% – 40% | 8 – 9 | 4 – 9 | 16 minutes |
| Knights | 72% – 76% | 52% – 48% | 12 – 11 | 9 -7 | 3.2 minutes |
| Roosters | 87% – 81% | 51% – 49% | 5 – 11 | 6 – 11 | 1.6 minutes |
| Cowboys | 76% – 71% | 50% – 50% | 9 – 14 | 9 – 7 | = |
| Sea Eagles | 79% – 79% | 54% – 46% | 10 – 10 | 7 – 7 | 6.4 minutes |
| Raiders | 77% – 68% | 50% – 50% | 8 – 13 | 9 – 9 | = |
| Average | 80% – 75% | 51.6% – 48.3% | 8.4 – 11.4 | 6.6 – 8 | 2.6 minutes |
Melbourne had the better completion rate in six of these nine games. And while they boast an average of 2.6 extra minutes with the ball per game, that figure is massively skewed by the mass of extra possession they had in the Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles games. Take those two out and they haven’t really been dominating possession.
These figures say the Cowboys’ recent play of high completion rate, low errors, and high time in possession could really give them a red-hot chance to beat the Storm.
However, it needs to be noted that, during this period, the minor premiers – in spite of these less-than-stellar completion and possession stats – have scored 290 points while only conceding 81 (an average of 32–9). This Storm side can really put on points in a hurry, given half a sniff.
The bad news for those dreaming of a Cowboys fairytale is that no side has ever won the premiership from outside the top four. In the 20 seasons of the NRL, there have been eight occasions that a side from outside the top four has made the decider. The seven before the Cowboys 2017 haven’t fared well.
| Year | Team | Ladder finish | Grand final score | Losing margin |
| 2017 | Cowboys | 8th | ? | ? |
| 2014 | Bulldogs | 7th | 30-6 | 24 |
| 2011 | Warriors | 6th | 24-10 | 14 |
| 2010 | Roosters | 6th | 32-8 | 24 |
| 2009 | Eels | 8th | 23-16 | 7 |
| 2005 | Cowboys | 5th | 30-16 | 14 |
| 1999 | Dragons | 6th | 20-18 | 2 |
| 1998 | Bulldogs | 9th | 38-12 | 26 |
| Average | 7th | 28-12 | 16 |
Conversely, on 14 occasions the eventual premier has gone through the finals undefeated – as the Storm will should they prevail tonight. In only five of the 19 seasons of the NRL has the eventual champ lost a game in the finals.
| Year | Team |
| 2015 | Cowboys |
| 2006 | Brisbane |
| 2004 | Bulldogs |
| 1999 | Melbourne |
| 1998 | Brisbane |
So, if the trends are followed, it looks pretty good for the Storm and pretty bad for the Cowboys.
If the Storm win, it will be on the back of ten straight victories. Their nine-game streak is already the best of 2017. How often have sides finished the season on such a streak? How many times has the streak ended on grand final day itself?
| Year | Premier | Streak to win GF | Runner up | Streak up to the GF |
| 2016 | Sharks | 3 | Storm | 3 |
| 2015 | Cowboys | 3 | Broncos | 2 |
| 2014 | Rabbitohs | 3 | Bulldogs | 3 |
| 2013 | Roosters | 4 | Sea Eagles | 2 |
| 2012 | Storm | 8 | Bulldogs | 3 |
| 2011 | Sea Eagles | 3 | Warriors | 2 |
| 2010 | Dragons | 5 | Roosters | 5 |
| 2009 | Storm | 5 | Eels | 3 |
| 2008 | Sea Eagles | 6 | Storm | 2 |
| 2007 | Storm | 8 | Sea Eagles | 3 |
| 2006 | Broncos | 4 | Storm | 4 |
| 2005 | Wests Tigers | 4 | Cowboys | 2 |
| 2004 | Bulldogs | 3 | Roosters | 6 |
| 2003 | Panthers | 7 | Roosters | 3 |
| 2002 | Roosters | 9 | Warriors | 3 |
| 2001 | Knights | 5 | Eels | 10 |
| 2000 | Broncos | 3 | Roosters | 2 |
| 1999 | Storm | 3 | Dragons | 5 |
| 1998 | Broncos | 3 | Bulldogs | 8 |
| Average | 4.7 | 3.7 |
In the NRL era, the Sydney Roosters class of 2002 has the best winning streak culminating in a premiership with nine straight. If Melbourne win on Sunday, it will break that record.
The same side has twice finished the season off with a premiership on the back of an eight-game winning streak: 2007 and 2012. The Storm’s 2012 triumph shows that they know how to finish off a season.
The average winning streak for the premiers is 4.7 games. The average winning streak for the runners-up coming into the grand final is 3.7. Only four times in the NRL era have sides with the better winning streak coming into the grand finals had that streak end on the biggest day of the year: the Bulldogs in 1998, the Eels in 2001, the Roosters in 2004 and the Roosters in 2010.
So, in general, winning form is good form it seems, rather than the side with the biggest streak being closer to their next loss.
Overall: This will be the 36th game between these sides. It stands at 25-10 in the Storm’s favour.
This season: They’ve met twice this season with the Storm winning both – 23-22 in Round 15 in Melbourne (sans Origin players) and 26-8 in Townsville in Round 22.
The last ten: The Storm have won seven of the last ten games between these two sides, going back to 2013. That includes winning the last five straight. The last time the Cowboys beat Melbourne was the 2015 preliminary final en route to the premiership.
At this venue: This will be the first game at ANZ Stadium between these two.
Finals: This will be the third final between these two sides, and the first grand final. It currently stands 2-1 in favour of the Cowboys. However, the last final between the two – the 2016 qualifying final in Melbourne – was won by the Storm 16-6.
(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
The Storm’s overall record
This will be Melbourne’s 527th game in the NRL. They’ve got a winning percentage of 64.5 per cent.
It will be their 43rd final in their 20 seasons. They have a 63.5 per cent winning record in finals.
They have been in nine of the last ten finals series. The only one they missed was 2010, following the salary cap scandal.
The Cowboys’ overall record
This will be the Cowboys’ 572nd game since entering the competition in 1995, 245 of which they’ve won with a win ratio of 42.85 per cent. This will be their 28th finals match, where they have won 15 with a winning ratio of 55.55 per cent.
North Queensland have played in seven of the last ten finals series, including the last six. Before this series, they had only got past the semis when they had finished in the top four.
In partnership
This is the fifth time this year that these two referees have officiated together. They did all three Origin games together and the Round 6 game between the Storm and the Sharks in Melbourne.
| Match | Total penalties |
| Storm/Sharks | 16 |
| SOO1 | 6 |
| SOO2 | 10 |
| SOO3 | 9 |
Finals
This pair also did the 2012 qualifying final between the Cowboys and the Broncos in Townsville.
This will be Cecchin’s 21st NRL finals match and his sixth Cowboys finals game. The boys from Townsville have won four of them. This is his eighth Storm final, but the purple horde have won just three under Cecchin.
Tonight will be Cecchin’s third grand final appointment. He officiated the Sea Eagles-Warriors decider in 2011 and last year’s Sharks-Storm clash.
This will be Gerard Sutton’s 18th finals game. He has done seven Cowboys finals of which the boys from far-north Queensland have won four. This will be only his second Storm finals match. The Storm lost the first match back in 2013.
(AAP Image/Action Photographics, Colin Whelan)
Tomorrow night will be Sutton’s third grand final appointment. He was the pocket ref in 2014 and in 2015 – the Cowboys’ triumph over the Broncos.
Individual records
This is Cecchin’s 279th NRL game, 46 of which have involved the Storm. Melbourne has won 27 (58.7 per cent) of them. He has done slightly fewer involving North Queenslad – 40, of which 21 (52.5 per cent) were won by the Cowboys.
This will be Gerard Sutton’s 215th career game. He has done 47 Cowboys games and 33 Melbourne ones. The Cowboys have won 20 of their matches under Sutton (42.5 per cent), while Melbourne have won 21 (63.6 per cent).
So, that’s that for today. Tomorrow, we’ll look at how the teams match up against each other, who the key players will be, and which of the two sides will take home this year’s premiership.