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Cowboys 2023 Outlook: After rapid rise from basement to penthouse, repeat success on horizon for Payten's posse

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13th February, 2023
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After the elation of the 2015 premiership, and coming close again to repeated success in 2017, North Queensland failed to play finals footy for the next four years.

Season 2021 was a real low year for the club, finishing in 15th spot. New coach Todd Payten was trying to pull the place apart in order to put it back together again, while dealing with the never-ending rumours of him butting heads with club legend Jason Taumalolo, and being questioned for the recruitment of veteran halfback Chad Townsend.

Many people tipped them for the wooden spoon last season, but instead, 2022 saw a resurgence no one could have anticipated.

The Cowboys became one of the most entertaining and successful teams of the year, falling just one game short of a grand final appearance. The squad had reached a level of fitness never seen before, JT13 was back to his wrecking-ball best, and Townsend turned out to be the leader and halfback the club had so desperately needed.

After surprising the competition last season, 2023 will see them with a target on their back. But they will be ready to do it all again.

The path to the trophy

Their attack was next level. Not afraid to try new things, throw the ball around and push the limit, they were the excitement machines of last season.

And their fitness was extraordinary – how did they do all those post-match press conferences without seeming out of breath?

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Some of the old heads really stood up out the back including 2022 top pointscorer Valentine Holmes, Kiwi international Peta Hiku, flyer Kyle Feldt and premiership-winning halfback Townsend. Then you had the young guys like Scott Drinkwater who found a home at fullback and finished the year fourth on the Dally M leaderboard, and Tom Dearden who went from being unwanted at the Broncos to forming a potent halves pairing with Townsend.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Then there were the big boys. Taumalolo was close to unstoppable, Coen Hess, Jordan McLean and Reuben Cotter were right alongside him ready to cause havoc. Reece Robson was a rocket out of dummy half, and made the third-most tackles from any player in the competition. And of course, there was 19-year-old Rookie of the Year Jeremiah Nanai, who had a season many could only dream of.

Even though they were flashy in attack, they backed it up with rock-solid defence, where games are won. They finished 2022 with the fewest offloads conceded, second-best for line breaks conceded, and third for tries conceded. Again, their peak fitness levels allowed them to keep coming and coming, with their defensive wall so difficult to penetrate.

All signs point to another brilliant season ahead. There is really not much in their way from premiership glory.

The danger signs ahead

When injury and suspension hit, it didn’t seem to affect them as badly as other sides, with a strong squad and a lot of depth ready to step up when required. They have lost workhorse forward Tom Gilbert and speedster Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, and while not superstars, their absence may be felt throughout the year.

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The biggest obstacle in their way is the Cowboys themselves. They need to move on from last year and now focus on 2023. Expecting it to just all happen again without continued hard work of the determination to go even better can be disastrous.

“Last year was really impressive, and we’re proud of that, but if we don’t improve and get better as a team, we’re only going to get beaten,” Hess told The Roar.

The pressure to recreate the magic from a season gone by can be tricky. If the first few games don’t go as expected, the team can quickly spiral under the pressure as well as the weight of expectations.

The rest of the competition will be ready to step up when they face them this year, knowing that they are real contenders.

But in the past five years, they have shown just how good at ‘snakes and ladders’ they are. They slipped from runners-up in 2017 to 13th in 2018, then skyrockets from 14th in 2021 to preliminary finalists in 2022. They know too well they can go backwards just as quickly as they can charge forwards.

 (Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)

The draw

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It’s a nice way to open the season with all of their first four games based in Queensland. Rounds 1, 3 and 4 are at home and their one away game in Brisbane. That proves a huge advantage to the Cowboys who are used to the Townsville heat in March.

The first few Origin matches with be a tough time, with a diluted side to take on the Eels in Round 13, then the Storm just four days after Origin I. They then take on the Panthers before Origin II, but they of course will be missing a lot of troops as well. They get a breather before Game 3, getting their first bye in Round 15.

They play the Eels and Panthers twice throughout the season, along with the Sharks and the Dolphins.

They have 16 games with a seven-day or more turnaround, with the remainder of their byes in Rounds 19 and 24.

The key trio: Jason Taumalolo, Valentine Holmes, Tom Dearden

Taumalolo silenced his critics with a phenomenal 2022, reaching the highs we have all been waiting to see him at again. Injury-free, seemingly loving his footy once more, the wrecking ball with tree trunks for legs deservedly took out the club’s 2022 player of the year, and will be ready to do it all again in 2023.

Holmes was just superb last season after his move to the centres, and the NRL veteran will be a key to the leadership in the backline once more this season.

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Showing a maturity beyond his years, Dearden became the perfect understudy to Cam Munster in Queensland’s Game 3 Origin win. He also showed his dedication to the team after telling the doctor ‘If I’m going to miss a month, I want you to chop it off’ in fear of not playing finals footy after suffering from a ruptured testicle. Exactly who you want on your side.

Tom Dearden of the Cowboys runs the ball

Tom Dearden (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

Player under pressure: Jeremiah Nanai

Not because he has been underperforming and it out the door, obviously quite the opposite.

Nanai’s 2022 saw him become Dally M Rookie of the Year, Second Rower of the Year, the only non-winger in the top 10 try scorers for the season, a Maroons debutant and a Kangaroos World Cup winner.

Many will expect him to continue the same level of success.

The hidden gem: Riley Price

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There is a bit of noise around the son of Steve Price and nephew of another Maroons legend in Brent Tate. With genetics like that, Price should be very valuable.

Coach’s safety rating 

The 2022 Dally M Coach of the Year is safe and secure.

Cowboys coach Todd Payten looks on

(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

Premiership odds

They are at $12 at PlayUp fifth overall between the Bunnies and the Sharks

Predicted finish 

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I see them making it to the grand final – but can they go all the way?

Predicted Round 1 team

  1. Scott Drinkwater
  2. Kyle Feldt
  3. Peta Hiku
  4. Valentine Holmes
  5. Murray Taulagi
  6. Tom Dearden
  7. Chad Townsend
  8. Jordan McLean
  9. Reece Robson
  10. Reuben Cotter
  11. Coen Hess
  12. Jeremiah Nanai
  13. Jason Taumalolo
  14. Jake Granville
  15. Griffin Neame
  16. Jack Gosiewski
  17. James Tamou

Others: Luciano Leilua (stood down), Helium Luki (injured), Mitch Dunn (injured), Ben Hampton, Brendan Elliot, Gehamat Shibasaki, Jake Bourke, Jamayne Taunoa-Brown, Jordan Lipp, Laitia Moceidreke, Riley Price, Taniela Sadrugu, Tom Chester, Jai Hansen (development), Jodeci Baker-Tiraha (development), Ragarive Wavik (development).

Season draw

RoundFixtureDateTimeVenue
1Cowboys v RaidersSaturday, 5th March5:30pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
2Cowboys v BroncosFriday, 10th March8:05pmSuncorp Stadium, Brisbane
3Cowboys v WarriorsSaturday 18th March5:30pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
4Cowboys v TitansSaturday 25th March5.30pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
5Cowboys v BulldogsSaturday 2nd April6.15pmAccor Stadium, Sydney
6Cowboys v DolphinsFriday, 7th April8:00pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
7Cowboys v WarriorsSaturday, 15th April 3.00pmMt Smart Stadium, Auckland
8Cowboys v KnightsSaturday, 22nd April 7.35pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
9Cowboys v SharksThursday, 27th April 7.50pmPointsBet Stadium, Sydney
10Cowboys v RoostersSunday, 7th May 3:00pmSuncorp Stadium
11Cowboys v DragonsSaturday, 13th May 5:30pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
12Cowboys v TigersSaturday, 20th May5:30pmLeichhardt Oval, Sydney
13Cowboys v EelsFriday, 26th May 8:00pmCommBank Stadium, Sydney
14Cowboys v StormSunday, 4th June 4:05pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
15Bye
16Cowboys v Panthers Friday, 16th June4:05pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
17Cowboys v RabbitohsSunday, 25th June4:05pmAccor Stadium, Sydney
18Cowboys v Tigers Saturday, 1st July5:30pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
19Bye   
20Cowboys v Sea EaglesSaturday, 15 July5:30pm4 Pines Park, Sydney
21Cowboys v EelsSaturday, 22nd July7:35pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
22Cowboys v TitansSunday, 30th July4:05pmCbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
23Cowboys v BroncosSaturday, 5 August 3.00pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
24Bye 
25Cowboys v SharksThursday, 17th August 7:50 pmQueensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
26Cowboys v Dolphins Friday, 25th August  8:00pmSuncorp Stadium, Brisbane
27Cowboys v Panthers Saturday, 2 September 5.30pmBlueBet Stadium, Penrith

To view full NRL draw, click here

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