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You can shut the gates on the finals. The eight horses have bolted. As supporters, we all love predicting and analysing the permutations of the home-and-away rounds leading into September.
For fans of sides already in the eight, it’s about calculating whether their team can stay there. For those on the outside looking in, it’s about creating paths that will lead to a taste of September action.
The season is not even half over, but that can all stop now.
The top eight teams still must jostle for position, particularly with the historical and very real importance of what a top-four spot means when it comes to winning the premiership.
The remaining ten are simply building for a future beyond 2014, and the draft order is still to be settled.
Brisbane were a likely bottom-four candidate before the season began, and a string of injuries to key players has anchored them to the foot of the table. They may well rise off it, but it won’t be by far.
GWS have blown all credibility gained from their early season victories over Sydney and Melbourne, having regressed beyond belief with two successive 100-plus point defeats to sides that were playing particularly poorly beforehand.
St Kilda and Melbourne were seen as wooden spoon contenders in the pre-season, but both have given their fans hope beyond just wins and losses. The Saints started brightly but have understandably fallen away, while the Demons are noticably improving each time they take the field.
Still, they are no-one’s idea of a finals team.
Some had the young Western Bulldogs pegged as a final eight smoky before the season began, but frankly, it was hard to see where they were coming from. The Dogs are on the right path of gradual improvement, but still have holes all over the field, gaps that may well be filled by currently listed players given more time and experience.
Richmond have been abysmal in 2014, both relative to expectation and as a standalone football side. Let’s not read too much into the win over the Giants, as a margin of that size is always about the ineptitude of the losing side rather than the awesomeness of the winner.
Tigers fans will look at their draw with renewed hope. Die-hard supporters know that hope will be extinguished by one or more poor performances quicker than an Australian man’s chances at the French Open tennis. Their unusually high percentage for a team at 3-6, thanks to the GWS massacre, will keep them in the hunt for ninth for a while yet.
Carlton are a middle-of-the-road side whose supporter base gets over-excited about their finals chances when their team beats other middle-of-the-road sides. They have to face Geelong twice, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Sydney, Fremantle and Port between now and the end of the season, and won’t go close to winning one of them.
Essendon have shown themselves to be a whole lot of average after some bright spots earlier in the year. The fears about their forward-line have been well founded, going from dysfunctional to non-existent during games. Only the bottom four sides on the ladder have scored less than them so far.
People that rate Adelaide higher than they should believe the Crows outfit that turned up to defeat Collingwood in Round 9 is the ‘real’ one.
All the evidence gathered over the last year and a half suggests otherwise. Thumped by Geelong, Port and Sydney in 2014. Close defeats against Melbourne and Carlton. A nine-point win over the Dogs. Yep, they’ve found their level.
West Coast have defeated the Bulldogs, Melbourne, St Kilda and GWS, with only one of those wins coming in their last six matches. Hardly the recipe for September.
Adam Simpson still doesn’t have enough elite midfield talent to work with. Eagles fans can plan their holidays, or jealously watch their Fremantle cousins have a tilt at maiden premiership glory.
At the other end of the ladder are Port Adelaide. Having taken down Geelong, Fremantle and Hawthorn already, they will start favourite in at least seven of their next eight matches. Lock them into a top-four finish.
We know everything there is to know about Geelong and Hawthorn, and they’ll be there come September. Neither have had close to their best 22 out on the park this year, and the Hawks’ injuries may yet prove fatal to their top-four chances.
Sydney are finally building ominously after a slow beginning, but wouldn’t want to finish fifth purely because they couldn’t beat GWS in Round 1. Fremantle finally showed their best before the bye, taking down the Cats with a complete team performance.
The Swans and Dockers are still my tip as grand finalists, which will come as a surprise to those who read my critical pieces on them several weeks ago.
Collingwood have too much top-end talent to miss the finals from a position of six wins and three losses, with their youth showing enough mettle to ensure they won’t suffer too much by comparison. The Pies will be better next year and beyond, but will get more finals exposure this time around too.
Gold Coast are sitting third on the ladder thanks to their heady mix of irresistible talent combined with a dream draw. They’ve still got more than enough winnable games on the run home to finish in the top eight, and with belief now on the rise, they’ll be a dangerous opponent in an elimination final.
Most people will peg North Melbourne as the most vulnerable of those inside the current eight.
But as The Roar‘s Michael DiFabrizio tweeted on Friday, with 13 rounds to go North only have two more matches against teams currently in the top eight.
Even a side with bipolar tendencies such as theirs will be able to capitalise on this friendly fixture. The Roos have been good enough to beat teams like Fremantle and Sydney on the road, and are the only side to take down Port this season. They’ll be playing finals.
So there you have it. The eight clubs that will be playing finals, and the ten that won’t.
You can argue, harangue, debate, dispute and discuss, but none of it will change any of the above. Let’s not pretend otherwise.