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Every year we wonder if a team can win the premiership from outside the top four, and almost every year we are denied. This century, the Western Bulldogs of 2016 are still the only team to go all the way.
Mostly, it’s just common sense. In order for the fifth placed team to win the flag, they have to beat three teams that have proven better than them over a six month period, in three consecutive weeks. It’s unlikely.
However, the pre-finals bye has evened up the chances at least. Since the Dogs in 2016, two other teams have made the grand final from outside the top four: GWS in 2019 and the Dogs again in 2021. All top four teams playing in the preliminary finals has happened twice: 2017 and COVID-interrupted 2020.
Based on this seven year trend, it’s more likely than not one of the top four teams will go out in straight sets, and one of 5th-8th will at least make it to the final four.
Carlton holds the whip hand when it comes to creating a fairytale run this year.
Patrick Cripps. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Sydney has won six of their last seven coming into finals but have barely beaten anyone of note, often just squeaking over the line. The form of GWS in the second half of the year has been very solid, but they probably lack the quality and are perhaps too reliant on Toby Greene at the key moments. St Kilda are not there yet, but their time is coming.
Which leaves Carlton.
The all-important midfield stacks up – Brownlow Medalist Patrick Cripps, Rising Star Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra as a wonderful third wheel, and George Hewett and Matt Kennedy are excellent and hard-working grunt depth when fit. Blake Acres out on a wing has had arguably his finest year in his first season at the Blues.
Carlton’s defence is standing up, led by a back-in-form Jacob Weitering. Since they turned their season around in Round 14, the Blues have averaged 67 points a game against them. Mitch McGovern will play 20 games in a season for the first time since his debut year in 2016, which also helps behind the ball, while Adam Saad and Nic Newman have proven a devastating running combo.
Obviously any defence needs the rest of the field working well in order to protect the ball from coming in quickly and easily, and Carlton’s pressure has certainly ramped up in the back half of the year.
Up forward, the Blues have what many would say is the competition’s best player in Charlie Curnow. There is very little he can’t do, and with 27.4 from his last 31 scoring shots at goal, his kicking boots are well and truly on for September.
Harry McKay is a concern, it must be said. The horrid missed goals, the lack of calm and sense of panic when he loses confidence in front of the big sticks, and the deflating impact it has on the team.
Harry McKay. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The fact remains Carlton had a less than 50% winning record with McKay in the side this year, and a 100% winning record when he wasn’t. Not just that, but the Blues beat Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Melbourne when he wasn’t there – their three best wins.
The other problem Carlton has is a big one – the lack of finals experience. Teams just do not win premierships in their first tilt at finals as a playing group. Adelaide in 1997 is probably the closest in ‘recent’ history, but even then they did have a group of players play two finals in 1993.
Geelong in 2007, Richmond in 2017 and Melbourne in 2021 won the flag after missing finals the previous year, and the Bulldogs seemingly came from nowhere in 2016. But the Cats and Tigers had made finals in 2004-05 and 2013-15 respectively, Melbourne had made a prelim in 2018, while the Dogs had also at least tasted finals in 2015.
The Blues are coming in blank, especially for their biggest names and most important players.
Cripps, Docherty, Cerra, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow and McKay haven’t played a final between them. The same goes for a lot of the support crew that have only known a Carlton jumper. A few have played one or two, like Acres, Newman and Saad.
Every final played will be a valuable experience, but it will feel like a wasted season if the Blues get bundled out in week one. They should have gained experience last year, but blew it late in the piece. They further they go this September, the better they could get, and that’s the chance for them to go all the way – if they are like a horse that improves in the second, third and fourth run of a preparation.
The stage is of course set for a huge week two clash, if Carlton can get the best of Sydney. They get to play Collingwood or Melbourne – two teams they have already beaten, and the very two teams that cost them a finals berth last year, under the most agonizing of circumstances.
It’s up to the Blues now, to create their own history.